Premier League stats and best bets – Sunday 6th March

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Watford vs Arsenal

 

Watford

Scored – 25

Conceded – 47

Both teams scored – 12/26

Home games both teams scored – 7/13

over 2.5 goals – 12/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/13

Corners – 4.54

Corners per home game – 4.62

Yellow cards – 1.85

Yellow cards per home game –  2.15

 

Arsenal

Scored – 38

Conceded – 27

Both teams scored – 9/24

Away games both teams scored – 3/11

over 2.5 goals – 13/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 5.63

Corners per Away game – 3.91

Yellow cards – 1.67

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.27

Watford held Man United to a 0-0 draw in their last game and at the time of writing before saturday’s games, sit in 19th spot in the league. Arsenal have won their last 3 league games, beating Wolves twice and Brentford, they have games in hand on all teams above them and winning those games in hand would give them a strong grip on 4th spot in the league table. Arsenal have been grinding out results recently, they beat Wolves 1-0 away from home with 10 men, and beat Wolves 2-1 where they scored two late goals to claim victory. Watford have been picking up the odd result here and there but there lack of consistency ultimately looks to be what could see them return to the Championship next season. I expect Arsenal to come out on top here, though I don’t think it will be straight forward. Watford have caused problems for a a lot of teams in the league, but the problem has been that even scoring 1 goal has not been enough to get them results as they have been shipping a lot of goals, the 3rd  most in the league behind only Leeds and Norwich. From a betting point of view this is not a game that I am too keen to get massively involved with. I expect Arsenal to score a couple of goals and that will be enough to get them either a 2-0 or 2-1 victory. In terms of cards and corners it is difficult to weigh up as I feel a lot will depend on how the game goes in the early stages. If Arsenal can score an early goal this will really allow them to settle and control the game, but the longer the game stays at 0-0 or should Watford manage to take the lead, then the crowd will get into it and we could end up with a very entertaining match. Just with how Arsenal have been playing recently, they are showing a new side to their game where they can control a game, be compact and difficult to break down and get through shaky moments, at times when in the past they would have folded. That streak is definitely still in this Arsenal side just I don’t think Watford will be able to cause them enough problems to bring it out. So I expect one of the more straightforward games of the weekend as Arsenal cruise to a pretty comfortable and unspectacular 2-0 win.

Arsenal to win 2-0 – 7/1 Betvictor (1 point)

 

Man City vs Man United

 

City

Scored – 64

Conceded – 17

Both teams scored – 9/27

Home games both teams scored – 3/13

over 2.5 goals – 14/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 8.63

Corners per home game – 9.08

Yellow cards – 1.26

Yellow cards per home game – 1

 

United

Scored – 44

Conceded – 34

Both teams scored –  16/27

Away games both teams scored – 10/13

over 2.5 goals – 12/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 5.37

Corners per Away game – 5.46

Yellow cards – 2.11

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.38

The standout tie from this weekend’s fixtures see’s league leaders Man City host rivals Man United at The Etihad Stadium. This os a fixture that City have not managed to dominate as you would expect in recent years.  The last 7 head to heads have resulted in 3 wins for each team and a draw. United have actually won on their last 3 visits to Man City and they have won 4 of their last 5 visits to The Etihad as well, so Ralf Rangnick’s side will come here with confidence that they can leave with 3 points. City were somewhat fortunate to beat Everton 1-0 in their last league game where they survived what looked to be a very legitimate penalty claim for Frank Lampard’s side, and before that City had lost 3-2 at home to Spurs in what was one of  the games of the season. They did bounce back with a 2-0 win against peterborough in The FA Cup, but given the strength of the team they put out, they may have been surprised and disappointed to only score 2 goals. United come here after an extremely frustrating game saw them held to a 0-0 draw by relegation threatened Watford. United have a huge run of games coming up in their next 5 games, and their results in these could go a long way towards how they look back on their season. Their next 4 games see them play 3 league games, against City, Spurs and Liverpool, with a Champions League last 16 second leg against Atletico Madrid in there as well. The Champions League is United’s last real chance of ending this season on a high, as even should they secure 4th place, everyone involved at United will be disappointed with a trophyless season and finishing 4th being the only highlight. Though finishing 4th will be important for United as players like Ronaldo, Pogba and Fernandes will be wanting to play in The Champions League, and given their obvious plans to start a new rebuild in the summer, Champions League Football will play a big part in attracting talent to Old Trafford this summer. This is an interesting game, as United have done well against City in recent times. City will no doubt control possession, but United can be deadly on the counter and as backwards as it may sound, I feel they may be a better attacking unit against City than the one we saw against Watford. United have struggled against teams who sit deep and get 11 men behind the ball, they are at their best when they have space to run into. Whilst they will not get as many attacking opportunities against City as they did against Watford, I feel the opportunities they do get will be better suited to them. It’s impossible to confidently predict United will keep a clean sheet in this game, so I feel there is a good chance that we see both teams score here. I feel like United’s best chance is to try and make it an end to end shoot out and keep tabs on City, as United’s defense are not well organized enough to sit deep and keep City out for 90 minutes. Corners look a good bet, as City will lead the way in that department but I would expect United to contribute as well as they get forward in the wide channels. These derbies are not what they once were, but we should still see a couple of cards. A couple of weeks ago City could have maybe taken this game a little bit lightly and been happy with a point, but with Liverpool just 6 points behind them with a game in hand, any dropped points here could be crucial, so both teams have it all to play for. I expect an entertaining game and I honestly feel United maybe able to leave with a positive result as the two Manchester clubs play out a 2-2 draw.

2-2 correct score – 20/1 William Hill (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 booking points – 1/1 Skybet (3 points)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 6/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray