Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 9th April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Everton vs Man United

 

Everton

Scored – 32

Conceded – 52

Both teams scored – 15/29

Home games both teams scored – 6/14

over 2.5 goals – 17/29

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/14

Corners – 4.21

Corners per home game – 5.07

Yellow cards – 2.17

Yellow cards per home game – 2.36

 

Man United

Scored – 49

Conceded – 41

Both teams scored – 19/30

Away games both teams scored – 11/14

over 2.5 goals – 14/30

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/14

Corners – 5.27

Corners per Away game – 5.29

Yellow cards – 2.07

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.29

Man United come here in 7th spot but could go level on points with Arsenal and Spurs in 4th and 5th should they win here. Everton suffered a real blow in midweek when they lost to fellow relegation strugglers Burnley and will now be really starting to worry. Everton have a pretty tough run in to the season and their next 5 games see them play Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester twice, and on current form it really would not be a surprise to see them take no points from any of those games. All United have left to play for is top 4 and this is a good opportunity for them to put some pressure on sides above them. The last 2 meetings between these sides in the league have both ended in draws, 1-1 and 3-3. Despite being out of form I still think Everton will give United a good game here. United have problems themselves so away from home with a very vocal crowd against a side fighting for their lives, it would be no surprise to see United show the inconsistency that has cost them before. I feel we could see a few goals in this game. United always carry an attacking threat and against a side like Everton they are sure to get opportunities. United defensively are hardly a solid outfit and Everton do have attacking quality in their side. I feel this could be quite an entertaining and end to end game to watch. Corners and especially cards both look like they are good betting angles to me. Everton need a response I front of their home fans so I feel they will look to attack and get the crowd behind them. I really like cards in this game as both sides have players who love a big challenge and also players who like to milk the referee and make the most out of challenges. I feel this could be a shoot out where United just outgun Everton and put more misery on Frank Lampard

Man United to win 3-1 – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 13/2 Skybet (1 point)

60+ match booking points – 11/4 Skybet (2 points)

 

Arsenal vs Brighton

 

Arsenal

Scored – 44

Conceded – 34

Both teams scored – 10/29

Home games both teams scored – 6/15

over 2.5 goals – 15/29

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/15

Corners – 5.17

Corners per home game – 6.33

Yellow cards – 1.62

Yellow cards per home game – 1.73

 

Brighton

Scored – 26

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 14/30

Away games both teams scored – 9/14

over 2.5 goals – 7/30

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/14

Corners – 5.60

Corners per Away game – 4.86

Yellow cards – 1.90

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.93

Arsenal come here on the back of a crushing 3-0 defeat away at Crystal Palace and know that they can’t afford to many more slip ups given how competitive the top 4 race is. Brighton are winless in their last 7 league games, after they lost 6 in a row and then drew 0-0 with Norwich last time out. It might be a bit unfair to say that Arsenal come here in poor form but they do need to bounce back as they were pretty shocking against Palace. It ended 0-0 when these sides met earlier this season amd the current form especially of Brighton makes this a tough game to weigh up. Arsenal are the better team there is no doubt, but when they are in form Brighton can cause problems for any team in this league, its just a question of can they bounce back and find some form. I feel this could be quite a slow and methodical game for long periods with neither side wanting to risk too much especially in the early periods as the first goal here could be crucial. I see a low scoring game where Arsenal just manage to come out on top. Corners look a good angle for bets as Brighton may not be a side you really associate with a lot of corners but they are a bit if a dark horse in that department, and at home Arsenal are usually consistent at getting corners. It’s not a game where I would be going crazy about cards but I feel there’s a chance we see both sides pick up a booking as both sides will be desperate to bounce back from their recent results.

Arsenal to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 13/8 Skybet (2 points)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

 

Southampton vs Chelsea

 

Southampton

Scored – 37

Conceded – 46

Both teams scored – 19/30 

Home games both teams scored – 9/15

over 2.5 goals – 16/30

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/15

Corners –  6.40

Corners per home game – 6.60

Yellow cards – 1.83

Yellow cards per home game – 1.80

 

Chelsea

Scored – 58

Conceded – 23

Both teams scored – 14/29

Away games both teams scored – 6/15

over 2.5 goals – 15/29

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/15

Corners – 6.55

Corners per Away game – 5.27

Yellow cards – 1.66

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.67

Southampton come here without a win in their last 4 league games, but they did break a 3 game losing run with a draw against Leeds in their last game. Chelsea come here having conceded 7 in their last 2 games, and whilst conceding 3 at home to Real Madrid will be disappointing, it is nowhere near as shocking as their 4-1 loss at home to Brentford last weekend. Chelsea have been plagued by off the field issues these last few weeks and it appears to be affecting them on the pitch now as well. The last 4 meetings between these sides, 3 in the league and 1 in the league Cup, have seen 3 draws, with two 1-1 games and then a 3-3 draw as well. Chelsea won the other fixture 3-1 so it’s a game that in recent time has not been a walk in the park for Chelsea. This is a difficult game to analyse as two sides come here out of form. Chelsea are obviously the better side and I will be shocked if Tuchel doesn’t make some changes from their last couple of games. I felt they missed Marcos Alonso in midweek who always carries an attacking threat going forward, and I would expect Romelu Lukaku to start this game, as despite him missing a sitter in the tie against Real Madrid mid week, having him up top will allow Chelsea to be more direct with their attacks which with them being low on confidence is something they will surely look to do. All of Saints’ last 4 games in all competition have seen both teams score and with Chelsea’s defensive problems I feel there is a good chance they grab a goal here. Corners look a good bet and whilst cards wouldn’t be a surprise with two sides looking to bounce back and get a positive result, its not a game where I expect a lot of cards, though I feel we could see both teams get a name taken. I expect Chelsea to bounce back here as they beat Southampton 3-1 in a game that is not as comfortable as the scoreline suggests

Chelsea to win 3-1 – 16/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score,1+ corner each team in each half and 10+ booking points each team – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Lukaku to score and Chelsea to win (only a recommended bet if Lukaku starts the game) – 13/5 Skybet (1 point)

 

Watford vs Leeds

 

Watford

Scored – 29

Conceded – 57

Both teams scored – 14/30

Home games both teams scored – 8/14

over 2.5 goals – 15/30

Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/14

Corners – 4.23

Corners per home game – 4.36

Yellow cards – 1.80

Yellow cards per home game – 2.07

 

Leeds

Scored – 35

Conceded – 68

Both teams scored – 19/31

Away games both teams scored – 9/15

over 2.5 goals – 20/31

Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/15

Corners – 4.65

Corners per Away game – 4

Yellow cards – 2.90

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.87

Another huge game in the relegation battle and one that I think is must win for Watford if they are to have any hope of staying in the top flight of English Football. Watford are 8 points behind today’s opponents Leeds with a game in hand. A win here would take that gap to 5 and they would still have the game in hand on Leeds, and a win here could also move Watford level on points with Everton (depending how Everton get on in their game vs Man United earlier in the day) and given how hard a run in Everton have, Watford will be desperate to get some pressure on them. Leeds are unbeaten in their last 3 league games, beating Norwich and Wolves before drawing with Southampton in their last game. Watford have now lost 6 of their last 9 league games and were beaten 2-0 by Liverpool last time out. A point for Leeds probably would not be the worst result here, but Watford really have to go for the win, and I feel that could almost help Leeds are they can be a very good side on the counter, and it sets this game up nicely. I feel there is a good chance both teams score here, due in a big way to the fact that neither side can be trusted defensively. An early goal especially could really open this game up. I feel corners and cards are both good bets as well. Leeds corner average has dropped from last season but they are still a side who likes to attack in the wide channels and get shots at goal and against a side like Watford they should have  attacking opportunities that lead to corners, and with Watford being at home they are sure to have periods where they build pressure. Given that both sides have ti play for I expect a few cards. The crowd should be vocal and Leeds know a win here could almost guarantee them Premier League football next season, and Watford know anything but a win could mean they are back in The Championship next season. I see an entertaining game where Leeds walk away the happier side as the spoils are shared in a 2-2 draw.

2-2 correct score – 12/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

 

Aston Villa vs Spurs

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 42

Conceded – 42

Both teams scored – 15/30

Home games both teams scored – 8/14

over 2.5 goals – 18/30

Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/14

Corners – 5.23

Corners per home game – 4.50

Yellow cards – 2.23

Yellow cards per home game – 1.79

 

Spurs

Scored – 52

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 12/30

Away games both teams scored – 6/15

over 2.5 goals – 18/30

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/15

Corners – 5.17

Corners per Away game – 4.73

Yellow cards – 1.77

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.87

Villa have a top half finish as their goal for the remainder of the season, but they come here having lost their last 3 league games in a row to West Ham, Arsenal and Wolves last time out. Spurs are right in the mix for top 4  and whether this game is an opportunity to make ground or a necessity to maintain ground will depend on how Man United and Spurs get on earlier in the day. In recent years this has been an entertaining game with 4 of the last 5 head to head matches having both teams score and there have been 17 goals in those 5 games as well, with 11 for Sphrs and 6 for Villa. Spurs have won 7 of the last meetings they have had with Villa in all competitions. I feel this could be a very entertaining game. The Villa Park home fans add a real atmosphere to their sides home games and with Spurs you always get the added potential that almost anything could happen. When they are at their best they can beat anyone, but they have a tendency to make the odd mistake or put in the odd below par performance which can make their games very good to watch. Recent history suggests a good chance that both teams score in this game and I feel there is a great chance that happens again here. Corners look a good bet with these two sides and I also feel we should see a few cards. The atmosphere will help but Villa really need to bounce back and look to to the season in a high, whilst Spurs can’t afford to drop points in a very competitive battle for top 4. Spurs have to be favorites but at home I feel Villa can get something from this game and feel we could see an entertaining score draw where both sides have chances to win.

2-2 correct score – 12/1 Betvictor (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 11/2 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 8/11 Skybet (3 points)

Author: Eva Gray