Premier League stats and best bets – Wednesday 23rd February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Burnley vs Spurs

 

Burnley

Scored – 20

Conceded – 29

Both teams scored – 11/22

Home games both teams scored – 5/10

over 2.5 goals – 9/22

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/10

Corners – 4.36

Corners per home game – 5.30

Yellow cards – 2

Yellow cards per home game – 2.10

 

Spurs

Scored – 31

Conceded – 31

Both teams scored – 9/23

Away games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 13/25

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/11

Corners – 5.30

Corners per Away game – 4.55

Yellow cards – 1.91

Yellow cards per Away game –  2.09

Spurs come here on the back of a huge 3-2 win away at Man City, which is just what they needed after they lost 3 league games in a row before that. Burnley sit second from bottom, 5 points adrift of safety but with games in hand on all teams around them, it won’t be full on panic at Burnley yet where every single game is a must win, but we are not far away from that point and Sean Dyche will be desperate to see his side find some consistency. Spurs have won the last 3 head to head meetings between the sides, and in the last 15 head to head meetings, Burnley have won just once, back in February 2019. Spurs will come here full of confidence, but they face a very different test to the one that City posed. Burnley will be physical, compact and difficult to beat. Spurs will not have the space to run into like they did against the reigning champions. Corners and cards both look good potential bets from the stats. Spurs will have more possession, but Burnley are very direct which will often lead to them getting corners and attacking opportunities, sometimes out of nothing. In terms of the result I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burnley hold Spurs to a draw here. Spurs may have a slight hangover from their weekend exploits and Burnley come here fresh off the back of a big 3-0 win against Brighton on the weekend, and they also showed before that when they held Man United to a draw and only lost 1-0 to Liverpool that they will not roll over against the bigger teams. I can see this ending in a 1-1 draw as Burnley frustrate Spurs and leave with a hard earned point.

1-1 draw – 7/1 bet365 (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

Watford vs Crystal Palace

 

Watford

Scored – 24

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 11/24

Home games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 11/24

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 4.54

Corners per home game – 4.50

Yellow cards – 1.92

Yellow cards per home game – 2.17

 

Crystal Palace

Scored – 32

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 13/25

Away games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 14/25

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 4.56

Corners per Away game – 3.92

Yellow cards – 1.80

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.67

18th placed Watford play 13th placed Palace. Watford beat Villa 1-0 in their last league game which serves as a reminder that on their day  they can pick up wins and cause problems for sides ranked higher up the table. The problem they have is consistency, which is a large part of the reason why they are 4 points from safety. Palace lost at home to Chelsea in their last league game as they conceded an 89th minute winner, which now makes it 6 league games without a win for Patrick Viera’s side. Palace will be desperate to get back on track with a win here, and they know they won’t get too many better opportunities. They have got a run of 3 very winnable games coming up as they take on Watford, Burnley and then Wolves, and the results of those 3 games could be crucial in whether or not Palace are dragged into the relegation fight. A Watford win here would move Roy Hodgson’s men to 5 points behind Palace, but with a game in hand. All but two of the teams below Palace in the table have at least 1 game in hand, so they will be keen to end this bad run of form. It’s a longshot to say Palace will be fighting off relegation come the end of the season, but they are closer to the bottom than they would like to be. This should be quite an even game, which will suit bets on corners and cards. I think there is a good chance we see both teams score here, as Watford defensively are still one of the worst sides in the league, but they have also proven they can score goals. I find it tough to pick a winner here and feel we could see an entertaining 2-2 draw played out, where both sides have chances to win the game but can’t find the killer blow.

2-2 correct score – 17/1 Smarkets (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 6/1 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each teams and 10+ booking points each team – 8/11 Skybet (3 points)

 

Liverpool vs Leeds

 

Liverpool

Scored – 64

Conceded – 20

Both teams scored – 11/25

Home games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 18/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/12

Corners – 7.88

Corners per home game – 7.92

Yellow cards – 1.24

Yellow cards per home game – 1.08

 

Leeds

Scored – 29

Conceded – 50

Both teams scored –  16/24

Away games both teams scored – 8/12

over 2.5 goals – 15/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/12

Corners – 4.71

Corners per Away game – 3.75

Yellow cards – 2.79

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.75 

The standout tie of the night see’s Leeds fresh off a 4-2 defeat to Man United, where despite it being a very entertaining game to watch, it is another game that Leeds collected no points from, and that is now 4 league games without a win for Marcelo Bielsa’s side as they sit in 15th place, 5 points above the drop. Liverpool had to come from behind to beat Norwich in their last league game and have the league cup final coming up at the weekend against Chelsea. After Spurs beat Man City I highly doubt Jurgen Klopp will be looking at resting players here as his side can close the gap to league leaders Man City to just 3 points with a win here. Leeds haven’t beaten Liverpool since way back in 2001, with their 3 most recent meetings all since 2020 ending with two wins for Liverpool by 4-3 and 3-0 score lines, and then a 1-1 draw at Elland Road last season. Liverpool will be right up for this, the title race looked almost over a couple of weeks ago but a minor wobble from City has shown everyone that there is life in this season yet. Leeds are always up for every game and this will be no different, and much like the Man United game I expect Leeds to try and make this into a shoot out, but just like Man United I expect them to be outgunned here, and Liverpool will be able to control the game better than Man United could, so I can see them coming out on top. Corners look like a very strong betting angle, in terms  of cards the stats suggest Leeds are the ones to focus on there, but this is sure to be a high intensity game, and the longer Leeds are in the game then the more tense things will become, and should we get to late in the 2nd half with the scores level or just a goal in it, we could see both teams pick up some cards. I see this being a very good game to watch where Liverpool run out 3-1 winners.

3-1 Liverpool correct score – 11/1 Smarkets (1 point)

A goal in each half and 4+ corners each half – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

15+ match corners – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray