Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 26th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Leeds vs Spurs

 

Leeds

Scored – 29

Conceded – 56

Both teams scored – 16/25

Home games both teams scored – 8/12

over 2.5 goals – 16/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 4.52

Corners per home game – 5.67

Yellow cards – 2.80

Yellow cards per home game – 2.80

 

Spurs

Scored – 31

Conceded – 32

Both teams scored – 9/24

Away games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 13/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/12

Corners – 5.38

Corners per Away game – 4.75

Yellow cards – 1.83

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.92

It’s fair to say Spurs have had an up and down last month or so, after they scored 2 goals in 20 seconds to get a miraculous win against Leicester, to then go and lose their next 3 league games in a row against Chelsea, Southampton and Wolves, only to bounce back with a huge 3-2 win away at reigning champions Man City and then in their last game they were beaten 1-0 by relegation threatened Burnley. So there is one thing to be sure if with Spurs this season, and that is that you never know what to expect. Leeds have been just as entertaining to watch in recent games, though unfortunately for the Elland Road faithful a lot of that entertainment has come at the wrong end of the pitch, and they were well and truly put the sword by Liverpool last time out as they lost 6-0. Most recent Leeds games have been full of goals, with a 4-2 defeat to Man United, a 3-3 draw with Villa, a 3-2 win against West Ham, a 3-1 win against Burnley, a 4-1 defeat to Arsenal, a 7-0 defeat against Man City, a 3-2 loss against Chelsea and a 2-2 draw with Brentford all coming in their last 11 league games. Those last 11 league games have seen a remarkable 52 goals, but the bad news is only 16 of those goals have been for Leeds. On current form this game really could end up being absolutely anything, and you throw in a vocal home crowd who are well aware that their side are now only 3 points above the drop zone and that most teams below them have 1 or 2 games in hand on them, and this promises to be a very entertaining watch. Like with any Leeds game Corners and cards both look good bets. The goal stats prove that Leeds games are entertaining watches, and the end to end style of play which usually develops in their matches usually always gives corners and cards a good chance to materialize. I expect goals, though the result probably depends on which Spurs shows up. The spurs that beat City would most likely outgun Leeds here and win a shootout, but the Spurs side we saw lose to Burnley could struggle. I see both sides scoring, and feel at home against an inconsistent Spurs side Leeds will have opportunities to get something from this game. I feel we could see a very entertaining 2-2 draw, though it would not surprise me too much if either side managed to pinch it 3-2. I feel this could easily be the best game of the weekends fixtures, I just hope it delivers as on paper, this could be a game full of action.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

2-2 correct score – 12/1 bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

 

Brentford vs Newcastle

Brentford

Scored – 27

Conceded – 42

Both teams scored – 14/26

Home games both teams scored – 7/13

over 2.5 goals -14/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 3.69

Corners per home game – 4.38

Yellow cards – 1.69

Yellow cards per home game – 1.62

 

Newcastle

Scored – 26

Conceded – 45

Both teams scored – 16/24

Away games both teams scored – 7/11

over 2.5 goals – 11/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/11

Corners – 4.50

Corners per Away game – 4.82

Yellow cards – 2.46

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.82

What could be a crucial game in the relegation picture come the end of the season, as 14th placed Brentford play 17th placed Newcastle. Just 2 points seperate the sides, and a Newcastle win here would see them move to 1 point above Brentford with 2 games in hand, which would be a huge step for Newcastle and very bad news for Brentford. Anyone who reads these previews regularly knows that Brentford are still one of my picks to get relegated, and it’s 7 Premier League games without a win now for Thomas Frank’s side, and they have lost 6 of those games, so they will be desperate to snap that streak here. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 6 league games, with some big results having drawn with Man United before beating Villa and Everton, and most recently they secured a 1-1 draw against West Ham, so it is clear that Eddie Howe’s arrival along with on field reinforcements is having the desired effect. I can see this being at times quite a cagey game, mainly due to Brentford and them not wanting to be too expensive. I feel an open game favours Newcastle more so Brentford will want to keep things tight and make the most of their set pieces and attacking opportunities. On current form you have to favour Newcastle, and I fancy them to get the result here. I feel there is a good chance both teams can score, 4 of the last 6 Newcastle league games have had both teams score and 5 of the last 8 Brentford league games have had both teams score. I fancy Newcastle to win by a 2-1 or 3-1 score line. This should be quite an even game with both sides having opportunities to get forward and both like to attack in the wide channels and get balls into the box, which will suit corners. Cards looks a good bet, especially given that both sides will know how important this game is to their season. I expect Newcastle to win and this game to be a firm marker of the point where Brentford became fully embroiled in a fight for their Premier league survival.

3-1 Newcastle correct score – 28/1 bet365 (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

60+ match booking points – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

 

Brighton vs Aston Villa

 

Brighton

Scored – 25

Conceded – 28

Both teams scored – 13/25

Home games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 6/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/12

Corners – 5.20

Corners per home game – 5.75

Yellow cards – 1.84

Yellow cards per home game – 1.67

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 31

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 13/24

Away games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 14/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 5.17

Corners per Away game – 5.92

Yellow cards – 2.17

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.58

9th placed Brighton play 13th placed Villa, with the visitors 6 points behind the seagulls, but with a game in hand, so they know a win here would give them the opportunity to move level on points with their hosts, should they manage to win that game in hand. Villa won the reverse fixture 2-0 thanks to 2 late goals from Ollie Watkins and Tyrone Mings, in a game that had plenty of action with 5 Villa and 6 Brighton corners, and 3 yellow cards for each team. 7 of the last 9 head to head meetings have seen both teams score, but the slightly discouraging news is that the 2 games that didn’t were the most recent two. Villa are a frustrated side right now, coming off back to back 1-0 defeats, against Newcastle and Watford, which are two games that Gerrard would expect his side to be winning, but it is just 1 win in their last 7 league games for Villa, and after starting so we’ll, Gerrard’s side are in a slump right now. Brighton have also lost their last 2 league games, 2-0 to Man United and then 3-0 to Burnley in their last game . They themselves have win just 1 of their last 6 league games, so both sides come here with a point to prove on current form. 2 of the last 3 Brighton home league games have ended in 1-1 draws and I feel a similar result is likely here. I also feel there is a chance we could see more goals and a 2-2 draw, but with both sides struggling for form right now I feel a 1-1 draw is a likely result as they will both be desperate to at least avoid defeat here. Corners and cards both look good bets. The game earlier in the season between these two produced plenty of both, and the even nature of the game where both sides have opportunities should help those bets as well. I see this being a hard fought game with neither side giving an inch as they play out an entertaining draw.

1-1 correct score – 11/2 bet365 (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 match booking points – 5/4 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

4+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

 

Crystal Palace vs Burnley

 

Crystal Palace

Scored – 36

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 14/26

Home games both teams scored – 8/13

over 2.5 goals – 15/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/13

Corners – 4.54

Corners per home game – 5.15

Yellow cards – 1.77

Yellow cards per home game – 1.92

 

Burnley

Scored – 21

Conceded – 29

Both teams scored – 11/23

Away games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 9/23

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 4.30

Corners per Away game – 3.58

Yellow cards – 1.91

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.92

11th placed Palace play 18th placed Burnley, with both sides coming off wins in their last games. Palace beat Watford 4-1 to snap a run of 6 league games without a win. Burnley beat Spurs 1-0 and have now actually won their last 2 league gams after they beat Brighton 3-0 before that. Burnley have picked up two huge wins in their last league games, and they now look in a much better position to survive another season in the top flight. These sides played out one of the games of the season earlier in in season, as it ended in a 3-3 draw with 3 Burnley and 6 Palace corners, and 2 Burnley and 3 Palace yellows. Its fair to say that game was a bit of an outlier on recent form between these two, as 8 of the last 10 head to head games have failed to see both teams score and 4 of those games ended with just 1 goal. It’s a difficult game to weigh up as on paper you expect a tight game, but Burnley are a better footballing side than they get credit for, and ad they showed when these sides last met, they will be involved in some very entertaining games from time to time, and away at Selhurst Park with a very vocal home crowd, I do have a feeling that this is the type of game that could produce a very entertaining 90 minutes. There is something about Crystal Palace home games where you feel like the game is never far away from sparking into life or blowing up completely. You look at the last 6 Palace home games they have lost 1-0 to Chelsea, 3-1 to Liverpool, 3-2 to West Ham, beat Norwich 3-0, drawn 2-2 with Southampton and beat Everton 3-1. All these games were entertaining for their own reasons, as even against Liverpool and Chelsea, Palace were in the game. Those last 6 Palace home games have also seen 22 yellow cards, which highlights how the crowd can get into these games and the compact nature of the stadium really does create a good atmosphere. I feel this may be a bit of a dark horse and be a very entertaining game to watch. Both teams to score is a tough market to call but after the last meeting between these sides it’s probably not something you would want to bet against. Burnley will be full of confidence and at home Palace will fancy their chances of scoring as well. I have already highlighted corners and cards being good bets, as both teams can be direct and get balls into the box which will help corners, and Palace home games usually produce at least a few bookings. I could be completely wrong, but I see this being a good game for bets, and feel there is a chance we could see these sides play out their second score draw of the season, by a 2-2 scoreline, though I do have to say a 1-1 draw would not be a bad bet either.

2-2 correct score – 20/1 bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 7/1 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 5/6 Skybet (3 points)

60+ match booking points 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

 

Man United vs Watford

 

Man United

Scored – 44

Conceded – 34

Both teams scored – 16/26

Home games both teams scored – 6/13

over 2.5 goals – 12/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/13

Corners – 5.42

Corners per home game -5.38

Yellow cards – 2.19

Yellow cards per home game – 2

 

Watford

Scored – 25

Conceded – 47

Both teams scored – 12/25

Away games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 12/25

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/12

Corners – 4.60

Corners per Away game – 4.58

Yellow cards – 1.92

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.67

The reverse fixture was the final game that Ole Gunner Solskjaer was manager at Man Utd for, as Watford won 4-1 and the United manager was axed shortly after. Watford have lost 3 of their last 4 league games with a 1-0 win over Villa their only win in their last 13 league games, since they beat United in November. United are coming off what would have to be called a successful away leg of their Champions League last 16 tie, where they drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid thanks to a late strike from Anthony Elanga. In terms of competitiveness this is not one of the games that gets the blood flowing this weekend. Watford gave already beaten United this season and United have proven they are not a side to bank on, but Watford have been in terrible form for much of this season and United are unbeaten in their last 7 league games, having won 4 of them. In terms of corners corners cards it’s not a game I want to get too involved with. I expect United to run out pretty convincing winners, even as Ralf Rangnick most likely rotates his squad to give some players a rest ahead of what is a very tough and important run of games coming up for Man United, as they go away to Man City, before hosting Spurs , they then have the 2nd leg of their Champions League tie against Atletico Madrid, before they visit Liverpool and then host Leicester, so this next month is going to be crucial for Man United as they look to have a run in The Champions League and secure a top 4 spot. I see United gaining confidence with a routine win here as they put Watford to the sword.

4-0 Man United correct score – 14/1 bet365 (1 point)

Man United to score 3+ goals – 5/4 Skybet (3 points)

 

Everton vs Man City

 

Everton

Scored – 28

Conceded – 40

Both teams scored – 13/23

Home games both teams scored – 6/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/11

Corners –  4.22

Corners per home game – 5.27

Yellow cards – 2.09

Yellow cards per home game – 2.18

 

Man City

Scored – 63

Conceded – 17

Both teams scored – 9/26

Away games both teams scored – 6/13

over 2.5 goals – 14/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 8.81

Corners per Away game – 8.54

Yellow cards – 1.23

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.46

Everton have lost 6 of their last 8 league games, and will be concerned that those 6 games were hardly against the top teams in the league as they have lost to Southampton, Villa Newcastle, Norwich, Brighton and Palace, so new boss Frank Lampard knows he has his work cut out, though he will be hopeful that new arrivals in January like Dele Alli and Donny Van De Beek will both help his side press on. City lost in remarkable fashion last time out as they were beaten 3-2 by Spurs at home, where after Mahrez scored a 92nd minute penalty they looked set for a point, but Harry Kane scored a winner for Spurs in the 95th Minute. City won the reverse fixture in a canter by a 3-0 scoreline. City have won won last 9 head to head meetings by a 26-5 aggregate score, and the last 3 head to head meetings have all seen City win without conceding a goal. Coming off a loss some people may doubt City, and I expect Everton to pose a problem, especially early on as they will surely start at a high intensity. Should City score an early goal though it will settle them down and I think City will look to go a couple of goals up as quickly as possible to remove the sting from the game. We often see City start fast and I don’t think this game will be any different. City corners is a possible betting angle as well as their goals, but cards is not an angle I am going to look to get involved with. If it stays level or there is only 1 goal in it then we could see bookings, but many City games can often have all the sting and bite removed as they go into a 2-0 or 3-0 lead, and these games rarely produce many cards. I expect a routine win for City as Everton yet again come up short.

City to win 4-0 – 12/1 bet365 (1 point)

City to score 3+ goals – 11/10 Skybet (3 points)

8+ Man City corners – 4/5 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray