Premier League stats and best bets – Sunday 1st May

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Everton vs Chelsea

Everton

Scored – 34
Conceded – 55
Both teams scored – 16/32 
Home games both teams scored – 7/16
Over 2.5 goals – 17/32
Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/16
Corners – 4.16
Corners per home game – 5.06
Yellow cards – 2.28
Yellow cards per home game – 2.38

Chelsea

Scored – 68
Conceded – 28
Both teams scored – 16/33
Away games both teams scored – 7/17
Over 2.5 goals – 17/33
Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/17
Corners – 6.39
Corners per Away game – 5.35
Yellow cards – 1.61
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.53

Everton could come here 5 points from safety depending on how Burnley get on against Watford on Saturday. For Everton boss Frank Lampard one of the last teams he would want to see coming to play them today is his former club. Chelsea sit in 3rd spot but have been in a bit of mixed form lately as they lost to Arsensl, before beating West Ham thanks to a 90th minute winner, and they drew with Man United in their last game. Everton have actually had the better of it in recent years between these sides, as in the last 6 head to head meetings, all in the Premier League, Everton have won 3, with 2 Chelsea wins and 1 draw.  I feel this could turn into a really cagey game, as for Everton every point is crucial so they won’t want to give up an early lead, and Chelsea have not been themselves in recent weeks, so an atmosphere like this against a team fighting to stay in the division will be a test for them. I don’t see this being a game this is full of goals, and feel the most likely result is we see Chelsea come out on top in a tight game where 1 or 2 key moments prove to be the difference. Corners could be a bit of a risky angle, as I expect the game to be very cagey I feel both sides will look to keep the ball and have possession, which could make the game quite slow and methodical at times. Cards is a more appealing angle as despite Frank Lampards history with Chelsea I don’t see his side showing them too much respect today, and both sides have players who are prone to a rash challenge or getting involved in a bit of needle. Whilst maybe not the most entertaining game of this weekend I think this could be a compelling watch, as Chelsea just edge out Everton and push their former player and managers side closer to relegation.

Chelsea to win and under 3.5 match goals – 5/4 Skybet (2 points)

50+ match booking points – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

 

Spurs vs Leicester

Spurs

Scored – 56
Conceded – 38
Both teams scored – 12/33
Home games both teams scored – 6/16
Over 2.5 goals – 19/33
Home games over 2.5 goals – 11/16
Corners – 5.15
Corners per home game – 5.50
Yellow cards – 1.82
Yellow cards per home game – 1.75

Leicester

Scored – 47
Conceded – 51
Both teams scored – 21/32
Away games both teams scored – 13/16
Over 2.5 goals – 19/32
Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/16
Corners – 5
Corners per Away game – 5.38
Yellow cards – 1.44
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.69

Spurs come here 2 points off Arsenal in 4th spot, which will be very frustrating as they have dropped points carelessly in their last couple of league games. Firstly they lost 1-0 at home to Brighton, where they conceded a 90th minute goal, and this was a game where they never got going, as they failed to register a single shot on target compared compared to Brighton who had 5. Then spurs drew 0-0 with Brentford in their last game where they yet again failed to have a shot on target. Leciester drew 1-1 with Roma on Thursday night in the first leg of their Europa Conference League semi final, that is their clear focus for the remainder of this season as whatever happens in their last few games, they will consider their league campaign a disappointing one this season. This is not a game that excited me too much from a betting perspective, mainly due to the circumstances both teams find themselves in. Leicester are focused on their European journey and Spurs are horribly out of form, failing to hit the target at all in their last 180 minutes of league football, and it wasn’t like they played City and Liveprool, with the greatest of respect to Brighton and Brentford. If I had to I would edge towards Spurs, for the simply fact that they have more to play for here than Leicester, but it’s not a game where I would be looking to get involved with any bets at short odds.

Spurs to win 2-1 – 17/2 Bet365 (1 point)

 

West Ham vs Arsenal

West Ham

Scored – 52
Conceded – 44
Both teams scored – 21/34
Home games both teams scored – 13/17
Over 2.5 goals – 18/34
Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/17
Corners – 1.29
Corners per home game – 1.35
Yellow cards – 
Yellow cards per home game – 

Arsenal

Scored – 52
Conceded – 40
Both teams scored – 13/33
Away games both teams scored – 5/16
Over 2.5 goals – 18/33
Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/16
Corners – 5.18
Corners per Away game – 4
Yellow cards – 1.67
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.44

West Ham lost 2-1 to Frankfurt in mid-week in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final, which whilst it is a disappointing loss will mean they have everything still to play for when they head to Germany for the return leg. Arsenal have followed surprise back to back defeats against Brighton and Southampton, with huge back to back wins against Chelsea and Man United. They are in the driving seat for 4th spot right now, but Spurs are just 2 points behind them so they really can’t afford any dropped points here. There is no doubt  that West Ham will be prioritising the 2nd leg with Frankfurt, and any players carrying a knock or fatigue issues will not be risked today, which gives Arsenal a huge advantage. The Gunners have dominated the recent head to head matches winning 22 of the last 29 head to head games in all competitions, whilst West Ham have just 2 wins in that time which stretches all the way back to 2007. The more recent head to head form doesn’t offer West Ham too much hope either with Arsenal winning 7 of the last 9. I see Arsenal adding to their good head to head record here ad they will be high in confidence taking on a team who had a huge game on Thursday night and have another big Thursday coming up, so this game is coming at exactly the right time for Arsenal. Corners and cards are both angles I would be careful of here. A game like this could easily produce cards but neither side has been putting up massive numbers in terms of booking points this season. I feel like West Ham will be happy for this game to be played at a slow pace, and Arsenal will look to control possession, so the game could be quite slow with a lot of back and forth action in the Arsenal defence and midfield, which will not favor corners. I see Arsenal winning and continuing their good run of form as West Ham look to Thursday night and the opportunity ti reach a European Final.

Arsenal to win and over 2.5 match goals – 13/8 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray