Premier League stats and best bets – Sunday 15th May

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Spurs vs Burnley

Spurs

Scored – 63
Conceded – 40
Both teams scored – 14/36
Home games both teams scored – 7/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/36
Home games over 2.5 goals – 13/18
Corners – 5.08
Corners per home game – 5.33
Yellow cards – 1.81
Yellow cards per home game – 1.72

Burnley

Scored – 32
Conceded – 49
Both teams scored – 16/35
Away games both teams scored – 9/17
Over 2.5 goals – 13/35
Away games over 2.5 goals –  7/17
Corners – 4.77
Corners per Away game – 4.29
Yellow cards – 1.83
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.82

Spurs are coming off a memorable 3-0 home win against rivals Arsenal. They now sit 1 point behind the Gunners and definitely have an easier run in as they face Burnley here and then already relegated Norwich on the final day. Arsenal have a trip to St James Park and then face Everton on the final day who could easily still need a result in that game to avoid an unthinkable relegation. Burnley are also firmly in the mix to be the third team relegated this season, with them Leeds and Everton in a 3 way face off to avoid joining Norwich and Watford in the second tier next season. Burnley lost to Villa in their last league game but before that had won 3 in a row, so they have been in form and will be fighting for everything here today. Burnley actually won 1-0 when the sides met earlier this season and 3 of the last 4 head to head meetings in all competitions have been decided by exactly 1 goal, so it’s been a tight fixture in recent years. It would be typical Spurs to beat Arsenal so convincingly and then drop points here, and I feel there is a chance it could happen. Burnley have found form and even a point here would be huge for them as they are level on points with Leeds but do have a game in hand on them.  I can see Burbley frustrating Spurs here and earning a point. I see Burnley setting up to be difficult to beat and keeping things especially tight early. They will look to take advantage of set pieces and any opportunities to get the ball into the Spurs box. I could easily be wrong as Spurs are clearly the better side, but I cam see Burnley frustrating them and leaving with a hard earned but crucial point.

The match to be a draw – 17/4 Skybet (1 point)

50+ match booking points – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

8+ Spurs corners-  11/8 Skybet (2 points)

 

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

Aston Villa

Scored – 48
Conceded – 49
Both teams scored – 17/35
Home games both teams scored – 9/17
Over 2.5 goals – 21/35
Home games over 2.5 goals – 11/17
Corners – 5.17
Corners per home game – 4.47
Yellow cards – 2.20
Yellow cards per home game – 1.82

Crystal Palace

Scored – 46
Conceded – 42
Both teams scored – 17/35
Away games both teams scored – 8/17
Over 2.5 goals – 18/35
Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/17
Corners – 4.63
Corners per Away game – 4.35
Yellow cards – 1.74
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.71

Whilst I feel this could be a good entertaining and attacking game to watch. It’s not a game where I’m getting involved with any real bets. Both sides are likely going to finish mid table, but winning all their games left may allow one of them to break into the top 10. This is not a huge goal and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the managers try something different, protect their best players if they are carrying knocks or fatigue so we could easily see some rotation with players here which may take time to gel and won’t help the game much. If both sides are in form then we should see an open and attacking game, so I will have a little stab at an entertaining 2-2 draw, but it’s not a game where I would be backing anything at short odds.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

 

Leeds vs Brighton

Leeds

Scored – 39
Conceded – 77
Both teams scored – 20/36
Home games both teams scored – 10/18
Over 2.5 goals – 24/36
Home games over 2.5 goals – 12/18
Corners – 4.44
Corners per home game – 4.89
Yellow cards – 2.67
Yellow cards per home game – 2.72

Brighton

Scored – 38
Conceded – 42
Both teams scored – 16/36
Away games both teams scored – 10/18
Over 2.5 goals – 12/36
Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/18
Corners – 5.39
Corners per Away game – 4.50
Yellow cards – 1.92
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.11

It always looked like Leeds could be dragged back in to serious relegation trouble, as their last 3 games have seen them play Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea, and as many would have expected they lost all 3 of those and now sit level on points with Burnley and 2 points behind Everton, though both those sides have a game in hand on Leeds. Brighton could finish as high as 8th, but will be happy with their season and watching their games and how they have played this year, they probably deserve a top half finish. Graham Potters side are coming off a memorable 4-0 home win against Man United, and beat Wolves 3-0 before that, so they really ending the season strong. Leeds are in big trouble, Brighton are in form right now and Leeds really need to get something from this game. There best chance may be to go for the win and attack, as its extremely difficult to see a Leeds defence that has Conceded 77 goals this season (just 1 less than already relegated Norwich and 7 more than already relegated Watford), managing to keep a clean sheet. Keeping 10 men on the pitch will be a start fir Leeds as in their last 2 league games they have had a Man sent off. Dan James after 24 minutes against Chelsea and Luke Ayling after 27 minutes against Arsenal. I feel this could be a good game to watch. Brighton will be full of confidence and will go for the win as they really have nothing to lose.  This is Leeds last home game of the season and a win here would really put them in a good position to potentially stay up, and would put even more pressure on Burnley and Everton. I can see Leeds getting a result here. Elland Road will surely be at capacity and I feel we could be in for quite a game and atmosphere. I see both teams scoring and whilst a draw would not surprise me, I just have a feeling that we could see Leeds pull something out the bag here to really set the relegation battle up for a grand stand finish.

Leeds to win 2-1 – 9/1 William Hill (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Watford vs Leicester

Watford

Scored – 32
Conceded – 70
Both teams scored – 17/36
Home games both teams scored – 10/18
Over 2.5 goals – 19/36
Home games over 2.5 goals – 12/18
Corners – 4.19
Corners per home game – 4.22
Yellow cards – 1.75
Yellow cards per home game – 1.94

Leicester

Scored – 52
Conceded – 56
Both teams scored – 23/35
Away games both teams scored – 14/17
Over 2.5 goals – 22/35
Away games over 2.5 goals – 11/17
Corners – 5.11
Corners per Away game – 5.24
Yellow cards – 1.49
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.76

Another game with nothing really riding on it as Watford are already relegated, and will be looking to protect their assets as there will surely be some players leaving in the summer, and they won’t want injuries or poor performances to hurt their transfer value. Leicester are just running out the clock on this season, as they had all their focus on their Europa Conference League campaign but they came up short and were eliminated by Roma in the semi-final. Leicester are the better team and I will have a small bet on them to win an open game where both teams go for it, but in terms of corners, cards and any bets at short odds, I feel it’s better to look at other games this weekend.

Leicetser to win 3-1 – 16/1 Bet365 (1 point)

 

West Ham vs Man City

West Ham

Scored – 57
Conceded – 46
Both teams scored – 22/26
Home games both teams scored – 14/18
Over 2.5 goals – 20/36
Home games over 2.5 goals – 11/18
Corners – 5.28
Corners per home game – 5.61
Yellow cards – 1.31
Yellow cards per home game – 1.39

Man City

Scored – 94
Conceded – 22
Both teams scored – 13/36
Away games both teams scored – 7/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/36
Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/18
Corners – 8.17
Corners per Away game – 7.61
Yellow cards – 1.14
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.39

With City 3 points ahead of Liverpool and a goal difference 7 better than Jurgen Klopps side, a win here would surely seal another League Title for Pep Guardiola’s side. West Ham could go level on points with Man United in 6th if they can win, but they look set for a Europa Conference League spot, barring any big shake up in the last couple of games. These sides have met 15 times since 2016, with City winning 12 of those games, 2 ending in draws, then there was technically a game that West Ham won, but that originally ended in a draw and they won on penalties, so The Hammers have not beaten City in the league since 2015. West Ham have had a long season with a lot of games, as they made the semi finals of The Europa League and the quarter final of the league Cup as well. I see Coty taking advantage of a tires West Ham squad that will still have  aslight disappointment hangover from going out of the Europa League.  This will be Mark Noble’s last game in front of the West Ham homes fans, and it would be a memorable one if they could beat Man City, but I don’t see a fairytale ending happening today. I would not be surprised to see West Ham score, but with just the league to focus on now, City have looked good in recent games as they put 5 past Newcastle and then 5 past Wolves, so I expect them to win relatively comfortably. Corners look a good bet, cards is not an angle that I am desperate to get involved in, a few bookings wouldn’t be a surprise, but West Ham have already suffered by getting men sent of this season so will be wary of going down to 10 men here, and City will control the ball for long periods, and it’s not a game that I see being played in bad blood. I see an entertaining game, where City essentially clinch another League Title.

City to win 3-1 – 11/1 Bet365 (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 10/11 Skybet (3 points)

14+ match corners – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

 

Wolves vs Norwich

Wolves

Scored – 36
Conceded – 39
Both teams scored – 12/36
Home games both teams scored – 7/18
Over 2.5 goals – 13/36
Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/18
Corners – 4.44
Corners per home game – 4.61
Yellow cards – 1.72
Yellow cards per home game – 1.83

Norwich

Scored – 22
Conceded – 78
Both teams scored – 13/36
Away games both teams scored – 5/18
Over 2.5 goals – 22/36
Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/18
Corners – 4.42
Corners per Away game – 3.44
Yellow cards – 1.42
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.39

Wolves need to win both their remaining games and hope that West Ham lose both of theirs if Wolves are to grab a spot in The Europa Conference League next season. Its not the most unlikely outcome as West Ham play City and then are away at Brighton, but Wolves go away to Liverpool on the final day and it’s tough to see them going there and winning with the form Liverpool are in. In terms of corners and cards it’s not a very appealing game, the only confident selection in this game is that I feel confident Wolves will win and win comfortably. In their final home league game they face an already relegated Norwich who have been poor all season. I see Wolves co trolling the game and putting 3 or 4 past Norwich. Wolves season has largely been built on their defensive effort, but I can see them wanting to flex some attacking muscle here and put on a show for their home fans.

Wolves to score 3+ goals – 15/8 Skybet (3 points)

Wolves to win both halves – 11/4 Skybet (2 points)

 

Everton vs Brentford

Everton

Scored – 37
Conceded – 56
Both teams scored – 17/35
Home games both teams scored – 7/17
Over 2.5 goals – 18/35
Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/17
Corners – 4.29
Corners per home game – 4.94
Yellow cards – 2.23
Yellow cards per home game – 2.41

Brentford

Scored – 44
Conceded – 52
Both teams scored – 18/36
Away games both teams scored – 11/18
Over 2.5 goals – 20/36
Away games over 2.5 goals – 12/18
Corners – 4.28
Corners per Away game – 3.83
Yellow cards – 1.61
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.72

Everton come here in a 3 way fight with Burnley and Leeds to avoid joining Norwich and Watford in The Championship next season. Everton look in the best position of the 3 clubs, as they are 2 points ahead of Burnley and Leeds, and in their 3 games remaining, they have back to back home games against Brentford and Palace, before a trip away to Arsenal, so there next 2 games especially look very winnable, and they have home advantage. Brentford sit in 13th at the time of writing, and if they win both their remaining games they could climb to 10th or even 9th if other results went their way, but ultimately they have survived their first season so will be happy wherever they end up. Brentford won 1-0 when the sides met earlier this season, thanks to a penalty from Ivan Toney, in what was a fiesta game with 7 Yellow cards. I see this to being quite a hot blooded affair and feel we could see a few cards. A win would be huge for Everton and would leave them 5 points clear of Leeds with both sides having just 2 games left to play, and this looks like Evertons most winnable game in paper, so I expect them to go for the 3 points. Brentford technically have nothing to play for, but I feel they are the type of side who will rise to the atmosphere at Goodison Park and will be desperate to spoil the party. Their players can play with freedom and I feel they will have some players, especially the likes of Pontus Jansson and Ivan Toney who will love the atmosphere and playing in games that really matter, if they can be the ones to help send Everton down I feel they would love to do it,and both these sides have players who hold a grudge, so the meeting from earlier in the season should have an impact as well. I see this being a very tight game, and either side pinching it by an odd goal wouldn’t be a surprise. I feel cards is the real angle to focus on here thought as whatever the result, we are guaranteed a hostile atmosphere and 2 sides who if their first meeting this season is anything to go on, do not like each other.

1-1 draw – 6/1 Bet365 (1 point)

40+ match booking points – 5/6 Skybet (3 points)

60+ match booking points – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

80+ booking points – 11/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray