Premier League stats and best bets – Sunday 24th April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Brighton vs Southampton

 

Brighton

Scored – 29

Conceded – 40

Both teams scored – 15/33

Home games both teams scored – 5/16

over 2.5 goals – 9/33

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/16

Corners – 5.39

Corners per home game – 6.25

Yellow cards – 2.03

Yellow cards per home game – 1.88

 

Southampton

Scored – 38

Conceded – 54

Both teams scored – 19/33

Away games both teams scored – 10/16

over 2.5 goals – 17/33

Away games over 2.5 goals – 11/16

Corners – 6.36

Corners per Away game – 6.44

Yellow cards – 1.82

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.88

Brighton were beaten 3-0 by Man City in their last league game, but before that they had beaten Arsenal and Spurs both away from home. Southampton lost 2-0 to Burnley in their last league game, but before that they also beat Arsenal, so whilst both sides are coming off losses, they have shown good form recently. There is nothing major riding on this game other than the fact that both sides will be aiming for a top half finish. I feel goals and corners are the angles to focus on in this game. Both sides can play with freedom and both sides have above average corner stats. It’s not a game where I would go crazy about goals, but I can see both sides scoring as they play out a 1-1 draw. This is not a game that will get too much attention this weekend but I feel we could see some winning bets in a game where corners stand out as the best bet.

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 5/4 Skybet (2 points)

1-1 correct score – 6/1 Bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (2 points)

14+ match corners – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Burnley vs Wolves

 

Burnley

Scored – 28

Conceded – 45

Both teams scored – 14/32

Home games both teams scored – 6/16

over 2.5 goals – 11/32

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/16

Corners – 4.81

Corners per home game – 5.44

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per home game – 1.81

 

Wolves

Scored – 33

Conceded – 28

Both teams scored – 10/32

Away games both teams scored – 4/16

over 2.5 goals – 10/32

Away games over 2.5 goals – 3/16

Corners – 4.31

Corners per Away game – 4.25

Yellow cards – 1.75

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.56

Burnley beat Southampton in their last league game, and have now won 2 of their last 4 league games, and they also got a draw away at West Ham in those 4 games as well, so they have shown some form in recent games that gives them hope that they can get the points they need to stay up. They are 1 point behind Everton right now though Frank Lampard’s side do have a game in hand on Burnley. Everton play Liverpool this weekend so Bunrley will know that a win here gives them a very good chance of temporarily moving above Everton to the safety of 17th spot. Wolves have not played a game in 2 weeks so will come here fresh, but that could also make them complacent. They lost 1-0 to Newcastle in their last league game and at the time of writing sit in 8th position. From a betting point of view this game has the benefit of both sides having something to play for, european football is still technically in reach for Wolves though they are going to need teams above them to have a poor end to the season. I don’t see there being many goals in this game. Burnley are unbeaten in their last 6 meetings with Wolves, all of which came in The Premier League, they have won 2 of the last 3 head to head meetings as well. I see the game ending in a low scoring draw. I feel we could see quite a few corners in this game as well. The stats don’t suggest that it is a very good angle, but I can see this becoming quite a direct and almost old fashioned type game at times, with both sides looking to play long balls. I see the game ending in a 1-1 draw, where both sides have chances to win it but both defenses hold firm.

1-1 correct score – 5/1 Bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (2 points)

 

Chelsea vs West Ham

 

Chelsea

Scored – 66

Conceded – 27

Both teams scored – 15/31

Home games both teams scored – 9/15

over 2.5 goals – 17/31

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/15

Corners – 6.42

Corners per home game – 7.80

Yellow cards – 1.65

Yellow cards per home game – 1.73

 

West Ham

Scored – 52

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 21/33

Away games both teams scored – 8/16

over 2.5 goals – 18/33

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/16

Corners – 5.48

Corners per Away game – 5.19

Yellow cards – 1.33

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.31

Chelsea come here having had a real mixed time of things in recent weeks. They were knocked out of The Champions League by Real Madrid, but beat Crystal Palace to progress to The FA-Cup final, but then they were beaten 4-2 at home by Arsenal in their last game. West Ham, like Chelsea have had european football to focus on, however they are still in The Europa League and have the first leg of their Europa League semi-final against Frankfurt on Thursday night. They then play Arsenal next weekend before the 2nd leg against  Frankfurt after that, so West Ham are in a run of 4 games that could define their season. West Ham won 3-2 when the sides met earlier this season, and have actually won 3 of the last 5 head to head meetings with Chelsea. I don’t see them adding to that tally here, as there is no question that Their Europa League semi-final will be on the mind of David Moyes and the players. Following their home defeat to Arsenal Chelsea will be desperate to bounce back here and I see them doing that. Corners looks like another good angle, and usually in a game like this you would consider cards a very good bet, but West ham will want to avoid any injuries and their card average is on the low side anyway. I think there is a good chance that both teams score as Chelsea have not been themselves, especially defensively in recent games, and West Ham do carry an attacking threat. I see Chelsea coming out on top in an entertaining game that should be good to watch.

Chelsea to win 3-1 – 12/1 Bet365 (1 point) 

A goal in each half and 3+corners in each half – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

14+ match corners – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Liverpool vs Everton

 

Liverpool

Scored – 83

Conceded – 22

Both teams scored – 12/32 

Home games both teams scored – 5/16

over 2.5 goals – 21/32

Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/16

Corners – 7.34

Corners per home game – 7.56

Yellow cards – 1.28

Yellow cards per home game – 1.06

 

Everton

Scored – 34

Conceded – 53

Both teams scored –  16/31

Away games both teams scored – 9/15

over 2.5 goals – 17/31

Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/15

Corners – 4.26

Corners per Away game – 3.40

Yellow cards – 2.19

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.87

Merseyside rivals who come here at opposite ends of the table, but both have reasons to need a result here. For Liverpool this is must win, they are 1 point behind Man City, who play Watford on Saturday in a game where they will be expected to take all 3 points. Everton sit in 17th spot at the time of writing, 1 point above Burnley, and could find themselves in the relegation spaces at the end of this game. Everton have beaten Liverpool just once since 2010, with Liverpool winning 12 of the last 25 head to head games, 12 ending in a draw, and Everton having 1 win. Liverpool have been in fine form recently, beating Man City 3-2 in the FA-Cup final, then beating Man United 4-0 in their last game. They have the first leg of their Champions League semi-final against Villarreal on Wednesday, but will not become complacent here. I see this being a tough afternoon for Everton, these type of games can sometimes throw up shock results, and Everton have managed to hold Liverpool to a draw in a surprising amount of their recent fixtures, but I really struggle to see anything other than a routine LIverpool win here. If Liverpool can get an early goal I feel Everton could be in for a long afternoon and would not be surprised to see Liverpool score 3 or 4 goals as they brush their local rivals to the side quite easily. It’s not a game where I am crazy about playing corners or cards. That may come as a surprise but should Liverpool have the game in safe keeping, then I would not be surprised to see Jurgen Klopp make some changes early and protect some of his more crucial players before they set their sites on a potential quadruple which is still on the cards for Klopp’s men. This could be a good game to watch, and part of me hopes Everton will be competitive as it could make for a very entertaining second half if Everton are still level or can manage to take the lead, but the form Liverpool are in I just don’t see it happening.

Liverpool to score 3+ goals – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

Liverpool to win 4-0 – 10/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Liverpool to win both halves – 5/4 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray