Premier League stats and best bets – Tuesday 8th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Newcastle vs Everton

 

Newcastle

Scored – 21

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 14/21

Home games both teams scored – 8/11

over 2.5 goals – 10/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 4.38

Corners per home game – 4.18

Yellow cards – 2.43

Yellow cards per home game – 2.09

 

Everton

Scored – 24

Conceded – 35

Both teams scored –  12/20

Away games both teams scored – 6/10

over 2.5 goals – 12/20

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/10

Corners – 4.30

Corners per Away game – 3.30

Yellow cards – 2.10

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.90

19th Placed Newcastle meet 16th placed Everton, with both sides having made moves in the January transfer window which they hope will move them clear of the bottom of the table. Newcastle won both meetings between these sides last season and a win here would move them to just 1 point behind Everton, though The Toffee’s have a game in hand. This is an interesting game with two sides, with two young English managers who will both be desperate for a result. Lampard knows a win here would be huge for him as the new Everton boss, and Eddie Howe knows that every win is huge for his Newcastle side, who flexed their new financial muscle in the January transfer window, but still have a lot of work to do to stay in the top flight. I see this being a good game to watch, though I imagine it will get quite cagey at times. A lot of Newcastle home games this season have seen both teams score, and there is a decent chance of that streak continuing in this game. The result is tough to call and I feel there is a good chance we could see a score draw in this game. Both sides are pretty consistent with corners and this should be quite an even game so both sides should get opportunities to win corners by getting forward in the wide channels. The stand out bet from the stats is cards, and it is the type of game where you can easily see the referee taking a few names.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 bet365 (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, 3+ corners each team and 30+ match booking points – 5/4 Skybet (2 points)

60+ match booking points – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

 

West Ham vs Watford

 

West Ham

Scored – 41

Conceded – 31

Both teams scored – 14/23

Home games both teams scored – 9/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/11

Corners – 5.70

Corners per home game – 6.09

Yellow cards – 1.30

Yellow cards per home game – 1.27

 

Watford

Scored – 23

Conceded – 40

Both teams scored – 11/21

Away games both teams scored – 5/10

over 2.5 goals – 11/21

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/10

Corners – 4.48

Corners per Away game – 4.40

Yellow cards – 1.95

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.80

West Ham lost their last Premier League game, which was way back in the middle of January when they were beaten 3-2 in front of their home fans by Marcelo Bielsa’s Leed’s side. Watford have had a crucial last 3 games, and in truth will probably be disappointed with how they have gone. A draw to Newcastle was not a terrible result, especially given the way they secured that point with a late equaliser, but a 3-0 home loss to Norwich followed up by another draw this time against Burnley, has new manager Roy Hodgson’s side in the relegation spaces currently. West Ham will be looking to bounce back after the defeat to Leeds and being pushed all the way by Kidderminster in the FA Cup, where they needed an injury time equaliser and extra time, injury time winner to beat the National League North side. West Ham home games have been seeing a lot of goals this season, and I feel there is a good chance we could see that here. Watford are not good enough to defend their way to survival, if they are going to stay up their best chance is scoring goals, something they have proven they can do against the best teams in the league, I feel this could lead to them being involved in some very entertaining games in this back half of the season. I can see Watford scoring, as West Ham have looked far from assured at the back, but I feeWest Ham’s attacking fire power will be too much for Watford to contain. Corners and cards don’t look dreadful bets from the stats, but West Ham are low on the yellow card averages so bookings is not really an angle I would look to take here.

West Ham to win 3-1 – 12/1 bet365 (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

 

Burnley vs Man United

 

Burnley

Scored – 16

Conceded – 27

Both teams scored – 10/19

Home games both teams scored – 4/8

over 2.5 goals – 8/19

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/8

Corners – 4.47

Corners per home game – 5.75

Yellow cards – 2

Yellow cards per home game – 2.38

 

Man United

Scored – 36

Conceded – 30

Both teams scored – 13/22

Away games both teams scored – 8/11

over 2.5 goals – 11/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 5.32

Corners per Away game – 5.27

Yellow cards – 2.09

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.45

Man United have won their last 2 league games against West Ham and Brentford, but they were dumped out of the FA Cup against Championship  side Middlesborough in their last game, so will be looking to bounce back here. Burnley have drawn their last 2 league games 0-0, and sit in 19th spot, though do have games in hand on a lot of teams around them. It seems a long time ago now that Man United came here last season under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and secured a 1-0 win to move to the top of the Premier League table, though a win here today would see them strengthen their position in 4th spot as they look to secure Champions League Football. I think this could be a frustrating game to watch for United fans at times. It is no secret that United have struggled against well drilled and compact sides, and that Ralf Rangnick’s men much prefer  having space to run into and counter attack. So I can see Burnley setting up to frustrate United and almost drag them down to their level and get them involved in the type of game they will love. Burnley know a draw here probably won’t be the worst point they will pick up this season, though In front of their home fans I can see them fancying their chances of claiming a big win here, with United looking very out of sorts for long periods against Boro in The FA Cup. The stats suggest corners and cards are both good bets and whilst they will be the main focus of bets for me here, I still feel we could see a few goals as United have the quality to score from anywhere, but are not a side to rely on to keep a clean sheet.

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 6/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray