Premier League stats and best bets – Thursday 19th May

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Everton vs Crystal Palace

Everton

Scored – 39

Conceded – 59

Both teams scored – 18/36

Home games both teams scored – 8/18

Over 2.5 goals – 19/36

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/18

Corners – 4.31

Corners per home game – 4.94

Yellow cards – 2.17

Yellow cards per home game – 2.28

 

Crystal Palace

Scored – 47

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 18/36

Away games both teams scored – 9/18

Over 2.5 goals – 18/36

Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/18

Corners – 4.64

Corners per Away game – 4.39

Yellow cards – 1.78

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.78

Everton lost their last game at home to Brentford, a win here would secure their Premier League status, but a draw or loss here would mean they go into the final day with the possibility of being relegated, and as they are away to Arsenal on the final day, they definitely won’t want to be in the situation of needing a result on the final day. Palace have had a good season and will feel they have a lot to build on for next season, but ultimately they have nothing major to play for at this point. Everton will want to keep the game tight, with the goal difference that Leeds have being 18 worse than Everton, it surely means that Leeds will have to win on the final day to go above Everton, so even a point here doesn’t make a huge difference for Frank Lampards side, so I can see them going for the win and looking to put the matter to bed here in front of their home fans. It’s tough to know what to expect from Palace, they are unbeaten in their last 4 games with 2 wins and 2 losses, so obviously they haven’t checked out yet. I don’t see many goals here and feel it could be quite a slow game. Its not a game that excites me from a betting point of view, though as I’m finding it hard to split the two sides I do think there is a chance that we see a no or low scoring draw. A draw wouldn’t do Everton much good in terms of shaking off Leeds, as whatever happens Leeds look to need a win in the final day to overtake Everton, though should Everton draw here and draw against Arsenal on the final day, that would leave Leeds needing to improve their goal difference by 18 goals and win on the final day, which is obviously not going to happen. A draw here would move Everton to 3 points clear of Burnley, depending on how Burnley get on in their game tonight against Villa. So I see Everton keeping it tight and trying to pinch a win, but Palace are not an easy team to beat, and I can see it ending in a frustrating draw for Everton as their relegation fight goes into the final day.

1-1 draw – 11/2 bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

 

Aston Villa vs Burnley

Aston Villa

Scored – 49

Conceded – 50

Both teams scored – 18/36

Home games both teams scored – 10/18

Over 2.5 goals – 21/36

Home games over 2.5 goals – 11/18

Corners – 5.06

Corners per home game – 4.28

Yellow cards – 2.17

Yellow cards per home game – 1.78

 

Burnley

Scored – 32

Conceded – 50

Both teams scored – 16/36

Away games both teams scored – 9/18

Over 2.5 goals – 13/36

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/18

Corners – 4.69

Corners per Away game – 4.17

Yellow cards – 1.83

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.83

These sides met just a couple of weeks ago with Villa running out 3-1 winners. 2 goals in the first half an hour for Villa essentially ended that tie in the first half, and I feel Burnley will not make it as easy for Villa here. Burnley currently occupy the last relegation spot, but are only 1 point behind Leeds and have a goal difference that is 20 better than Leeds, so even a draw here would get them out of the relegation zone and take them to the final day in a position of safety. Villa are in 14th, only 10 points ahead of Burnley, which ultimately looks to be a disspaointing finishing position for Villa this season. Steven Gerrards men could still have a big say in what happens at both ends of the table, as they play Burnley here and they play Man City on the final day as well. I see Burnley setting up to be tough to beat,  a point here would be huge for them and they will want to get in the game and not be 2 nil down after 30 minutes like a couple of weeks ago. Leeds have a winnable game in the final day away at Brentford, and Burnley have the tougher final day game at home to Brentford. So getting something here is crucial for Burnley. I can see them getting it, Villa have been inconsistent all season and despite losing 3-1, Burnley showed they can compete with Villa when they played recently. I see the game ending in a score draw where Villa push for a winner but Burnleys defense holds firm.

1-1 correct score – 6/1 bet365 (1 point)

40+ Burnley booking points – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

8+ Aston Villa corners – 2/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Chelsea vs Leicester

Chelsea

Scored – 73

Conceded – 31

Both teams scored – 17/36

Home games both teams scored – 10/17

Over 2.5 goals – 19/36

Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/17

Corners – 6.44

Corners per home game – 7.59

Yellow cards – 1.64

Yellow cards per home game – 1.65

 

Leicester

Scored – 57

Conceded – 57

Both teams scored – 24/36

Away games both teams scored – 15/18

Over 2.5 goals – 23/36

Away games over 2.5 goals – 12/18

Corners – 5.06

Corners per Away game – 5.11

Yellow cards – 1.47

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.72

Chelsea come here on the back of losing the FA Cup final on penalties to Liverpool at the weekend. They have now mathematically secured top 4 but Spurs could technically still pip them for 3rd spot, thought that would likely mean Chelsea would have to lose both their remaining games. Leicester are in 9th right now and the highest they can finish is 8th, so they have nothing major riding on this game. The last 9 head to head matches have seen 3 draws, 3 wins for Chelsea and 3 wins for Leicester, and Leicester have won 2 of the last 4 head to heads,one of which was last years FA Cup final. So this has been a tough fixture for Chelsea in recent years. Its a difficult game to weigh up with Chelsea likely to rotate their squad as they are coming off an FA Cup final that went to penalties, and neither side really has anything that major to play for here. It’s not a game where I would be backing anything at short odds due to the uncertainly around team selections, and just how focused both sides will be. A lot of changes could lead to a disjointed game where the sides need time to gel. Given the recent head to head results I feel that having a small bet on an entertaining draw could be a good idea. Chelsea have obviously struggled against Leicester and a game like this could allow Leicester to play with freedom and let loose, which could cause Chelsea problems. I hope this will be a good game to watch, but I don’t feel its a game to be backing anything at short odds.

2-2 draw – 20/1 Bet365

Author: Eva Gray