Premier League stats and best bets – Wednesday 16th March

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Brighton vs Spurs

Brighton

Scored – 26
Conceded – 34
Both teams scored – 14/28
Home games both teams scored – 5/14
over 2.5 goals – 7/28
Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/14
Corners – 5.39
Corners per home game – 5.93
Yellow cards – 1.93
Yellow cards per home game – 1.93

Spurs

Scored – 42
Conceded – 35
Both teams scored – 10/27 
Away games both teams scored – 6/14
over 2.5 goals – 16/27
Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/14
Corners – 5.37
Corners per Away game – 4.86
Yellow cards – 1.81
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.86

Brighton were beaten 2-0 by Liverpool in their last league game, and have now lost their last 5 Premier League games in a row, and have won just 1 of their last 9. They are in 13th spot in the league right now. Spurs were beaten 3-2 by Man United in their last game. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a hat trick in that game as Spurs dropped to 8th in the table, which looks to be a huge blow to their top 4 chances. This is the first meeting between the sides in the league this season with them scheduled to play again in a month’s time. Spurs are getting close to the must win stage now, even though they have games in hand. With the form Arsenal are in and the fact that Man United have match winners like Ronaldo, Antonio Conte’s side really cannot be dropping many more points. They will not get many better chances for three points given the form that Brighton are in right now. I see this being quite an even game, but feel like Spurs have a clear edge in class and recent form, and feel that could be enough to get them over the line here. Corners look a good bet with both sides averaging around the 5 corners a game mark. The stats on bookings are also promising, and whilst this is not a game where I would expect a huge amount of cards, I feel we should see both sides pick up a card or two each. This is a bit of a difficult game to analyze as we have a massively out of form side in Brighton taking on a massively inconsistent side in Spurs. I feel both sides will have their moments but Spurs will just edge out Brighton in a tight, low scoring game.

Spurs to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 9/4 Skybet (2 points)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 1/1 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Arsenal vs Liverpool

Arsenal

Scored – 43
Conceded – 29
Both teams scored – 10/26
Home games both teams scored – 6/14
over 2.5 goals – 14/26
Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/14
Corners – 5.46
Corners per home game – 6.71
Yellow cards – 1.62
Yellow cards per home game – 1.82

Liverpool

Scored – 73
Conceded – 20
Both teams scored –  11/28
Away games both teams scored – 6/14
over 2.5 goals – 19/28
Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/14
Corners – 7.50
Corners per Away game – 7.64
Yellow cards – 1.21
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.36

A big game for both sides here as Liverpool look to keep the pressure on Man City, who at the time of writing are 3 points ahead of Jurgen Klopp’s side in the table, with them playing on Monday night against Crystal Palace where they have the opportunity to stretch their lead back to 6 points. Arsenal have their own fight for top 4 on their hands, and their recent form of 5 league wins on the bounce see’s them in pole position to take 4th spot, and they potentially could put some pressure on Chelsea for third position as they are 8 points behind their London rivals but have two games in hand. Arsenal have only won 1 of the last 18 head to head meetings against Liverpool inside 90 minutes, as they did beat them in The League Cup and Community Shield in 2020, but needed extra time and penalties to do it. Liverpool have won 5 of the last 6 head to head meetings and those 6 games had an aggregate score of 19-5. This is a big test for Arsenal as whilst they have been in good form, they still need to prove they can beat the big teams. The last two league meetings between these sides have ended in a 3-0 and 4-0 win for Liverpool, but I don’t see this game being as one-sided as those were. With Arsenal in form and both teams having something to play for, this game really is set up nicely. I feel there is a good chance that both teams will score. Arsenal are always dangerous on the counter attack with the pace of Saka and threat of players like Lacazette and Smith-Rowe. Liverpool are sure to have periods where they build pressure and keep Arsenal pinned back in their own half, and these periods of play may present Arsenal with their best opportunities. With players like Alexander-Arnold and Robertson joining the attacks, if Arsenal can turn the ball over and break quickly they will be running at center backs and Liverpool’s midfielders like Henderson, Fabinho or Kieta, and as good as those players are they are not keeping up with Arsenal attackers on the counter attacks. For this reason I also feel like we could see a few cards in this game. Both sides will be bang up for it and The Emirates crowd will be in full voice to create a good atmosphere, and with both sides threat on the counter I feel we will see a few cards. Corners look like a very good bet as well, with Liverpool averaging  over 7.5 corners per game away from home and Arsenal averaging over 6.5 corners per home game. This should be a good game to watch and a very good game for bets. In terms of the result I still favor Liverpool to get the job done, though I feel it may not be as comfortable as the scoreline suggests.

Liverpool to win 3-1 – 14/1 William Hill (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

50+ match booking points – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray