Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 22nd January

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Everton vs Aston Villa

 

Everton

Scored – 24

Conceded – 34

Both teams scored – 12/19

Home games both teams scored – 6/9

over 2.5 goals – 12/19

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/9

Corners – 4.05

Corners per home game – 4.89

Yellow cards – 1.95

Yellow cards per home game – 2

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 27

Conceded – 32

Both teams scored – 12/20

Away games both teams scored – 5/10

over 2.5 goals – 13/20

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/10

Corners – 5

Corners per Away game – 6.30

Yellow cards – 2.05

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.30

Everton begin life after Rafa Benetez here against Villa, which for neutrals is a little bit of a shame with Digne who had a very public falling out with Benetez at Everton returning to Goodison Park just a week after he left to sign for Aston Villa, which would have been a nice sub plot today. All of the last 3 Villa league games and 6 of their last 8 have seen both teams score. Their last game was a memorable one as they drew 2-2 with Man United thanks to an 81st minute equaliser from new signing Phillipe Coutinho who was making his debut. I feel we should get a very entertaining game here today. Eveton will need a response in front of their home crowd and I feel the crowd may just be an extra bit vocal today in response to them getting their wish of Rafa leaving the club. Everton lost to Norwich last time out which ultimately proved to be the last straw for the former Liverpool boss who made the switch to the blue side of Merseyside. I feel both sides will score here today, and whilst Villa would be favoured to get the win, I feel the home support and need for a response in the Everton camp could see the game end in a draw. Corners look a good bet from the stats with Everton consistent and Villa have the 3rd highest away corner average in the league. Cards look a very good bet as the stats would suggest but also I feel this game will boil over at times. There are just so many subplots to this game.Ex Liverpool player and club legend Gerrard bringing his side to Goodison Park, with ex Liverpool player Phillipe Coutinho in the squad, plus Luca Digne who just 2 weeks ago was playing for Everton returns playing in Villa colours today. Everton fan favourite Duncan Ferguson will be taking caretaker charge so will have his side ready to go, and fans and players will be desperate for a good start to life now Rafa has gone, so i feel we could see quite a few cards here today. I see a very entertaining and feisty game that sometimes boils over and ends in a 2-2 draw.

2-2 correct score – 15/1 Smarkets (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 11/2 Skybet (2 points)

60+ match booking points – 3/1 Skybet (2 points)

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Brentford vs Wolves

 

Brentford

Scored – 25

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 12/22

Home games both teams scored – 6/11

over 2.5 goals – 12/22

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 3.82

Corners per home game – 4.36

Yellow cards – 1.82

Yellow cards per home game – 1.64

 

Wolves

Scored – 17

Conceded – 15

Both teams scored – 5/20

Away games both teams scored – 2/10

over 2.5 goals – 4/20

Away games over 2.5 goals – 1/10

Corners – 4.35

Corners per Away game – 4.90

Yellow cards – 1.70

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.80

One of the less exciting games of the weekend on paper, but anyone who is a fan of old fashioned, arm wrestle type games I feel this may be your cup of tea. Brentford have proven they can get involved in open attacking games this season and solidify and be difficult to beat when they need to be, and I feel today may be a case of being difficult to beat as the game most likely will not be too open or end to end for the majority. Wolves games have been extremely low on goals this season, with only relegation contenders Norwich and Newcastle scoring less goals than them. Though, they have also not conceded many goals with only Manchester City conceding fewer than Bruno Lage’s men this season. They have a very consistent way of playing which can sometimes be boring for the neutral, but it is seeming to be effective as they sit in 8th place at the time of writing. I feel this game has draw written all over it and see it being either 0-0 or 1-1, in a game that will be a tough watch at times. Another thing I have noticed about Wolves this year but also Brentford at times, is they are happy to play the game so to speak. Wolves in previous seasons have moaned about players diving, play acting, time wasting and trying to get other players booked and sent off. This season they are one of the worst for it and any game where they are leading entering the final 20 minutes is sure to be broken up with numerous injuries and time wasting stunts. So I feel we will be in for a low scoring or no score draw, where cards also look to be a decent betting angle.

The match to be a draw and under 2.5 match goals – 5/2 Skybet (2 points)

50+ match booking points – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

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Leeds vs Newcastle

 

Leeds

Scored – 24

Conceded – 39

Both teams scored – 14/20

Home games both teams scored – 7/10

over 2.5 goals – 12/20

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/10

Corners – 4.50

Corners per home game – 5.90

Yellow cards – 2.65

Yellow cards per home game – 2.40

 

Newcastle

Scored – 20

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 14/20

Away games both teams scored – 6/9

over 2.5 goals – 10/20

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/9

Corners – 4.25

Corners per Away game – 4.33

Yellow cards – 2.45

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.89

Another crucial game in the relegation picture as Newcastle who yet again found a way to throw away 2 points last time out against Watford visiting Leeds who have won back to back Premier league games after they followed up a 3-1 win against Burnley with a surprise 3-2 win away at West Ham. 5 of the last 6 Leeds league games have seen both teams score and all 5 of those games had at least 4 goals in them and when you add this to 3 of the last 4 Newcastle league games having both teams score, there is reason to be optimistic for goals here today. Leeds style of play often leads to entertaining end to end games and I don’t feel like Newcastle’s ability to keep possession is of a good enough standard to stop this game becoming open and end to end. Newcastle threw away a chance to get out the relegation zone in their last game and depending on the result in the Watford Norwich game on Friday night, they could be coming here 5 points from safety, and a Leeds win would see them move 15 points ahead of Newcastle in the table, so this looks a crucial game for both sides. I think we will see both teams score, as whilst neither of these sides can be counted on defensively, they do both have attacking players who can cause problems and know where the goal is. Corners looks a solid angle, especially with the type of game I feel this will be leading to both sides having chances to get forward and into the wide channels to put balls into the box, but cards is the clear standout from the stats and will hopefully be another profitable betting angle in what will be an entertaining game. Leeds have found ways to win in their last couple of games whilst Newcastle have found ways to not win, and I feel that may be the case again here as Leeds just do enough to run out 3-2 winners.

3-2 Leeds correct score – 24/1 Smarkets (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

50+ match booking points – 5/6 Skybet (2 points)

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Man United vs West Ham

 

Man United

Scored – 35

Conceded – 30

Both teams scored – 13/21

Home games both teams scored -5/10

over 2.5 goals – 11/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/10

Corners – 5.43

Corners per home game – 5.60

Yellow cards – 2.14

Yellow cards per home game – 1.80

 

West Ham

Scored – 41

Conceded – 30

Both teams scored – 15/22

Away games both teams scored – 6/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 5.82

Corners per Away game – 5.55

Yellow cards – 1.32

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.36

United come here after a decent win against Brentford in their last league game, though they will expect a tougher test here against 4th placed West Ham who are looking to bounce back after losing at home to Leeds in their last league game. The Hammers sit in 4th spot with United in 7th, though there are only 2 points separating the sides with United having played a game less, so West Ham will be desperate to get all 3 points here to extend the gap on a rival for the 4th champions league place. Whilst Man City have blown the title race wide apart, it does still look as though Liverpool and Chelsea will finish in 2nd and 3rd, so clubs like West Ham and Man United both seem to be fighting it out for 4th spot. This looks like a good game for bets as in terms of corners these are two of the most consistent teams in the league for hitting at least ⅘ corners a game, and whilst West Ham are on the lower end of the card averages, United have been seeing quite a few cards all season long and their pace on the counter attack can easily see West Ham pick up a booking or 2. I expect both teams to score in this game as United have the attacking quality to score against anyone, and whilst West Ham are a very good attacking side, United also have the inconsistency in defence to concede against anyone. In front of their home fans I  expect United to do enough to come out on top. In what is a weekend filled with entertaining matches I feel this will be no different as United run out 2-1 winners in a game that is also good for bets.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 10+ booking points each team – 9/4 Skybet (2 points)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 11/10 Skybet (3 points)

Man United to win 2-1 – 17/2 bet365 (1 point)

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Southampton vs Man City

 

Southampton

Scored – 25

Conceded – 33

Both teams scored –  13/21

Home games both teams scored – 6/10

over 2.5 goals – 12/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/10

Corners – 5.90

Corners per home game – 5.70

Yellow cards – 2

Yellow cards per home game – 1.90

 

Man City

Scored – 54

Conceded – 13

Both teams scored – 7/22

Away games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 12/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 8.50

Corners per Away game – 8

Yellow cards – 1.36

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.55

Southampton come here after losing 3-1 to Wolves in their last league game, whilst City managed to grind out a 1-0 win at home to Chelsea to strengthen their already very strong grip on The Premier League title. Southampton have seen 7 of their last 8 and all of their last 5 league games end with both teams scoring, but they will do well to keep that record going here as they face the best defence in the league and a team who are in absolute top form. City are 11 points clear of Liverpool, with Jurgen Klopp’s side having a game in hand on them. After beating Chelsea last time City are now 12 points clear of Chelsea with a game in hand so can extend that gap to 15 points, and it is very difficult to see them dropping any points right now. Southampton will not roll over and should make a game of it, and they did actually beat City in the Premier League here 1-0 back in 2020, and they held them to a 0-0 draw away at the Etihad earlier this season. So Saint’s players will not be without hope, but it is still difficult to see them leaving with anything today. Corners looks to be a strong bet as City are always at the top of the corner averages, and Southampton themselves average nearly 6 corners per game. I don’t feel this is a game to be getting stuck into cards, Southampton are likely to sit deep and keep City in front of them with Pep Guardiola’s side probing side to side looking for a chink in the armour. I expect the Southampton resistance to be broken numerous times as City run out convincing winners.

City to win 4-0 – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

Author: Eva Gray