Premier League stats and best bets -Sunday 10th April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Brentfotrd vs West Ham

Brentford

Scored – 37
Conceded – 48
Both teams scored – 17/31
Home games both teams scored – 7/15
over 2.5 goals – 17/31
Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/15
Corners – 3.90
Corners per home game – 4.33
Yellow cards – 1.77
Yellow cards per home game – 1.67

West Ham

Scored – 51
Conceded – 40
Both teams scored – 20/31
Away games both teams scored – 8/15
over 2.5 goals – 18/31
Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/15
Corners – 5.23
Corners per Away game – 5.13
Yellow cards – 1.32
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.33

Brentford come here on the back of their heroics where they beat Chelsea away from home by a stunning 4-1 scoreline  and they have now won 3 of their last 4 premier League games. West Ham won their last league game but also have The Europa League to focus on where they drew with Lyon 1-1 in mid week despite going down to 10 men. Brentford won the reverse fixture 2-1 and West Ham will be desperate to return the favour here given that both Man United and Arsenal both lost this weekend. Brentford will be the fresher side and it will be interesting if they try to use that to their advantage here by playing at a high tempo. I can see West Ham being happy to take the sting out of the game and keep possession at times. I feel this may be one of the less spectacular Premier league games from a viewers perspective and its difficult to weigh up. The result and goals are not really markets I’m too desperate to get involved in. I think it will be quite even and we should see both sides get opportunities with Brentford having hoke advantage and fresher legs. I cam see this ending in a 1-1 draw though it would not surprise me if either side pinched this 2-1

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 5/4 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

Leicester vs Crystal Palace

Leicester

Scored – 43
Conceded – 47
Both teams scored – 18/28
Home games both teams scored – 7/14
over 2.5 goals – 17/28
Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/14
Corners – 5.04
Corners per home game – 4.57
Yellow cards – 1.39
Yellow cards per home game – 1.07

Crystal Palace

Scored – 42
Conceded – 38
Both teams scored – 15/30
Away games both teams scored -6/14
over 2.5 goals – 16/30
Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/14
Corners – 4.40
Corners per Away game – 4.14
Yellow cards – 1.73
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.71

This is quite an interesting game here as both sides really don’t have too much left to play for in the League this season with both sides comfortably in mid table. Palace have an FA Cup semi final to focus on and Leicester seem to have switched their focus to the Europa Conference League and the possibility of picking up some European Silverware, which whilst it may not seem like the biggest competition, is still a good opportunity to get something from what has been an ultimately disappointing season for the foxes. The meeting earlier in the season between these sides ended in a 2-2 draw, and with both sides having freedom in this game we could see a similar entertaining game here. This is another game today that I’m not too mad about getting involved in from a betting point of view. I feel it could be quite open and end to end at times and it should be quite an even game as well. With nothing to seperate the two sides I feel we could see another draw between these two.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 10+ booking points each team – 5/2 Skybet (1 point) 

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

Norwich vs Burnley

Norwich

Scored – 18
Conceded – 63
Both teams scored – 12/30
Home games both teams scored – 8/15
over 2.5 goals – 18/30
Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/15
Corners – 4.33
Corners per home game – 5.33
Yellow cards – 1.60
Yellow cards per home game – 1.60

Burnley

Scored – 25
Conceded – 42
Both teams scored – 13/29
Away games both teams scored – 7/14
over 2.5 goals – 11/29
Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/14
Corners – 4.59
Corners per Away game – 4
Yellow cards – 1.83
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.86

Norwich find themselves bottom of the table in what is surely a must win game if they are to have any hope of staying up. Burnley got a big win against Everton in their last game but now find themselves 4 points behind The Toffees after Frank Lampards side beat Man United yesterday. The meeting earlier this season between these two finished 0-0? And I feel we could see a similarly close game here. I feel for both sides really this is must win, Burnley have to respond to what Everton did yesterday and given how hard the Everton run In to this season is, they will know that a win here and moving back to 1 point behind Everton will take a bit of air out of the Everton balloon after their big win yesterday. Norwich just simply have to win, It would already qualify as a great escape but at home against a fellow relegation struggler this is a game where they have to take all 3 points to have any chance of staying up. Whilst Burbley are used to being in this kind of position, things are getting a little bit desperate for them now and there is no doubt they will be worried at Turf Moor. Burnley have to be favourites in this game and I feel we could see them squeak a win here in a very tight and low scoring game. I like the angle of corners and cards in this game as well. Both sides are direct and both will get opportunities to attack, which should favour corners. I feel cards is almost a given with the circumstances surrounding this game, and at times I wouldn’t be surprised if this became quite an old fashioned game of football. I actually believe this could be a really good game to watch and I expect this to be the game which ultimately is the final nail in the Norwich coffin and gives them no hope of staying up.

Burnley to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 8/11 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

50+ match booking points – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

Man City vs Liverpool

Man City

Scored – 70
Conceded – 18
Both teams scored – 10/30
Home games both teams scored – 4/14
over 2.5 goals – 15/30
Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/14
Corners – 8.53
Corners per home game – 9.07
Yellow cards – 1.17
Yellow cards per home game – 0.93

Liverpool

Scored – 77
Conceded – 20
Both teams scored – 11/30
Away games both teams scored – 6/15
over 2.5 goals – 19/30
Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/15
Corners – 7.50
Corners per Away game – 7.53
Yellow cards – 1.20
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.33

A crucial game in the race for the Premier League title, and given the form both sides are in it would be no surprise if a win here for either team ends up being the deciding factor in this seasons title race. City are unbeaten in the last 4 meetings with Liverpool, as there have been two draws at 2-2 and 1-1, then I the other two games they put 4 past Liverpool in each game as they beat them 4-0 and 4-1. Liverpool have won 9 of their last 10 games in all competitions with the only defeat coming against Inter Milan in a game that ultimately carried little weight. City themselves have been in fine form and in midweek they saw off Atletico Madrid thanks to a strike from Kevin De Bruyne. I think its safe to say that City will not be facing quite as defensive a set up as they did in that Champions League tie. With so much attacking talent on shoe you have to expect goals, ot would be quite a surprise if we didn’t see both teams score here. With home advantage and recent head to head form I favor City in this game and feel they may just edge past Liverpool. These games can sometimes be quite cagey to start, and what I have noticed is that it usually effects corners more than any other market. These are not the type of teams to put 50/50 balls into the box, they will happily cut back and pas the ball back into their midfield and defence just to keep possession, so corners is a market where I’m not going to be pushing bets too much in this game. I feel we should see some cards here given how important the game is but also how good both teams are on the counter. I can see City getting the win but in truth this should be a great game to watch and really has am anything can happen feel to it.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

Man City to win 3-2 – 25/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score in both halves – 9/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray