Premier League stats and best bets – Thursday 10th March

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Norwich vs Chelsea

 

Norwich

Scored – 16

Conceded – 58

Both teams scored – 10/27

Home games both teams scored – 7/14

over 2.5 goals – 16/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/14

Corners – 4.56

Corners per home game – 5.50

Yellow cards – 1.70

Yellow cards per home game – 1.71

 

Chelsea

Scored – 53

Conceded – 18

Both teams scored – 12/26

Away games both teams scored – 5/14

over 2.5 goals – 13/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/14

Corners – 6.27

Corners per Away game – 5.07

Yellow cards – 1.62

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.64

Norwich were beaten 3-1 at home by Brentford in their last game and have now lost their last 4 league games in a row and sit at the bottom of the Premier League table, 5 points from safety. Chelsea routed Burnley 4-0 in their last game and are on a 3 game winning streak. I see this being one of the simpler games of the evening as I can’t see Norwich causing Chelsea too many problems here. Norwich occasionally have a patch where they play well and you start to think maybe they could get the points they need to stay up, but those patches are far too infrequent and even if Chelsea fail to get out of second or third gear here they should have more than enough to get past Dean Smith’s men. There are two betting angles that I feel could be profitable in this game. Chelsea goals look likely and I would be surprised if they don’t put at least 3 past Norwich. The other angle is corners. You would expect Chelsea to take the most corners, though Norwich have a very good home corner average and actually average more corners at home than Chelsea do away from home, so I feel we could see a high corner count in this game.

Chelsea to score 3+ goals – 11/8 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 9/2 Skybet (1 point)

Norwich to take more corners than Chelsea – 15/2 Skybet (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

 

Southampton vs Newcastle

 

Southampton

Scored – 34

Conceded – 41

Both teams scored – 16/27

Home games both teams scored – 9/14

over 2.5 goals – 14/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/13

Corners – 6

Corners per home game – 5.85

Yellow cards – 1.85

Yellow cards per home game – 1.77

 

Newcastle

Scored – 30

Conceded – 46

Both teams scored – 17/26

Away games both teams scored – 7/12

over 2.5 goals – 12/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/12

Corners – 5.54

Corners per Away game – 4.92

Yellow cards – 2.35

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.67

Southampton were thumped 4-0 by Aston Villa in their last league game to break their 5 game unbeaten run which included 1-1 draws against both Manchester United and City. Newcastle are 8 games unbeaten in the Premier League, winning 5 of their last 6, and this run of form under new boss Eddie Howe has seen them rise to 14th in the table and 7 points above the bottom three. This is a huge game for Newcastle as they could potentially be 10 points above the relegation spaces with a win here, but The Saints will be looking to bounce back from a very poor showing in their last game and recover towards a top half finish. These sides met twice in 2021 and both were entertaining games as the meeting earlier this league season finished 2-2, and the meeting at the back end of last season ended in a 3-2 win for Newcastle. The stats suggest a good chance that both teams will score here and I feel thats a good starting point for most bets. It is tough to split these two sides as Southampton have been the more consistent over the course of the season but Newcastle are in form right now, so I would not be surprised to see this game play out in a similar way to the first meeting they had this season, as it ends in an entertaining 2-2 draw. Corners look a good bet. Saints are usually high up in terms of corners and Newcastle have a respectable average but under Howe they are managing to get on the front foot more often so I would not be surprised to see their corner average rise as the season reaches its climax. Cards are another solid betting angle and with both sides having a high yellow card average, and with both still having something to play for. European football is probably out of reach for Southampton now, but a top half finish would be a very respectable result for them, and give them a good platform to build from into next season. This should be a good game to watch and bet on, as I see it being entertaining and as it’s difficult to split these two sides, I feel a score draw is likely result.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 888Sport (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 11/2 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

Wolves vs Watford

Wolves

Scored – 24

Conceded – 23

Both teams scored – 8/27

Home games both teams scored – 4/13

over 2.5 goals – 7/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 4/13

Corners – 4.56

Corners per home game – 4.54

Yellow cards – 1.67

Yellow cards per home game – 1.69

 

Watford

Scored – 27

Conceded – 50

Both teams scored – 13/27

Away games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals – 13/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/13

Corners – 4.41

Corners per Away game – 4.46

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.54

Wolves have lost their last 3 Premier League games in a row. They sit in 8th spot and still have some faint hopes of maybe getting themselves into the fight for European Football. Watford lost 3-2 to Arsenal in their last game but as they did when they drew 0-0 with Man United in the game before that, they showed that they are not done fighting just yet. Roy Hodgson’s side are in 19th spot at the moment and have a real fight on to avoid a return to The Championship. Wolves games most this season have been pretty close and sometimes cagey affairs, and coming off 3 losses in a row in the league it will be interesting to see if they become even more defensively minded and careful with their play, or if they let loose a little bit and become more attacking. If Wolves play the way they have for much of this season then they will win this game probably 1-0 or 2-0, but Watford have put in some decent performance recently and will fancy their chances of causing a little upset here. I think this could be quite a cagey game at times. Watford have been guilty of conceding early goals, and they will be desperate to avoid doing that here. I don’t expect a lot of goals in this game, and feel the most likely result is a low scoring win for Wolves. Corners should be a good bet as Watford should have times where they can build pressure and get forward, but Wolves are the better footballing side and I would expect them to have more possession. Its likely we see a couple of cards as well, as with the expected close nature of this game I feel it will be very hard fought and even for a long period, but I just expect Wolves to do enough to recover from their recent struggles and get back on track with a win here in front of their home fans.

Wolves to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

3+ corners each team and 10+booking points each team – 1/1 Skybet (3 points)

Leeds vs Aston Villa

 

Leeds

Scored – 29

Conceded – 61

Both teams scored – 16/27

Home games both teams scored – 8/13

over 2.5 goals – 17/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/13

Corners – 4.67

Corners per home game – 5.46

Yellow cards – 2.81

Yellow cards per home game – 2.92 

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 37

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 13/26

Away games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals – 15/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/13

Corners – 5

Corners per Away game – 5.62

Yellow cards – 2.23

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.77

Leeds have lost their last 5 Premier League games, and were beaten 1-0 by Leicester in their last game which was new head coaches Jesse Marsch first game in charge of the club since he took over from Marcelo Bielsa. The last time Leeds did not lose in a Premier League game they played was when they played today’s opponents, Aston Villa and drew 3-3, in a game that had 17 corners.4 yellows and 1 red card. So it’s fair to say this game has a lot to live up to if it is to give us the same excitement as the earlier meetings between this sides this season. Villa have won their last 2 league games, 4-0 against Southampton last time out and 2-0 away at Brighton. On paper the new Leeds boss Jesse Marsch could have a humdinger of a first game at Elland Road, as on paper this game promises to be fascinating. I believe there is a very good chance we see both teams score and a few goals this afternoon, Leeds have conceded 18 goals in their last 5 league games and Villa have scored 6 in their last 2 league games, so on current form you have to expect Villa to find the back of the net at least once. Leeds fearless style of play ended up costing Bielsa his job, but the one thing you will say is that his Leeds sides almost always carried an attacking threat and caused problems for the opposition, and whilst I do not expect Marsch to be that aggressive, he will surely know that parking the pass is not going to endear him to the home supporters, or keep Leeds out of relegation trouble,so I still expect Leeds to cause Villa problems. Corners are another solid angle and we know there is no such thing as a certainty but I would be shocked if we don’t see a few cards in this game. After they played each other just 1 month ago, there is sure to be some needle left from that game, so I expect both sides to be bang up for this. The Villa traveling support are usually vocal and the home crowd at Elland Road are sure to be in full voice for this game given that their side is just 2 points above Burnley who occupy the last relegation space, and have a game in hand. This should be a very entertaining game and I feel we could be in for a repeat of the game just 1 month ago. I don;t expect a 3-3 again, but I feel we could see it end 2-2. If i had to pick a side I would go with Villa, but I just feel home support and a new coach may be enough for Leeds to match Villa and escape with a point.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

2-2 correct score – 12/1 bet365 (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/6 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 9/4 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray