Premier League stats and best bets – Sunday 13th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Burnley vs Liverpool

 

Burnley

Scored – 17

Conceded – 28

Both teams scored – 11/20

Home games both teams scored – 5/9

over 2.5 goals – 8/20

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/9

Corners – 4.35

Corners per home game – 5.33

Yellow cards – 2 

Yellow cards per home game – 2.33

 

Liverpool

Scored – 60

Conceded – 19

Both teams scored – 10/23

Away games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 17/23

Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/12

Corners – 7.87

Corners per Away game – 7.83

Yellow cards – 1.30

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.42

Liverpool sit in 2nd spot in the league, and whilst the gap to Man City looks big at 9 points (possibly 12 points if the defending champions win away at Norwich on Saturday), should Liverpool win their 2 games in hand that they have on the Manchester club, the gap would be 6 points and they still have to play each other again, and should Liverpool win that we could be looking at a 3 point title race, but for any of that to matter Liverpool need to be almost perfect in their remaining games. Burnley frustrated Man United in their last game as they held them to a 1-1 draw, and they have a fight themselves to stay in the division, but like Liverpool they have games in hand on sides around them. Burnley did come away to Liverpool and win 1-0 in January of last year, but Liverpool have won 6 of the last 8 head to head meetings and with Mo Salah and Sadio Mane both returning from their exploits at The African Cup of Nations, they find themselves back to full strength. I see Burnley setting up similar to how they did against United, as if you told them they would take 2 points from their 2 games against Liverpool and United they would have taken that before a ball was kicked. I don’t see them getting a draw here though. Liverpool need to win these games to keep the pressure on City, and now they are back to full strength I see them having too much for Burnley. It wouldn’t surprise me too much if Burnley scored, as they always pose a threat from set pieces and balls into the box, and I don’t think it will be a cricket score, but I can see Liverpool scoring three goals as they run out convincing winners.

Liverpool to win 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

 

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Newcastle

Scored – 24

Conceded – 44

Both teams scored – 15/22

Home games both teams scored – 9/12

over 2.5 goals – 11/22

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 4.45

Corners per home game – 4.33

Yellow cards – 2.41

Yellow cards per home game – 2.08

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 31

Conceded – 35

Both teams scored – 13/22

Away games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 4.91

Corners per Away game – 5.91

Yellow cards – 2.14

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.45

Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 4 league games now as they have won their last 2 games, with a 1-0 win away at Leeds followed up by a 3-1 win at home against Everton. Villa played out a very entertaining 3-3 draw with Leeds in their last game, and I feel we could be in for another thrilling encounter here. Every Newcastle game is going to have a lot of attention for the rest of this season, given how they strengthened in the January transfer window, and plus the fact that all the talk of the future and challenging for trophies starts with them having to stay in the division this season. Villa themselves are one of those clubs who I feel have potential to be a regular top half team, and additions like Phillipe Coutinho who arrived in January could help them make that a reality. Villa sit just outside the top half and Newcastle just outside the relegation zone (at the time of writing before Saturday’s games have been played), and I feel this could be the most entertaining game of the day. 75% of Newcastle home games in the league have seen both teams score, and I think that will happen here. Villa are a great team to watch as they are good going forward, but they leave space in behind which can lead to very end to end and exciting games to watch. The stats suggest corners and cards will both be a good addition to bets, and this should be quite an end to end game I feel which should lead to both sides having corners and professional fouls breaking up counter attacks. I can see this ending in a 2-2 draw where both sides have chances to win it but can’t find the winning goal.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 BetVictor (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Spurs vs Wolves

Spurs

Scored – 28

Conceded –  27

Both teams scored – 8/21

Home games both teams scored – 4/11

over 2.5 goals – 12/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/11

Corners – 5.48

Corners per home game – 5.91

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per home game – 1.64

 

Wolves

Scored – 19

Conceded – 17

Both teams scored – 6/22

Away games both teams scored – 3/11

over 2.5 goals – 5/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 2/11

Corners – 4.41

Corners per Away game – 4.73

Yellow cards – 1.77

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.91

Spurs were beaten by Southampton in their last game and they currently sit in 7th place, with games in hand on all teams above them. Wolves sit just 1 spot below Spurs in the league table. Wolves saw their 3 game winning streak in the Premier League ended in their last game as they lost 1-0 to Arsenal. Spurs have won the last 2 league meetings, by 2-0 and 1-0 scorelines, and like them games,  I don’t see this game having a lot of goals. I can see this game easily ending in a 0-0 or 1-1 draw, and feel it may be a bit of a boring watch at times and be played at quite a slow place. Corners look like a promising angle from the stats but I feel cards may be the best angle to focus on. Both sides have players who are prone to a little bit of play acting, as well as players who love to put in a physical challenge. I see this being a very hard fought game where neither side gives an inch, and feel we could see quite a few names being taken. I would favor a draw, though I would not be surprised if Spurs managed to pinch it 1-0, so the result and goals is not an angle I’m mad about playing here, with corners and cards the best areas to focus on.

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/6 Skybet (2 points)

60+ match booking points – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

 

Leicester vs West Ham

Leicester

Scored – 34

Conceded – 39

Both teams scored – 14/21

Home games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 4.76

Corners per home game – 4.73

Yellow cards – 1.24

Yellow cards per home game – 1.09

 

West Ham

Scored – 42

Conceded – 31

Both teams scored – 15/24

Away games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 14/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 5.67

Corners per Away game – 5.33

Yellow cards – 1.29

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.33

Leicester were beaten by Liverpool in their last league game, and including their FA Cup exit against Nottingham Forest, they are now without a win in their last 4 games in all competitions. West Ham beat Watford in their last league game to snap their 2 game losing run in the league. In recent years this has been a very entertaining game. 15 of the last 19 head to head games in all competitions have had both teams score. All of the last 6 head to head meetings have finished with over 2.5 goals. The last 4 head to head meetings have ended 4-1 to Leicester, and then three wins for West Ham by 3-0, 3-2 and 4-1 scorelines. So needless to say I expect both teams will score and we see over 2.5 goals. Corners look another good angle from the stats, but cards are pretty light so it’s not a game where I will be looking to back cards. It’s difficult to split the two teams, but on current form and their head to head record in recent times, West Ham would have to be the pick, but I can see Leicester putting in an improved showing on recent games and feel we could see this game end in a 2-2 draw. West Ham are firmly in the hunt for top 4 with Leicester in the difficult spot of being safe from relegation but finding European qualification out of reach. West Ham games always seem to be exciting to watch and with Liecester having nothing to lose I expect them to play with a freedom which should make this a very enjoyable game to watch.

2-2 correct score – 13/1 BetVictor (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 11/10 Skybet (3 points)

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – 5/6 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray