Premier League stats and best bets – Sunday 20th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Leeds vs Man United

 

Leeds

Scored – 27

Conceded – 46

Both teams scored – 15/23

Home games both teams scored – 7/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 4.78

Corners per home game – 5.91

Yellow cards – 2.65

Yellow cards per home game – 2.55

 

Man United

Scored – 40

Conceded – 32

Both teams scored – 15/25

Away games both teams scored – 9/12

over 2.5 goals – 11/25

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 5.52

Corners per Away game – 5.67

Yellow cards – 2.16

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.33

After beating West Ham Leeds have gone winless in their next 3 league games, with losses against Newcastle and Everton, either side of a 3-3 draw with Aston Villa. Man United beat Brighton in their last league game after back to back 1-1 draws with Southampton and Burnley. On paper this is one of the standout ties of the weekend and is one that both sets of fans will be very much looking forward to. This fixture ended 0-0 last season, but this season Man United won  5-1, and the other meeting last season ended 6-2 to Man United, so these two sides are used to playing out very entertaining games in recent times. At the time of writing before Saturday’s games, United sit in 4th spot with Leeds down in 15th. Leeds have been very unlucky with injuries this season but the mai aim now will be to stay up and then look to build and move forward next season. There were many people, myself included who thought that Marcelo Bielsa’s liking for keeping a very small squad could come back to bite him at some point in The Premier League, and I would imagine that having a bit more depth may be number 1 on Leeds priority list after this season. United will be frustrated that a season with so much promise has turned into them scrapping for top 4, and after their embarrassing FA Cup exit to Middlesbrough, their only chance of Silverware this season looks to be The champions League, which would be an almighty shock. It is an obvious statement but I see this being a very entertaining and feisty game, with both sides desperate for the result. I feel we will see both teams score and it will be a very end to end game with both teams having a lot of chances. I feel like a shootout will favor United more and can see them outscoring Leeds, who no doubt will be able to cause this United defense problems. Corners and cards both look good potential betting angles in what I think will be the best game of the Weekend, where Man United run out 4-2 winners.

4-2 Man United – 50/1 Novibet (1/2 point)

Over 1.5 goals, 3+ corners each team and 30+ match booking points – 10/11 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 1/1 Skybet (3 points)

 

Wolves vs Leicester

 

Wolves

Scored – 21

Conceded – 17

Both teams scored – 6/23

Home games both teams scored – 3/11

over 2.5 goals – 5/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/11

Corners – 4.35

Corners per home game – 4.58

Yellow cards – 1.74

Yellow cards per home game – 1.64

 

Leicester

Scored – 36

Conceded – 41

Both teams scored – 15/22

Away games both teams scored – 9/10

over 2.5 goals – 15/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/10

Corners – 4.77

Corners per Away game – 4.80

Yellow cards – 1.23

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.40

Leicester play Wolves in a fixture where The Foxes are unbeaten in their last 5 head to head meetings, winning 2 and drawing 3. None of the last 5 head to head meetings have had more than 1 goal, with 3 games ending goalless and then Leicester securing two 1-0 wins. So on paper this is not a game to be getting too excited about goals. Wolves beat Spurs 2-0 away from home in their last game to get back on track after they lost at home to Arsenal before that. Leicester drew 2-2 with West Ham in their last league game where they conceded an injury time equalizer. Conceding late goals is costing Leicester points in recent games, as they conceded in the 82nd minute against Brighton, the 91st against West Ham and spectacularly they conceded 2 goals in the last 20 seconds to lose to Spurs as well. Including their loss to Liverpool, they have now conceded in the 82nd minute or after in their last 4 league games, which is something Brenden Rodgers will be desperate to fix. First of all this is not a game where I would go anywhere near backing goals. Wolves games have been low all season but their recent head to head form is also extremely low on goals. As boring as it sounds I can easily see this game ending in a 0-0 draw. I think it will be a close game, with the midfield battle particularly feisty, and corners and cards are the best angles to focus on for bets here. Both sides are pretty similar in terms of corners, and it’s the type  of game where they will both get opportunities to get forward. From the stats cards do not look like a banker, but I feel there is a decent chance that we see both teams have at least 1 player’s name taken. So I feel this may be a low key end to the weekend of Premier League action, as I expect the game to be a low scoring draw, either 1-1 or more likely, 0-0.

0-0 correct score – 42/5 Smarkets (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

Author: Eva Gray