Premier League stats and best bets – Thursday 10th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Liverpool vs Leicester

 

Liverpool

Scored – 58

Conceded – 19

Both teams scored – 10/22

Home games both teams scored – 4/10

over 2.5 goals – 17/22

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/10

Corners – 7.91

Corners per home game – 8

Yellow cards – 1.32

Yellow cards per home game – 1.20

 

Leicester

Scored – 34

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 14/20 

Away games both teams scored – 9/9

over 2.5 goals –  14/20

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/9

Corners – 4.70

Corners per Away game – 4.67

Yellow cards – 1.30

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.56

Liverpool have won their last 2 league games and sit in 2nd spot, knowing that they really cannot afford to drop anymore points if they are to catch runaway leaders Man City. Leicester were actually the last side to beat Liverpool, back on the 28th December they beat Jurgen Klopp’s men 1-0 thanks to a strike from Ademola Lookman. In their 2 Premier League games since then Leicester have drawn with Brighton and lost in incredible style to Spurs where they were 2-1 up with 20 seconds left and somehow managed to lose the game. The Foxes were dealt another blow when the defense of their FA Cup crown fell at an early hurdle with an embarrassing 4-1 defeat away to Nottingham Forest. Leicester will be disappointed to be out of the cup as their league season looks to be not a spectacular one, as they sit in 10th spot clear from the drop but also surely finding European Football out of reach.  That could make Leicester a good team to watch this season though as they can almost play with a nothing to lose attitude. 100% of Leicester away games in the league this season have seen both teams score. The last 18 head to head meetings between these sides all since 2014 have produced 59 goals, with 13 of those games having over 2.5 goals and 12 having both teams score. In the last 10 head to head meetings since 2017, there have been 34 goals, 7 games have had both teams score and 8 have had over 2.5 goals, so historically it is a game that has produced goals. So there looks a good chance both sides could score here and we see over 2.5 goals. Liverpool are always right at the  top of the corner averages and actually had 12 corners when these sides met just a few weeks back. Leicester can throw in the occasional very low corner game, so total match corners is the angle there. Neither side are massively impressive when it comes to cards and there was only 1 booking when the sides last played so it is not a game where I would be too confident backing cards. I see an entertaining game where Liverpool come out on top in a game with plenty of goals and attacking action.

Liverpool to win 4-2 – 33/1 Bet365 (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners each half – 4/6 Skybet (3 points)

 

Wolves vs Arsenal

 

Wolves

Scored – 19

Conceded – 16

Both teams scored – 6/21

Home games both teams scored – 3/10

over 2.5 goals – 5/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/10

Corners – 4.29

Corners per home game – 3.80

Yellow cards – 1.76

Yellow cards per home game – 1.60

 

Arsenal

Scored – 33

Conceded – 25

Both teams scored – 7/21

Away games both teams scored – 3/10

over 2.5 goals –  11/21

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/10

Corners – 5.33

Corners per Away game – 3.90

Yellow cards – 1.57

Yellow cards per Away game – 0.90

Wolves are unbeaten in their last 5 league games, having won 4 of those. At the time of writing they sit in 8th spot, and have seen their success this season built on their defense, which has only conceded 16 goals all season, which is only 2 more than the best defense in the league which belongs to Man City. They have only scored 19 goals though, which is the 3rd lowest in the league, higher than only relegation candidates Norwich and Burnley, so they will be hopeful of scoring more goals in the second half of the season. Arsenal are without a win in their last 2 Premier League games, as they were beaten at home by Man City and then held to a 0-0 draw at the Emirates by Burnley last time out. Arsenal sit in 6th spot at the time of writing with games in hand on all 5 of the teams above them, though in truth Man uNited and West Ham will be their main focus as those sides along with Spurs look set to fight it out for 4th spot. Arsenal have won the last two head to head games both by a 2-1 scoreline, and 5 of the last 6 head to head games have seen both teams score. This is a difficult game to weigh up as Arsenal are coming off a nil nil draw in their last game and Wolves games all season have been very low on goals, I can easily see this ending by a in a low scoring draw, either 0-0 or 1-1, or maybe one side may pinch it 1-0, as whilst anything is possible in football, this is not a game that screams goals. Both slides are pretty consistent with corners, and it should be quite an even game with both sides having opportunities to get forward, so corners looks a good angle. Arsenal have one of the lowest card averages in the league away from home, but Wolves are good at getting their opponents booked so I still feel there is a decent chance we see both teams pick up a card here.

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Draw 1-1 correct score – 6/1 BetVictor (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 10/11 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray