Premier League stats and best bets – Sunday 13th March

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Chelsea vs Newcastle

 

Chelsea

Scored – 53

Conceded – 18

Both teams scored – 12/26

Home games both teams scored – 7/12

over 2.5 goals – 13/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 6.27

Corners per home game – 7.67

Yellow cards – 1.62

Yellow cards per home game – 1.58

 

Newcastle

Scored – 30

Conceded – 46

Both teams scored – 17/26

Away games both teams scored – 7/12

over 2.5 goals – 12/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/12

Corners – 4.54

Corners per Away game – 4.92

Yellow cards – 2.35

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.67

Chelsea have won their last 4 Premier League games, though their issues off the field are what has seen their name in the papers in recent times, and a Newcastle side in good form coming to Stamford Bridge is a potential banana skin for Tuchel’s side. Eddie Howe has seen his Newcastle side go on a 9 game unbeaten run in the league, winning 6 of those games. They have won their last 3 games in a row, though it is fair to say that they take a step up in class in terms of their recent opponents here. Newcastle are in 14th spot at the time of writing, just 4 points off the top half of the table. More importantly they have moved 10 points above the relegation spaces and whilst bigger surprised have happened, on their current form they look to be safe from relegation. Chelsea are in a  difficult spot in the league, as the title is surely out of reach now, but Arsenal are 8 points behind Chelsea in the league with 2 games in hand, so  they are being kept up to their work to make sure they hang on to 3rd spot. Newcastle come here in fine form, but I feel this could be a step too far and their unbeaten run may come to an end here. Newcastle have scored 6 goals in their last 3 league games, so I feel there is a good chance they may find the back of the net at some stage in this game, but I still expect Chelsea to have too much firepower for the Newcastle defense. Corners and cards both look like potential betting angles, with the stats suggesting Chelsea will lead the way in corners and Newcastle in cards. I think this will be a good game to watch, as Chelsea win 3-1.

Chelsea to win 3-1 – 12/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Chelsea to score 2+ goals, 5+ Chelsea corners and 20+ Newcastle booking points – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 booking points – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

 

Everton vs Wolves

 

Everton

Scored – 28

Conceded – 46

Both teams scored – 13/25

Home games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 15/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 4.08

Corners per home game – 5.08

Yellow cards – 2.04

Yellow cards per home game – 2.25

 

Wolves

Scored – 24

Conceded – 23

Both teams scored – 8/27

Away games both teams scored – 4/14

over 2.5 goals – 7/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 3/14

Corners – 4.56

Corners per Away game – 4.57

Yellow cards – 1.67

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.64

Everton were thumped 5-0 by Spurs in their last game and have now lost their last 3 league games. Wolves beat Watford 4-0 in their last league game to snap a run of three defeats in a row in the league. Wolves won 2-1 when these sides met earlier in the season. In recent times this has been quite an entertaining game, 5 of the last 7 head to head meetings all since 2018 have seen both teams score, and those 7 games have seen 23 goals. It does complicate matters somewhat as Wolves games have been pretty low on goals all season and Everton have failed to score in their last 3 Premier League games. There is already talk that Frank Lampard may be in trouble of losing his job at Everton, and whilst I feel that is premature, he will be desperate to start climbing some places and get away from the relegation places. They have games in hand on all other teams around them at the bottom, but those games in hand are pointless if they don’t find a way to start scoring goals and getting results. I feel there is a good chance this game could end in a draw. Everton need something to stop the bleeding, and even if that is just 1 point it would be a start. Wolves would be the favorites but they have been out of form themselves  in some of their games lately, and they are not the type  of side I would want to be backing to go to Goodison Park and get a win. I feel there is a good chance that this game ends in a low scoring draw. The even nature of this game should make corners and cards a good bet. Both sides are pretty consistent with corners and I feel this is the type of game where they could both better their corner averages. The stats suggest cards is a good bet without being a banker, but with these two sides it would not surprise me to see a few bookings, especially given the situation that Everton are in.

1-1 draw correct score – 11/2 Bet365 (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team –  10/11 Skybet (3 points)

50+  match booking points – 7/4 Skybet (2 points)

 

Leeds vs Norwich

 

Leeds

Scored – 29

Conceded – 61

Both teams scored – 16/27

Home games both teams scored – 8/13

over 2.5 goals – 17/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/13

Corners – 4.67

Corners per home game – 5.46

Yellow cards – 2.81

Yellow cards per home game – 2.92

 

Norwich

Scored – 16

Conceded – 58

Both teams scored –  10/27

Away games both teams scored – 3/13

over 2.5 goals – 16/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 4.56

Corners per Away game – 3.54

Yellow cards – 1.70

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.69

This could be an absolutely crucial game in the relegation fight. Norwich are on the bottom of the table with just 17 points. Leeds are in 16th with 23 points. If Norwich can close that gap to 3 points that would be huge, but should Leeds move 9 points above Norwich that could almost be the end of Norwich survival hopes, even with 9 games to play. Leeds won 2-1 away at Norwich when the sides met earlier this season. Leeds have lost their last 6 league games in a row and are without a win since they beat West Ham in January. Norwich have lost their last 5 league games. Though they have played Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool in those 3 games. Norwich play Leeds today and Burnley in a couple of games time, two games which could be crucial in determining if they can keep this fight for survival going. I feel this could be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend. Norwich have lost 3 of their last 4 league games by a 3-1 scoreline, and I feel this is another game that could produce goals. Both sides, but especially Leeds will know that they are highly unlikely to defend their way to wins, they have to go out and score goals, and I expect them to have that kind of mindset in today’s game. I feel there is a very good chance that both teams score in this game. I feel it could become a bit of a shoot out, and with home advantage I feel Leeds may just come out on top. As well as being a good game to watch I feel this could be a good game to bet on. Whilst neither side is breaking any records with their corner average, this could turn into a real end to end game and both sides will get shots at goal and balls into the box which lead to corners. In a game like this with the Elland Road crowd at full voice, it’s almost a given to expect a few cards. I feel both sides could approach this with a real kind of do or die attitude and it may feel like a play-off type game at times. I feel Leeds may just do enough to come out on top in the shoot out and give their survival hopes a boost.

Leeds to win 3-2 – 25/1 Bet365 (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/6 Skybet (3 points)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Southampton vs Watford

 

Southampton

Scored – 34

Conceded – 41

Both teams scored –  16/27

Home games both teams scored – 7/13

over 2.5 goals – 14/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/13

Corners – 6

Corners per home game – 5.85

Yellow cards – 1.85

Yellow cards per home game – 1.79

 

Watford

Scored – 27

Conceded – 50

Both teams scored – 13/27

Away games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals – 13/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/13

Corners – 4.41

Corners per Away game – 4.46

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.54

Southampton have lost their last two league games to Villa and Newcastle and sit in 10th spot at the time of writing. Watford are in 19th and have also lost their last two league games, to Arsenal and Wolves. This could be a crucial weekend in the relegation battle and Watford will be desperate to get a positive result here. They have beaten Villa and drew with Man United recently so they have shown glimpses that they are capable of picking up the points they need to stay up, but their lack of consistency looks like it could cost them. Southampton won 1-0 when the sides met earlier in the season thanks to a goal from Che Adams. That game had 13 corners and 4 yellow cards so there are some reasons to be hopeful that this could be a good game for betting purposes. Both teams to score is a difficult one as both teams can be inconsistent. But I feel there is a decent chance we see a couple of goals. Corners look like a good bet with Southampton averaging 6 corners a game and Watford nearly 4.5 per game. The first meeting between these sides produced a few bookings and with two sides out of form having lost their last two games, it would be no surprise to see the odd rash challenge. I feel Southampton may just edge a pretty low quality and cagey game. They can play the rest of this season with a certain amount of freedom as they are in the no mans land of European Football being out of reach but at the same time being well safe from relegation. Watford do not have that luxury and that little bit of freedom that The Saints have may just prove the deciding factor.

Southampton to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 7/4 Skybet (2 points)

7+ Southampton corners – 1/1 Skybet (2 points)

3+ corners and 10+ booking points each team – 1/1 Skybet (2 points)

 

West Ham vs Aston Villa

 

West Ham

Scored – 46

Conceded – 35

Both teams scored – 17/28

Home games both teams scored – 10/14

over 2.5 goals – 15/28

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/14

Corners – 5.43

Corners per home game – 5.57

Yellow cards – 1.36

Yellow cards per home game – 1.36

 

Villa

Scored – 37

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 13/26

Away games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals – 15/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/13

Corners – 5

Corners per Away game – 5.62

Yellow cards – 2.23

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.77

West Ham have lost their last 3 games in all competitions, as they were dumped out of the FA Cup by Southampton before being beaten by Liverpool in the league and then in midweek they lost 1-0 away to Sevilla in The Europa League, but with that being a two legged tie they are still very much in that tie. Villa have won their last three games, all of which came in The Premier League, and they won all of them without scoring as they beat Brighton 2-0, Southampton 4-0 and Leeds 3-0. Villa sit 9th in The league table, 9 points behind West Ham with a game in hand, so a win here would give them the opportunity to cut the gap between the two sides to just 3 points. West Ham have won the last 3 head to head meetings, and are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings with Villa, who have not beaten The Hammers since way back in 2015. The last 4 meetings have all seen both teams score and there were 14 goals in those 4 games, so I feel we could be in for an entertaining game here. I feel this could be quite an end to end game, as both sides are good on the counter and with Villa coming here full of confidence, I expect them to be aggressive with their play. It is tough to separate the two sides and I feel there is a good chance we could see a score draw. Corners look a good bet with both sides consistent in that department. West Ham are low on the card averages, but I would still expect them to see a card or two here, as it should be a close game and as I already pointed out both sides are good on the counter, and I would expect a couple of those counter attacks to be broken up by fouls. This should be a good game to watch, and I feel there is a very good chance that both teams score here and with it being difficult to split the two sides, I feel we could see an entertaining 2-2 draw here.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/6 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

 

Arsenal vs Leicester

 

Arsenal

Scored – 41

Conceded – 29

Both teams scored – 10/25

Home games both teams scored – 6/13

over 2.5 goals – 14/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 5.60

Corners per home game – 7.08

Yellow cards – 1.68

Yellow cards per home game – 2

 

Leicester

Scored – 40

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 16/25

Away games both teams scored – 10/12

over 2.5 goals – 16/25

Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/12

Corners – 5.12

Corners per Away game – 5.50 

Yellow cards – 1.32

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.58

Arsenal have won their last 4 league games, beating Wolves twice, Brentford and Watford last time out. They sit in 4th spot at the time of writing with games in hand on all teams around them, and they would be the favorites right now to grab the final top 4 spot to Qualify for the Champions League. Leicester are in 12th spot, and whilst they also have games in hand on teams around them, it looks as though a top half finish is the best they could manage at the end of what has been a disappointing season. Arsenal won 2-0 when the sides first met this season, in a game where Leicester had chances but could not score, thanks in part to some incredible goalkeeping from Aaron Ramsdale who produced what has a good chance of being the save of the season in that game when he denied James Maddison. Arteta’s men have won 3 of the last 4 head to head meetings with Leicester. Brendan Rodgers’ side have won their last 4 games in all competitions as they beat Rangers and Rennes in the Europa Conference League, and Burnley and Leeds in the league. I feel this could be a very good game to watch and bet on, and a lot of that is down to Leicester. The Foxes can play with freedom in the league now as they really have nothing to play for at this point. I know people will say they are pro footballers so they always have something to play for, but they are safe from relegation with European qualification well of reach, so I feel this may allow them to play with freedom in what remains of their league campaign. With both sides in form I feel there is a good chance both sides will score here. Corners look a good bet with both sides happy to attack in the wide channels. We should see a few cards as well as both sides have players who are prone to putting in a big challenge, and both have players who are good at winning fouls and trying to milk the referee. Leicester are back in form but at home I still favor Arsenal to come out on top by a 3-1 score line.

Arsenal to win 3-1 – 12/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 6/1 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray