Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 7th May

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Brentford vs Southampton

Brentford

Scored – 41
Conceded – 52
Both teams scored – 18/35
Home games both teams scored – 7/17
over 2.5 goals – 19/35
Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/17
Corners – 4.29
Corners per home game – 4.76
Yellow cards – 1.66
Yellow cards per home game – 1.59

Southampton

Scored – 41
Conceded – 58
Both teams scored – 21/35
Away games both teams scored – 11/17
over 2.5 goals – 19/35
Away games over 2.5 goals – 12/17
Corners – 6.34
Corners per Away game – 6.41
Yellow cards – 1.74
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.76

Brentford were beaten 3-0 by Man United in their last league game, whilst Southampton lost 2-1 to Crystal Palace. Neither side is technically safe from relegation just yet, but it would take a massive twist to see either of these in any real danger in the few games that remain. This is one of the least exciting games this weekend in my opinion from a viewing perspective. Both sides coming off losses and both sides have been pretty inconsistent this season. Brentford have had a very good season as survival would always have been their main goal, and they have had some big wins against Chelsea and Arsenal, plus good results and performances against sides like Liverpool, but I still don’t know exactly what to make of them as a top flight team yet. Southampton should be favourites, but they have been up and down all season as well and other than James Ward-Prowse being a threat from dead ball situations, they are not exactly consistent. I can see this ending in a draw. Cards is not an angle I would bet on in a game like this. Corners is a standout angle as Southampton are definitely the more consistent side there and the stats point to a good chance they take more corners here. So a small bet on a 1-1 draw and the big play being on Southampton most corners which looks very strong from the stats.

1-1 correct score – 6/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Southampton most corners – 7/5 Unibet (3 points)

 

Burnley vs Aston Villa

Burnley

Scored – 31
Conceded – 46
Both teams scored – 15/34
Home games both teams scored – 6/17
over 2.5 goals – 12/34
Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/17
Corners – 4.79
Corners per home game – 5.29
Yellow cards – 1.85
Yellow cards per home game – 1.88

Aston Villa

Scored – 44
Conceded – 46
Both teams scored – 15/33
Away games both teams scored – 7/17
over 2.5 goals – 19/33
Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/17
Corners – 5.27
Corners per Away game – 5.88
Yellow cards – 2.27
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.59

Burnley are now unbeaten in their last 4 league games. Having won their last 3 games they sit in 16th spot, 2 places above the bottom 3. Villa are technically still not safe from relegation, and a win for Burnley would move them to 3 points behind Steven Gerrards side, though it would be a huge surprise if Villa were drawn in to any real relegation danger in what remains of this season. Villa bounced back with a 2-0 win against Norwich in their last league game to relegate the side managed by Dean Smith, who started this season in the Villa dug out, though they have still lost 4 of their last 6 league games, so beating the bottom side is not anything to be getting carried away with just yet. Burnley will fancy their chances here, Villa have been out of form in recent weeks and after taking 10 points from the 12 available in their last 4 games, Burnley have momentum. I see this being a good game to watch. Village a proud side and will want to end the season high, whilst Burnley know they are not out of trouble yet so will be desperate for something here, and I cam see them getting it. I feel corners and cards are both good potential bets as well. I see this being a close game that could easily end in a draw, though to see either side pinch it by the odd goal would not be a surprise. I think it should be a good game to watch with Burnley haply to go direct and Villa looking to keep possession to take the sting out of proceedings. Its the type of game that I expect to burst into life at times and feel we could see an entertaining 2-2 draw played out.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corners each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/6 Skybet (3 points)

 

Chelsea vs Wolves

Chelsea

Scored – 68
Conceded – 29
Both teams scored – 16/34
Home games both teams scored – 9/16
over 2.5 goals – 17/34
Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/16
Corners – 6.44
Corners per home game – 7.50
Yellow cards – 1.71
Yellow cards per home game – 1.69

Wolves

Scored – 33
Conceded – 32
Both teams scored – 10/34
Away games both teams scored – 4/17
over 2.5 goals – 11/34
Away games over 2.5 goals – 3/17
Corners – 4.44
Corners per Away game – 4.35
Yellow cards – 1.74
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.53

Chelsea are still plagued with off field issues with major doubts about the clubs future, tickets, contracts and a lot more. They lost 1-0 to Everton in their last league game and will be desperate to regain some form before they go into the FA Cup Final against high flying Liverpool. Wolves have lost their last 3 league games without scoring which has surely cost them a shot at The Europa League, though they are 3 points behind West Ham with a game in hand, so those 2 could be set to fight it out for a spot in next seasons Europa Conference League. This is another race this weekend that I am not overly excited to be betting on. Wolves have built their team around a solid defence and that is reflected in their goal stats, as they are often involved in tight, low scoring games. Chelsea have struggled defensively lately but I feel this could become a very slow and methodical game. Cards is a good potential angle, as both sides have players prone to a rash challenge or trying to milk the referee and create a bit of agro with their opponents. In terms of the result the most likely result I feel is Chelsea win a low scoring tight game. That and some bigger odd bets on cards will be all I back in this game as I really don’t think this is a game for big bets, with the uncertainly around Chelsea and the style of play Wolves have, I feel this could be a tough watch at times.

Chelsea to win and under 2.5 match goals -9/4 Skybet (2 points)

50+ match booking points – 2/1Skybet (2 points)

80+ match booking points – 14/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Crystal Palace vs Watford

Crystal Palace

Scored – 45
Conceded – 42
Both teams scored – 17/34
Home games both teams scored – 9/17
over 2.5 goals – 18/34
Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/17
Corners – 4.53
Corners per home game – 4.71
Yellow cards – 1.74
Yellow cards per home game – 1.76

Watford

Scored – 32
Conceded – 69
Both teams scored – 17/34
Away games both teams scored – 7/17
over 2.5 goals – 19/34
Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/17
Corners – 4.26
Corners per Away game – 4.12
Yellow cards – 1.74
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.47

Palace Scored an injury time winner to beat Southamptom away from home in their last game, whilst Watford Conceded 2 late goals to Burnley which gave them their 5th league defeat in a row. It is likely that today is the day it becomes mathematically official that Watford will be going down this year. Palace have faced a little bit of an end of season hangover after they were knocked out of The FA Cup at the semi-final stage, but they are the better team and especially at home should be winning this game. It is not a game that appeals from a betting point of view to me, its difficult to know what mindset Watford will turn up with and Palace have been inconsistent, especially in the back end of the season. Corners or cards are not angles that I am going to be exploring in this game, I will have a small bet on Palace to win a bit of an entertaining end to end game, as Watford should come to win and play an attacking game as they have nothing to lose, and Palace will want to put on a show for their home fans, but it’s not a game where I would be backing anything at short odds.

Palace to win 3-1 – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

 

Brighton vs Man United

Brighton

Scored – 34
Conceded – 42
Both teams scored – 16/35
Home games both teams scored – 6/17
over 2.5 goals – 11/35
Home games over 2.5 goals – 4/17
Corners – 5.34
Corners per home game – 6.24
Yellow cards – 1.97
Yellow cards per home game – 1.82

Man United

Scored – 57
Conceded – 52
Both teams scored – 22/36
Away games both teams scored – 12/17
over 2.5 goals – 18/36
Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/17
Corners – 5.14
Corners per Away game – 5.29
Yellow cards – 1.97
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.35

Brighton beat Wolves 3-0 in their last league game whilst Man United also won 3-0 in their last game, as they beat Brentford at Old Trafford. The Champions League qualification spots are now surely out of reach for United, as they look set to battle it out with West Ham for a spot in The Europa League. There was a time earlier this season when Brighton looked to potentially have a European challenge going themselves, but they ultimately have fell off the pace, but this has still been a very good season for Brighton and a top half finish will be seen as a very good platform to build from going into next season. Man United have won all of the last 7 head to head meetings with Brighton, by an aggregate score of 18-5, so it is a fixture they have dominated in recent years. I see this being one of the better games from abetting point of view today. Whilst United’s defensive issues have United fans pulling their hair out, it has made them a good side for bets as their games can become very open. Every team wants to beat United, especially sides like Brighton for whom a home victory against United would be a real scalp, and they can definitely cause United problems. I feel like Uniteds firepower could just get them out of trouble again, and it would be no surprise to see Cristiano Ronaldo yet again produce the goods. Corners look a good bet as well with both sides having very respectable averages. It’s the type of game I can see producing cards. Brighton is hardly a daunting place to go, or know for a hostile atmosphere, but I feel this could be a close end to end game and that should get the crowd into it and lead to at least a card for each team. I can see this becoming a shoot out where United’s edge in attacking quality proves the difference.

Man United to win 3-1 – 20/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 10+ booking points each team – 10/3 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (2 points)

 

Liverpool vs Spurs

Liverpool

Scored – 86
Conceded – 22
Both teams scored – 12/34
Home games both teams scored – 5/17
over 2.5 goals – 21/34
Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/17
Corners – 7.47
Corners per home game – 7.88
Yellow cards – 1.35
Yellow cards per home game – 1.12

Spurs

Scored – 59
Conceded – 39
Both teams scored – 13/34
Away games both teams scored -6/17
over 2.5 goals – 20/34
Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/17
Corners – 5.18
Corners per Away game – 4.82
Yellow cards – 1.82
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.88

Liverpool come here on a high having reached the Champions League final in midweek, as they survived a mini scare against Villarreal, who scored 2 goals in the first half to get back level, but Liverpool responded with 3 goals of their own in the 2nd half to progress to the final where they will face Real Madrid. Madrid beat Liverpools league title rivals Man City in their semi-final, and despite Liverpool having big games come thick and fast, with an FA-Cup final thrown into the mix as well, they need to stay on the ball in the league as any slip up from Man City could give Liverpool the opportunity to take the initiative in the title race and give them a very real possibility of clinching an unprecedented quadruple. Spurs battle for top 4 seems a little irrelevant when you look at all that Liverpool have going on, but it definitely isn’t as for Arsenal and Spurs who look set to battle it out for 4th spot, a spot I next seasons Champions League would be huge in terms of their summer recruitment targets, as well as how they look at this season. Spurs will be hoping there is a hangover in the Liverpool ranks, and with Jurgen Klopp’s side playing not just so many games this season, but so many big games, it would be no surprise to see their exploits catch up with them at some point. Liverpool are unbeaten in the last 9 meetings in all competitions against Spurs, and have won 7 of those. Spurs have only won 1 of the last 20 meetings in all competitions against Liverpool, a run that stretches back to 2013, so it is now getting close to just 1 win in this tie for Spurs in 10 years a stat they will be desperate to put right. I can see Spurs looking to be deadly on the counter, their attacking pace is one area where they feel they may have joy against Liverpool and their high wing backs. If spurs can turn over possession and get someone like Son in a one on one situation out wide with a Liverpool centre back or possibly central midfielder, then they could have success. I expect Liverpool to control possession and territory for long periods, but Antonio Conte will have his side well drilled. I feel how this game goes could depend greatly on if we get an early goal. An early Liverpool goal will force Spurs to open up and be more expansive which will be great news for  the watching neutrals. Where as if Spurs get the first goal them I can see them really setting in for an all out siege as they retreat deeper as the game goes on. I feel its worth taking the chance that we get an open and attacking game, and feel that Liverpool may just edge out Spurs in a bit of a shoot out. Corners and cards both look good angles for bets in what should hopefully be an entertaining game with lots of attacking action.

Liverpool to win 3-2 – 22/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 match booking points – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 1/1 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray