Saturday 16th April – Premier League stats and best bets

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Spurs vs Brighton

 

Spurs

Scored – 56

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 12/31

Home games both teams scored – 6/15

over 2.5 goals – 19/31

Home games over 2.5 goals – 11/15

Corners – 5.10

Corners per home game – 5.60

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per home game – 1.67

 

Brighton

Scored – 28

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 15/31

Away games both teams scored – 10/15

over 2.5 goals – 8/31

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/15

Corners – 5.48

Corners per Away game – 4.67

Yellow cards – 1.97

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.07

Spurs come here in fine form having won their last 4 games, scoring 14 goals and conceding just 2 in those 4 games. They have taken control of the battle for top 4 and right now it looks a straight shoot out between them and rivals Arsenal for 4th spot, as Man United and West Ham are both 6 points behind Antonio Conte’s men. Spurs 4 game winning run that they are on actually started against Brighton with a 2-0 win away from home.Brighton bounced back to form in their last game as they did Spurs a huge favor and beat Arsenal 2-1 at The Emirates, but Spurs will know that means they come here with a bit of confidence. Spurs could have easily beaten Brighton more than 2-0 in their meeting just a month ago, as they had 17 shots with 7 on target.Brighton themselves had 15 shots but not a single one found the target. Each team received 2 yellow cards in their last meeting and Brighton are not the type of side to come here and roll over, and they themselves will be targeting a top half finish which would have to be seen as a successful season for Grant Potter’s men. I feel we could get an entertaining game to watch here. I expect Spurs to come out on top though I feel there is a good chance that Brighton could score and cause Spurs problems. Corners looks a good angle with both teams over 5 corners a game on their season average. Given that they only played each other a month ago, and both teams received a couple of bookings in that game I feel we could see a few cards here, especially if the game remains close as Spurs and their home supporters will know how crucial a win here could be. I see Spurs running out 3-1 winners in an entertaining game.

Spurs to win 3-1 – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Harry Kane to score first and Spurs to win 3-1 – 50/1 Skybet (1/2 Point) – This is a boosted special on Skybet. I feel like 3-1 is a good correct score bet so this is just too big a price for me to not have a bit on

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 match booking points – 5/4 Skybet (2 points)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

60+ match booking points – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

 

Man United vs Norwich

 

Man United

Scored – 49

Conceded – 42

Both teams scored – 19/31

Home games both teams scored – 8/16

over 2.5 goals – 14/31

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/16

Corners – 5.32

Corners per home game – 5.25

Yellow cards – 2.06

Yellow cards per home game – 1.88

 

Norwich

Scored – 20

Conceded – 63

Both teams scored – 12/31

Away games both teams scored – 4/15

over 2.5 goals – 18/31

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/15 

Corners – 4.39

Corners per Away game – 3.33

Yellow cards – 1.58

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.60

Man United come here with their season in ruins. What started as such a promising season with club legend Ole Gunner Solskjaer at the wheel seeming to start to get a tune out of his players, and the return of Cristiano Ronaldo, has ended with them potentially missing out on even the Europa League next season. Off the field issues still plague the side with Mason Greenwood back in the headlines recently, as well as Cristiano Ronaldo landing in some hot water over an incident with an Everton fan as he walked off the pitch following their 1-0 defeat last week, plus the constant talk of who will be the manager next season and incoming and outgoing players. There is the added distraction of talk about another fan protest before this game, which whilst it has been explicitly stated will be a peaceful protest, it is not soo long ago that they had a Premier League game against Liverpool called off due to United fans invading the stadium and the pitch in protest at the owners and current situation the club find themselves in. It’s not often that a side bottom of the table facing almost certain relegation will come to United and possibly have an edge when it comes to mental clarity and being able to focus on the game. Norwich did beat Burnley in their last game which should help them get some confidence, but they are still 7 points from safety with 7 games to go and need a miracle. A win or even a draw for Norwich here would be a very good result, and they will have hope given the situation United find themselves in, but I don’t see them getting anything from this game today. United have very good players and I feel they will almost just outclass Norwich today. Some of the United attacking players like Rashford, Elanga and LIngaard who have all been in and out of the team, some more than others, Could see this game as a perfect opportunity to score a goal or two and get back some confidence. I see a pretty routine win for United who whilst they still have a lot of problems to fix, should have too much for a Championship bound Norwich side.

Man United to score 4+ goals – 11/4 Skybet (2 points)

Man United to win both halves – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

 

Southampton vs Arsenal

 

Southampton

Scored – 37

Conceded – 52

Both teams scored – 19/31

Home games both teams scored – 9/16

over 2.5 goals – 17/31

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/16

Corners – 6.26

Corners per home game – 6.31

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per home game – 1.75

 

Arsenal

Scored – 45

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 11/30

Away games both teams scored – 4/14

over 2.5 goals – 16/30

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/14

Corners – 5.37

Corners per Away game – 3.93

Yellow cards – 1.67

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.50

Arsenal come here having lost 3 of their last 4 league games, which has seen them drop to 5th place, 3 points behind 4th placed Spurs with a game in hand. This really is a must win game for Arsenal, not only for the points but also because they have a very difficult run in to the season as in their next 5 league games after this they play Man United, Chelsea, West Ham, Leeds and Spurs, before an away trip to Newcastle in their penultimate game which is never an easy place to go, and then they face Everton on the final day of the season who could well be playing for their Premier League lives. Southampton have lost 4 of their last 5 league games, with a draw against Leeds the only point they have taken in their last 5 games. The most worrying thing for Southampton will be that those defeats came against Watford, Newcastle and Aston Villa,which are all games they would be expecting to get points from, but also they were thumped 6-0 by Chelsea in their last game. I can see this being quite a cagey game, Saints are out of form and Arsenal will be desperate to get the win. Arsenal always carry an attacking threat and Saints are dangerous, especially from set pieces with James Ward Prowse possibly the best dead ball specialist in world football right now. It’s a tough game to say their won’t be goals but whatever happens I think this will be tight. Corners look a good angle for bets, but it is worth noting that Arsenal do see quite a big drop off in the number of corners they have in their away games. There was 17 corners when these slides met earlier this season with Arsenal having 9 and Saints 8, which strengthens the corner angle. I feel we could see a couple of cards but it’s not an angle that I am crazy about playing here. I see a tight game where Arsenal just edge it by 1 goal and get their top 4 push back on track.

Arsenal to win by exactly 1 goal – 29/10 Unibet (1 point)

Southampton to take more corners than Arsenal – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

15+ match corners – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Watford vs Brentford

 

Watford

Scored – 29

Conceded – 60

Both teams scored – 14/31

Home games both teams scored – 8/15

over 2.5 goals – 16/31

Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/15

Corners – 4.19

Corners per home game – 4.27

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per home game – 2.07

 

Brentford

Scored – 39

Conceded – 48

Both teams scored – 17/32

Away games both teams scored – 10/16

over 2.5 goals – 17/32

Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/16

Corners – 3.91

Corners per Away game – 3.50

Yellow cards – 1.72

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.88

Watford come here in 19th spot, 6 points from safety, and have played a game more than the two teams directly above them. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games and look to be at the point of no return.I have been surprised by Brentford as I expected them to be dragged into a relegation scrap, but 4 wins in their last 5 league games have seen them move to safety in 13th spot. This is a must win for Watford if they are to have any chance of staying up, but Brentford have scored 12 goals in their last 5 league games, including putting 4 past Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and are ending the season strong. From a betting point of view this is not a game that I am too excited about. It is a difficult game to weigh up as Watford will surely want  to keep it tight, but with their record of conceding early goals there  is a chance they could be chasing this one from an early stage.  Corners and cards are the angles I will focus on as I see this being quite an even game where both sides will get opportunities to attack. Watford definitely have the quality to  cause Brentford problems, and whilst Brentford have been in good form recently  they are not the type of side that I would be backing to control a game and completely  shut down an opponent, so I do think Watford will get chances. The result is very tough to call and that along with goals is not a market that i’m going to get involved in. I don’t see this being a game that will live long in the memory, but if Watford don’t win then I feel this will be the game that ultimately is the straw that broke the camel’s back in their quest to stay in the top flight.

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 10/11 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray