Day two of the Dante meeting includes the headline race, and a trial for the Derby where some of the best 3 year old colts will be battling it out to see who might stand a chance at Epsom. We have a favourite who won a maiden as a two year old, impressively, but sent off at 11/1 and hasn’t been seen since. He is priced up purely on reputation and for all he may win you need to be completely bonkers to be backing him at 9/4. Magisterial, like Desert Crown, will improve but will have to take a big step forward on what he has achieved. He may well do but at 3/1 he also looks on the short side. Royal Patronage represents the Guineas form and he ran well in 8th but might be a level below here. The one with the tried and tested form at the top level is El Bodegon who won a Group 1 in France as a two year old, and a race that is already working out incredibly well as three year old form with the likes of Stone Age and Buckaroo in behind. The ground will be a bit quicker than what he has raced on so far which is the only question mark but at 7/2 he stands out at the prices and can’t go unbacked.
In the opening handicap we don’t have a huge field but it might pay to be drawn a little lower still where Fine Wine should take them along at a fair clip. It’s enough to make me want to take on the favourite Raasel at the prices anyway for all he has very solid claims of getting his second win this season. The one I am interested in is Alligator Alley who was a Listed winner at York as a two year old for Joseph O’Brien. He’s since moved to O’Meara and is down to a mark of 95 which looks lenient, especially based on his Conditions run last time on his first outing for the new stable where he ran a credible third splitting 100 rates horses. This is his first run in a handicap and I expect him to go very close.
In contrast the 3.00 mile handicap has all the pace on the high side where Isla Kai will be attempting to make all and Garden Oasis will be prominent too. The one I will chance is Ataser who is only 4 and lightly raced. He’s won at York before and then followed up at Doncaster off this mark. He’s only raced twice over a mile, once in the Britannia where he wasn’t at his best and eased down when out of it, and his comeback run at Newmarket where he made a pleasing return despite running wide. He has a lot in his favour here and is on the right part of the track so and I certainly think he will outrun his price.
I am praying there are no non-runners but I do think Guilded is a cracking each-way bet in the 4.10 Listed race. She is only a Novice winner but ran some cracking races in top company as a two year old. She should strip fitter for her run at Chantilly where she was slightly disappointing but was well backed suggesting she’s trained on. She get the fillies allowance and although there are some decent performers here she is a solid choice.
1.50 – Alligator Alley 11/1 1pt EW (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3)
3.00 – Ataser 20/1 0.75pts EW (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
3.35 – El Bodegon 7/2 2pts Win (bet365)
4.10 – Guilded 9/1 0.75pts EW (Will Hill 1/5 1,2,3)