Sunday 17th April – Premier League stats and best bets

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Newcastle vs Leicester

 

Newcastle

Scored – 34

Conceded – 54

Both teams scored – 19/31

Home games both teams scored – 10/15

over 2.5 goals – 14/31

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/15

Corners – 4.39

Corners per home game – 4

Yellow cards – 2.26

Yellow cards per home game – 2

 

Leicester

Scored – 45

Conceded –  48

Both teams scored – 19/29

Away games both teams scored – 11/14

over 2.5 goals – 18/29

Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/14

Corners – 4.97

Corners per Away game – 5.50 

Yellow cards – 1.38

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.71

Despite losing 3 of their last 4 league games, Newcastle look to have done enough to stay in the top flight as they are 10 points above 18th placed Burnley. They beat Wolves 1-0 in their last game thanks to a penalty from Chris Wood. Leicester reached the semi-finals of The Europa Conference League in midweek thanks to a 2-1 win against PSV, and are unbeaten in their last 3 Premier League games with 2-1 wins against Crystal Palace and Brentford, and a 1-1 draw with Man United. Leicester do have games in hand on all teams around them, and in some cases 3 games in hand, but they sit in 9th spot, 11 points behind 6th placed West Ham and would have to win most of their remaining games to have any chance of getting back in the fight for top 6, and as the winner of The Europa Conference League gets a a spot in next years Europa League, I am assuming that their European exploits will be the top priority now for Brendan Rodgers side. Leicester won 4-0 when the sides met in the League back in December, but I don’t see this game being as one sided. I think there is a good chance that we see both teams score here, at Home Newcastle will always create opportunities and with Chris Wood they now have a striker who can take advantage of those opportunities. If Leicester play their best team, then they will definitely be able to cause Newcastle problems, but even if Brendan Rodgers decides to rest a few of his first choice players, the back up’s will be desperate to force their way into the side for their European Semi-final and that should lead to them looking to attack and create chances. It should be quite an even game, so I feel corners is a good bet as I don’t see either team dominating the other. Games at St James Park are always full of emotion, but I don’t see this being a massive game for cards. I could be wrong as both sides have good, quick attacking players, as well as players  who like to put a foot in, but I feel the Leicester players will want to not get injured and some Newcastle games under Eddie Howe have become quite slow affairs, and if either side are a goal up entering the closing stages I would expect a lot of breaks in play with injuries and cramp which will not favor cards. I could be wrong as both sides are capable of getting involved in end to end and open games, but I feel this could be quite a slow burner and we see them split the points with a 1-1 draw.

1-1 correct score – 6/1 bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

West Ham vs Burnley

 

West Ham

Scored – 51

Conceded – 42

Both teams scored – 20/32

Home games both teams scored – 12/16

over 2.5 goals – 18/32

Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/16

Corners – 5.25

Corners per home game – 5.31

Yellow cards –  1.31

Yellow cards per home game – 1.31

 

Burnley

Scored – 25

Conceded – 44

Both teams scored – 13/30

Away games both teams scored – 7/15

over 2.5 goals – 11/30

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/15

Corners – 4.67

Corners per Away game – 4.20

Yellow cards – 1.80

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.80

Two teams that are in a very different mental space right now. Burnley come here having sacked Sean Dyche after 10 years in charge, which many deem a very strange decision at this point of the season. Club Captain Ben Mee will be acting in a player/coach role for this game with some support from their academy director Paul Jenkins, and the U23’s coach Mike Jackson. A 2-0 loss to Norwich in their last game proved to be the result that got Dyche the sack, with his side sitting in 18th spot, 4 points from the safety of 17th placed Everton. I do feel it is far too early to be writing off Burnley though, it has been well documented just how tough a run in Everton have, and Burnley have some games that look very winnable if they can rediscover any sort of form. West Ham come here flying high having reached The Europa League semi-finals with a 3-0 win away at Lyon in mid week. They now play German club Eintracht Frankfurt who stunned Spanish Giants Barcelona in their Quarter Final, for a spot in the final. In the League West Ham sit  in 6th spot, 6 points off 4th placed Spurs having played a game more. All sides around them in the top 4 race have games in hand on David Moyes men so it looks like their best chance of definitely Champions League football, but almost any European Football next season may be to win The Europa League. They will definitely not roll over in their remaining league game though, and should David Moyes rotate his squad you can bet that the players who get an opportunity will be desperate to make an impression to be involved in the squad for The Europa League semi. Burnley will be the fresher side, as the physical and emotional toll of Thursday night will surely still be affecting some West Ham players, who have had a long season with regular Thursday night football. I think Burnley will be disappointed if they don’t leave here with at least a point. With them being 4 points behind Everton and having the exact same goal difference, every single point is crucial and Everton have some games remaining where it would be no surprise to see them ship a few goals, so a point here and potentially getting the gap to 3 points could be huge. It ended in a 0-0 draw when the sides met earlier this season and I can see this being a similarly close and low scoring game here. Burnley are the type of side who can grind out a result when they need it, and I feel we could see that happen here as they hold West Ham and leave with a point. From a betting point of view this is not a game that I am massively excited about. Corners looks a relatively good angle from the stats, but neither side are the type I would want to be banking on in that department. West Ham have a pretty low card average and their players will not want to get injured, so I don’t see them improving their card average much here. Burnley are not stupid, and whilst there may be times where they need to give away a free kick or take a booking to stop an attack, they will want to keep the crowd quiet and will be more than happy with a slow and cagey game with lots of breaks in play, so cards is not an angle that excited me too much here either. The FA Cup semi-finals will take center stage this weekend and I feel that the two Premier League games on today could both be quite dull and slow. I see a low scoring draw as Burnley escape with a point.

The match to be a draw and under 2.5 goals – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray