Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 5th March

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Leicester vs Leeds

Leicester

Scored – 39

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 16/24

Home games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 16/24

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 5.13

Corners per home game – 4.75

Yellow cards – 1.33

Yellow cards per home game – 1.08

 

Leeds

Scored – 29

Conceded – 60

Both teams scored – 16/26

Away games both teams scored – 8/13

over 2.5 goals – 17/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/13

Corners – 4.46

Corners per Away game – 3.46

Yellow cards – 2.85

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.77

Life without Marcelo Bielsa gets underway. American Jesse Marsch has been given the head coaching job at Leeds and his immediate target will be to keep them in the top flight. Leicester come here after they snapped a 5 game winless run in the league with a 2-0 win over Burnley last time out. Leicester are in 12th right now but with games in hand on all teams around them they will be hopeful of breaking into the top half of the table. I see this being quite an open game, no coach would have been able to fix Leeds defensive problems I the short time they have had since Bielsa was shown the door, and Leicester have struggled defensively all season, and whilst both teams will be pretty disappointed with how their seasons have gone this year, both still carry an attacking threat. I feel this will be a good game for bets, corners should be a solid angle with both teams contributing, as I don’t see either of these being able to control possession,so both should get chances to get forward. Leeds fans will be desperate for a response from their players and The King Power can be a tough place to go as the crowd will get into the game. This should add to the atmosphere and intensity in the game, so I expect a few cards as well. I see Leicester coming out on top at home by a 3-1 score.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20-booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

3-1 Leicester correct score – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

 

Aston Villa vs Southampton

 

Villa

Scored – 33

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 13/25

Home games both teams scored – 8/12

over 2.5 goals – 14/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/12

Corners – 5.04

Corners per home game – 4.42

Yellow cards – 2.28

Yellow cards per home game – 1.75

 

Southampton

Scored – 34

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 16/26

Away games both teams scored – 9/13

over 2.5 goals –  13/26

Away games over 2.5 goals –  10/13

Corners – 5.96

Corners per Away game – 6.08

Yellow cards – 1.88

Yellow cards per Away game – 2

9th Placed Saints play 13th placed Villa with just 5 points separating the sides, and wil Gerrard’s Villa side having a game in hand, a win here could give them the opportunity to go above Southampton in the table. Southampton are unbeaten in their last 7 games in all competitions, with draws against Man United, Man City and victory over Spurs in the league, as well as a 3-1 win against West Ham in The FA Cup. Villa beat Brighton in their last league game after back to back losses against Watford and Newcastle before that. I actually feel this could be quite a good game to watch, and the result is a real 50/50 for me with any result possible. I feel there is a good chance we could see an entertaining draw here. Southampton won 1-0 when the sides met earlier in the season, and The Saints have actually won 7 of the last 9 and 5 of the last 6 matches they have played against Villa. The last two head to heads have both finished 1-0 with one win for either side, but 7 of the last 10 head to head games have seen both teams score. Corners look a solid bet with Southampton having one of the best corner averages in the league, only behind the likes of Man City and Liverpool. Villa at home are usually a pretty reliable side with corners as well. Cards are another solid angle from the stats as well. The last head to head game in November saw Southampton take 10 corners and receive 2 yellow cards, and Villa took 8 corners and also received 2 yellow cards, so I feel this could be one of the best games of the weekend for bets.

Both teams to score, 1+ corners each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 7/2 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 9/4 Skybet (2 points)

15+ match corners – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

2-2 correct score – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

 

Burnley vs Chelsea

 

Burnley

Scored – 22

Conceded – 32

Both teams scored – 12/25

Home games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 9/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/12

Corners – 4.36

Corners per home game – 5/17

Yellow cards – 1.88

Yellow cards per home game – 1.83

 

Chelsea

Scored – 49

Conceded – 18

Both teams scored – 12/25

Away games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals –  12/25

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/13

Corners – 6.44

Corners per Away game – 5.31

Yellow cards – 1.68

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.77

Burnley come here having lost to Leicester last time out, but before that they were in good form with a draw against palace and wins against Brighton and Spurs. Chelsea come here after losing the Carabao Cup final at Wembley on Sunday, and then in midweek they were given a scare by Luton in The FA Cup, but they eventually did prevail 3-2. The meetings between these sides earlier this season ended in a 1-1 draw, but Chelsea had won the last 4 head to head match up’s before that, by an aggregate score of 12-2. Burnley have not beaten Chelsea since back in 2017 when they won away at Stamford Bridge 3-2. It’s been a long week and a long season overall for Chelsea, but they have a deep squad and even though Burnley have looked better in recent games, they would need to take their form to a new level to topple the European champions. This is a game I struggle to get too excited about from a betting or watching the game angle, I can see it being scrappy and slow at times, but ultimately I  expect Chelsea to be able to control the game for long enough to take all 3 points. I think it will be tight and it won’t be easy for Chelsea, but I expect a couple of moments of quality to be the difference as Tuchel’s men leave Turf Moor with a 2-0 win, and 3 points. Chelsea corners is one potential betting angle that I feel may offer some value. I can see them keeping Burnley pinned deep  in their own half and it would be no surprise to see a barrage of shots and crosses that result in corners, as we know Burnley defenders will be throwing their bodies in the way of everything.

9+ Chelsea corners – 9/4 Skybet (2 points)

Chelsea to win 2-0 – 6/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Newcastle vs Brighton

Newcastle

Scored -28

Conceded – 45

Both teams scored – 16/25

Home games both teams scored – 9/13

over 2.5 goals – 11/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 4.56

Corners per home game – 4.23

Yellow cards – 2.40

Yellow cards per home game – 2.15

 

Brighton

Scored – 25

Conceded – 30

Both teams scored – 13/26

Away games both teams scored – 8/13

over 2.5 goals – 6/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 3/13

Corners – 5.27

Corners per Away game – 4.69

Yellow cards – 1.92

Yellow cards per Away game – 2

14th Placed Newcastle play Brighton who are currently in 10th, in a game where 4 of the last 6 head to heads have ended in a draw. Brighton won the other two both 3-0. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 7 league games, having won 4 of their last 5, and they saw off 10 man Brentford last time out. Brighton’s recent form has gone the other way, as they have lost all of their last 3 league games without scoring a single goal, as they were beaten 2-0 by Man United and Villa, and 3-0 by Burnley. Although Newcastle have climbed to 14th in the table, the congested nature of the bottom half means that they are only 4 points away from the drop zone, and 8 points off todays opponents who hold the mid table 10th spot, so they will be keen to keep this good run of form going and avoid being dragged back into the bottom 3. Brighton have lost form at the wrong time and now sit 7 points off Wolves in 8th, which will be disappointing as they once surely had ambitions of breaking into the top 8 and potentially trying to push for a spot in the Europa League or the Europa Conference League. Brighton are still a difficult team to beat though, and that makes this a difficult game to weigh up. I think Newcastle will be on the front foot for a lot  of the game, especially in the early stages, and it will be interesting if they can find a way to break Brighton down. I hope that Brighton go for the win and play in an attacking style, and with nothing to lose I feel there is a chance they may do that, but this is a different Newcastle side and under Eddie Howe there games have not been as end to end as they were earlier in the season. At home I fancy Newcastle to just edge past Brighton and get the win. Corners look a good bet, at home Newcastle are pretty consistent and Brighton are averaging over 5 corners a game this season.  Cards also look like a solid play with both teams high on the averages. I think both sides will have chances but being in form as well as home support, should be enough for Newcastle to edge out an out of form Brighton side 2-1.

Over 1.5 goals, 3+ corners each team and 30+ match booking points – 13/8 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Newcastle to win 2-1 – 11/1 Bet365 (1 point)

50+ match booking points – 2/1 Skybet (2 points)

 

Norwich vs Brentford

 

Norwich

Scored – 15

Conceded – 55

Both teams scored – 9/26

Home games both teams scored – 6/13

over 2.5 goals – 15/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/13

Corners – 4.54

Corners per home game – 5.54

Yellow cards – 1.69

Yellow cards per home game – 1.69

 

Brentford

Scored – 27

Conceded – 44

Both teams scored – 14/27

Away games both teams scored – 7/13

over 2.5 goals – 14/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 3.78

Corners per Away game – 3

Yellow cards – 1.74

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.77

Bottom club Norwich play 15th placed Brentford, with The Canaries knowing a win here would move them to 4 points behind Brentford with a game in hand, giving them the opportunity to cut that gap to just 1 point. After a strong start to the season Brentford have faltered and defeat here would really set the alarm bells off. I have always felt Brentford would be dragged into the relegation scrap at some point this season, and the fact that Norwich have already beaten them 2-1 this season, and that Norwich are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads winning 4 of those, will make them very wary of today’s opponents. The recent head to head matches suggest this will be tight, with none of the last 7 head to head meetings being decided by more than 1 goal. Brentford are without a win in their last 8 league games, and they have lost 7 of those, scoring just 4 goals in those 8 games and conceding 18. Norwich have lost their last 3 league games, but those games were against City, Liverpool and Southampton, and before that they had drawn with Palace after beating Watford and Everton. I actually fancy Norwich to get the win in this game, I don’t think they are a new side or anything like that, in fact I think Norwich will get relegated this season, but I would not be surprised if Brentford join them. Thomas Frank has seen his side’s form go off the side of a cliff recently, and at the wrong time. The home fans for Norwich are sure to be in full voice and I expect the home side to deliver a win. Neither of these sides can be trusted defensively, so I would not be surprised if both sides score, but I expect Norwich to win by either a 1-0 or 2-1 score line. Corners should be a good bet, both sides will likely enjoy more opportunities than they would against many other sides in this league, so I would not be surprised if both better their corner averages today. I feel like cards are also a very strong angle in this game. Both sides know what this means, and I expect Brentford to try every trick in the book to take the sting out of the game and stop Norwich from building up a head of steam and getting the crowd into it. It should be a hard fought game but I just feel at home and with Brentford woefully out of form, Norwich will not get many better opportunities than this to pick up a win this season.

Norwich to win 2-1 – 11/1 Bet365 (1 point)

60+ match booking points – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

 

Wolves vs Crystal Palace

 

Wolves

Scored – 24

Conceded – 21

Both teams scored – 8/26

Home games both teams scored – 4/12

over 2.5 goals – 7/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 4/12

Corners – 4.46

Corners per home game – 4.33

Yellow cards – 1.73

Yellow cards per home game – 1.83

 

Palace

Scored – 37

Conceded – 38

Both teams scored – 15/27

Away games both teams scored – 6/13

over 2.5 goals –  15/27

Away games over 2.5 goals –  7/13

Corners – 4.56

Corners per Away game –  3.92

Yellow cards – 1.70

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.62

8th placed Wolves play 11th placed Crystal Palace with 10 points separating the sides. Wolves are coming here from back to back defeats as they were beaten 2-1 by Arsenal and then 1-0 by West Ham last time out. Palace come here in and out of form and were held to a 1-1 draw by Brunley in their last league game. Palace won the meeting earlier this season 2-0. In the last 5 head to head meetings all since 2020, none have ended with both teams scoring and there has been just 8 goals in those 5 games, where Palace have won the last 2 and Wolves won the 3 before that. The head to head form suggests this will be tight. Wolves games for the majority of the season have been pretty boring to watch, and whilst their style of play has been effective at getting and keeping them in the top half, it has not made them a great team to  watch or bet on. Palace are kind of similar, especially on the road as you never really know what you are going to get. In terms of goals and the result this is not a game I am crazy about getting involved with, though I do feel it is highly likely we see a low scoring draw either 0-0 or 1-1. Corners and cards are where the best bets for this game are, as although neither of these sides are at the top of the corner averages, they are both consistent and this should be an even game with both sides having chances to get forward. Both teams have players who can be nightmares for referee’s, and the fact I feel this will be a very close game should help bets on cards. I don’t  think this will be the best game to watch this weekend as I expect a pretty dull draw to be played out here.

1-1 correct score – 5/1 William Hill (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 1/1 Skybet (3 points)

50+ match booking points – 2/1 Skybet (2 points)

 

Liverpool vs West Ham

 

Liverpool

Scored – 70

Conceded – 20

Both teams scored – 11/26

Home games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals – 19/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/13

Corners – 7.73

Corners per home game – 7.62

Yellow cards – 1.19

Yellow cards per home game – 1

 

West Ham

Scored – 46

Conceded – 34

Both teams scored – 17/27

Away games both teams scored – 7/13

over 2.5 goals – 15/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 5.41

Corners per Away game – 5.23

Yellow cards – 1.37

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.38

The newly crowned league cup champions who are fresh of a win in The FA Cup midweek, now turn their attention back to the league where they look to chase down leaders Man City. Liverpool will know that City dropping points against United is not a complete longshot, so they will be desperate to take care of business here. Their opponents today however are no push overs, and The hammers have some business to take care of  themselves as they look to secure Champions League football after just missing out last season. West Ham won a memorable tie 3-2 when these sides met earlier this season, so Jurgen Klopp’s reds will be looking to avoid their opponents doing the double over them. Liverpool had won 8 of the 9 head to head games before their last meeting, and the win for David Moyes side against Liverpool was their first since 2016. All of the last 4 head to head meetings have had both teams scoring, and those 4 games have had 17 goals, 7 for West Ham and 10 for Liverpool. So on all known form and the recent head to head matches, this should be an entertaining watch. West Ham crashed out of The FA Cup midweek as they lost 3-1 to Southampton, and there have been some frustrating results in the league recently which suggest the London outfit may be falling off slightly. Liverpool on the other hand are just picking up, as they secured their first trophy of the season and they have their eyes set on more, with The FA Cup, The Premier League and The Champions League still all targets for Liverpool. Liverpool have won their last two league games scoring 9 goals, but those games were against Leeds and Norwich, so they will know they need more here. We should get goals in this one. I expect both teams to score and fancy that Liverpool will just out gun West Ham in a bit of a shoot out. Corners look a good angle but cards is a difficult angle to weigh up,with the stats saying we should be cautious. I expect Liverpool to win 3-1 in an entertaining end to end game where both sides have chances, but the home sides star quality makes them just a little bit more clinical.

Liverpool to win 3-1 – 11/1 Bet365 (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 10/11 Skybet (3 points)

14+ match corners –  7/2 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray