Premier League stats and best bets – Wednesday 20th April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Chelsea vs Arsenal

Chelsea

Scored – 64
Conceded – 23
Both teams scored – 14/30
Home games both teams scored -8/14
over 2.5 goals -16/30
Home games over 2.5 goals -7/14
Corners – 6.43
Corners per home game – 7.93
Yellow cards –  1.60
Yellow cards per home game – 1.64

Arsenal 

Scored – 45
Conceded – 37
Both teams scored – 11/31
Away games both teams scored – 4/15
over 2.5 goals – 16/31
Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/15
Corners – 5.45
Corners per Away game – 4.20
Yellow cards – 1.65
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.47

Arsenal come here needing a win to go level on points with Spurs who currently occupy 4th place. Chelsea sit in 3rd spot, and barring any real loss of form from either them or one of the teams above them, which looks highly unlikely, 3rd is where they will finish this season. Chelsea fans do have an FA Cup final to look forward to where they will play Liverpool, after they beat former Arsenal player and now Crystal Palace manager Patrick Viera’s side in the semi final. Arsenal actually did the double over Chelsea in the league last season where they won 1-0 and 3-1, but the meeting earlier this season ended in a 2-0 for Chelsea. Arsenal enter a tough and crucial run of gamesmanship, as after this they play Man United, West Ham, Leeds and Spurs. This should be a good game to watch, Arsenal need a win to go level with Spurs I the race for top 4, but they have also still not shaken off Man United or West Ham behind them, and the thought of ending this season with just Europa Conference League football, or no European football at all would be an absolute nightmare for Mikel Arteta. Chelsea look to be on the road to recovery following a pretty major wobble by their standards, but this game will really test them and see if they are over their poor run of form. The fact Arsenal need a win should make this a very good game to watch. It means Chelsea should have space to attack into rather than trying to break down a a side sitting deep for 90 minutes. I feel there’s a good chance we see both teams score, Arsenal losing 2 of their last 3 three league games will be a blow to their confidences but in terms of making a statement and bouncing back this could be a perfect game to do it. This should be a good game for bets across the board with corners and cards both looking solid. I see Chelses coming out on top and doing their fellow London Rivals Spurs a favour in the process. Whatever the result I do feel this will be a good game for bets and also to watch.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 11/2 Skybet (1 point)

Chelsea to win 3-1 – 16/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 Corners, over 25 match booking points – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

Everton vs Leicester

Everton

Scored – 33
Conceded – 52
Both teams scored – 15/30
Home games both teams scored – 6/15
over 2.5 goals -17/30
Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/15
Corners – 4.23
Corners per home game – 5.07
Yellow cards – 2.17
Yellow cards per home game – 2.33

Leicester

Scored – 46
Conceded – 50
Both teams scored – 20/30
Away games both teams scored – 12/15
over 2.5 goals – 19/30
Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/15
Corners – 4.97
Corners per Away game – 5.47
Yellow cards – 1.40
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.73

Everton come here after a huge 1-0 home win against Man United, and they enter what looks to be a very tough few games for them as after this they play Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester again. They sit 3 points above Burnley who currently occupy the last relegation place, though they do have a game in hand and a win here would really put the pressure on Burnley this late in the season. Frank Lampard will perhaps be happy that his opponents today and in a few weeks have the distraction of a Europa Conference League semi-final on the horizon, and with a top half finish probably the best that Leicester can achieve at this point, he will be hoping they may be playing Leicester at the perfect time. The win against Man United was huge for Everton, despite just how bad Man United were. With the situation they are in and the Merseyside derby at the weekend, a win here for Everton would do wonders for their confidence and also survival chances. I think Everton would take a point, as having the gap between them and Burnley at 4 points would be a huge mental buffer for Everton, but infront of their home fans with the chance to move 6 points above relegation, I do feel it won’t take much for the players to go for the win. From a betting point of view this is not a game that excited me too much. With Everton you never know what to expect, and with Leicester being able to play with freedom but also having no real goal like survival or European football to play for, you don’t really know what to expect from them either. I can see this being quite a slow game and it wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t see many goals. Corners and cards would be the only angles I would back in this, as it should be an even game, as even with home advantage, this Everton side are not good enough to fumigate possession against a side like Leicester. The result and goals look very tough to call, and I feel unless there is an early goal to open the game up, things could get quite cagey.

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 8/11 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace

Newcastle

Scored – 36
Conceded – 55
Both teams scored – 20/32
Home games both teams scored -11/16
over 2.5 goals – 15/32
Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/16
Corners – 4.34
Corners per home game – 3.94
Yellow cards – 2.25
Yellow cards per home game – 2

Crystal Palace

Scored – 43
Conceded – 40
Both teams scored – 16/31
Away games both teams scored – 7/15
over 2.5 goals – 17/31
Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/15
Corners – 4.39
Corners per Away game – 4.13
Yellow cards – 1.71
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.67

Newcastle have now surely done enough to ease the worries of relegation. Following a 2-1 win at home to Leicetser where a 95th Minute goal secured them all 3 points and their second league win in a row following their 1-0 triumph at Wolves. Palace come here after losing their FA Cup semi final at Wembley to Chelsea, and I feel the excursions of that day and a slight hangover from the disappointment could open the door for Newcastle to get their third Premeir League win on the bounce. Historically in recent meetings this has been a very close game, and when they met earlier this season the game ended in a 1-1 draw, I see a similarly close game here but ultimately, and especially late on in the game, I expect Newcastle to be the fresher side and see Lalace off. Corners and cards are not angles I am crazy about getting involved in. Palace could rotate their squad which may mean they need some time to gel on the pitch and find a rhythm, and Newcastle have proven under Eddie Howe that they have no problem with stop and start games where they pick up the pieces. I could be wrong as both sides have been involved in entertaining games this season, but I don’t think this is going to be a game that lives long in the memory for many neutral fans. A win for either side could move them as high as 11th, which for Newcastle would be an achievement given where they were a few months ago, though I know a lot of people question the substance of what they have done given the funds made available in January following the take over, but for Palace they have no real major goals to compete for at this stage of the season and I feel we could see a slight dip in form from them as they close out their season.

Newcastle to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

Newcastle to win both halves – 15/2 Skybet (1 point)

Man City vs Brighton

Man City

Scored – 72
Conceded – 20
Both teams scored –  11/31
Home games both teams scored – 5/15
over 2.5 goals – 16/31
Home games over 2.5 goals -9/15
Corners – 8.39
Corners per home game – 8.73
Yellow cards – 1.16
Yellow cards per home game – 0.93

Brighton

Scored – 29
Conceded – 37
Both teams scored –  15/32
Away games both teams scored – 10/16
over 2.5 goals – 8/32
Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/16
Corners – 5.44
Corners per Away game – 4.63
Yellow cards – 2
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.13

City come here having temporarily lost top spot after Liverpool dismantled Man United last night. They take in a Brighton side who have recovered from a bad run of form and have beaten Arsenal and Spurs in their last two league games, though pulling off a win here would be a new level of form entirely.  City come here after being dumped out of The FA Cup at the semi-final stage, by Liverpool, their title rivals and potential Champions League final rivals should both teams progress from their semi-finals. Any dropped points from City or Liverpool at this stage of the season and its a good chance they prove fatal. In the last 10 head to head meetings between these sides, City have won 9, Scoring 28 goals in those 10 games. Brighton did beat City last season, by a 3-2 scoreline, but it would take a brave man to predict a repeat here. With the greatest if respect to the two clubs, City have a slight drop in class here for their next couple of games as they play Brighton at home today before Championship bound Watford are the visitors at the weekend, City then face Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final. It will be interesting if Pep Guardiola rotates his squad for the games tonight and against Watford. City have a very deep squad so I do expect some changes, but history tells us he isn’t one to be rolling the dice too much in a situation like this. With the title run in and big European games coming up, even if he does rotates his squad, the players coming in will be highly motivated to have an impact. I see a pretty routine win for City here and should they go a couple of goals up I can see them keeping possession and almost toying with Brighton, as they regain top spot. Brighton’s corner average is good but I don’t know how many opportunities they are going to get in this game, and whilst I would usually bank in City to do most the work on their own, I do feel we may see them keep possession today rather than look to run up a cricket score, especially should they go a couple of goals up early and be comfortable. Cards is not an angle I would back as I don’t see this being a tight game and with City having the ball for 70%+ of the game, I question how often Brighton will get close enough to commit fouls.

Man City to win 4-0 – 10/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Man City to score 3+ goals – 1/1 Skybet (2 points)

Man City to win both halves – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray