Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 23rd April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Arsenal vs Man United

Arsenal

Scored – 49

Conceded – 39

Both teams scored – 12/32

Home games both teams scored – 7/16

over 2.5 goals – 17/32

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/16

Corners – 5.31

Corners per home game – 6.63

Yellow cards – 1.63

Yellow cards per home game – 1.81

 

Man United

Scored – 52

Conceded – 48

Both teams scored – 20/33

Away games both teams scored – 11/16

over 2.5 goals – 16/33

Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/16

Corners – 5.24

Corners per Away game – 5.19

Yellow cards – 2

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.25

Arsenal come here on the back of a huge win in their last game, where they beat Chelsea 4-2 away from home. Before that they had lost 3 premier league games in a row to Palace, Brighton and Southampton. They sit in 5th place, level on points with Spurs who are above them in 4th on goal difference. Man United sit 3 points behind Arsenal and Spurs, having played a game more than both sides above them. United come here having lost 2 of  their last 3 league games, as they were beaten 1-0 by Everton and 4-0 by Liverpool in their last game. The news became official in midweek that current Ajax boss Erik Ten Hag will be taking over the reigns at Old Trafford from next season, and from the performances this season it is clear that he has his work cut out. United won 3-2 when the sides met earlier this season thanks to a brace from Cristiano Ronaldo, and I feel we could see a similarly high scoring game here. United know that they are going to need to score goals to win games as defensively they are a mess, and as we saw in their last game Arsenal will be happy to get involved in a game like that. This looks like a very good game for bets across the board, I feel we should see plenty of goals, corners and cards. The result is tough to call,as Arsenal are not the most consistent side and the kind of side and form that United are in, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose 4-0, but they also have the class and quality to score 4 or 5 goals themselves. United are the ones who really need the win, their Champions League qualification hopes are thin right now but there is the possibility they may miss the Europa league as well, which even though they are going to be going into a rebuild under a new manager, would be a terrible end to the season.The last time Man United were thumped by Liverpool earlier in this season, they came away to London to play Spurs and won 3-0, so I do expect a response from the United players. I feel there may be a bit of value in taking United to come out on top in a similar game to when they met earlier this season, but whatever  the result, this should be an entertaining game to watch with plenty of action for bets.

Man United to win 3-2- 33/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 match booking points – 11/8 Skybet (3 points)

 

Leicester vs Aston Villa

 

Leicester

Scored – 47

Conceded – 51

Both teams scored – 21/31

Home games both teams scored – 8/15

over 2.5 goals – 19/31

Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/15

Corners – 4.94

Corners per home game – 4.47

Yellow cards – 1.39

Yellow cards per home game – 1.07

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 42

Conceded – 46

Both teams scored – 15/31

Away games both teams scored – 7/16

over 2.5 goals – 19/31

Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/16

Corners – 5.35

Corners per Away game – 5.88

Yellow cards – 2.23

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.63

Leicester come here having conceded a late equalizer away at Everton in their last league game. They are focusing on their Europa Conference League campaign and therefor can approach their league games with an element of freedom. That has been obvious in recent games as all of the last 5 Leicester league games have had both teams score. Villa have lost their last 4 league games in a row, and whilst it’s still unlikely that they get drawn into an real relegation trouble this last in the season, they will want to recover and end the season with some better results. 8 of the last 10 head to head meetings between these sides in all competitions have had both teams score, and we should see goals here. Both sides are proud clubs so will want to win, but I also feel we will see quite an open and attacking game with both sides going for the win. It should be quite an even game with both sides getting opportunities. 8 of the last 10 head to head meetings have either ended in a draw or been decided by just 1 goal either way, so we should see a close game. Goals and corners are both solid angles, I feel we should see a few cards but bookings is not an angle where I am going to push the bets too much. Leicester have the first leg of Their Europa Conference League semi-final against Roma on Thursday, so they will not want any knocks or injuries going into that game. I feel we see a close game where Villa just come out on top and recover from a recent poor run of form.

Aston Villa to win 2-1 – 10/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 10+ booking points each team – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 9/4 Skybet (2 points)

Man City vs Watford

Man City

Scored – 75

Conceded – 20

Both teams scored – 11/32

Home games both teams scored – 5/16

over 2.5 goals – 17/32

Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/16

Corners – 8.34

Corners per home game – 8.63

Yellow cards – 1.13

Yellow cards per home game – 0.88

 

Watford

Scored – 30

Conceded – 62

Both teams scored – 15/32

Away games both teams scored – 6/16

over 2.5 goals – 17/32

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/16

Corners – 4.25

Corners per Away game – 4.13

Yellow cards – 1.81

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.56

Man City beat Brighton 3-0 in their last league game to move back to the top of the table, 1 point ahead of Liverpool. Watford sit 7 points from safety and whilst mathematically they are not at the must win  stage yet, they are in critical need of points. Unfortunately it’s highly unlikely they leave here with anything,as City know they cannot afford to drop points in the title race and even if they rotate their squad they will have far too much class for this Watford side. City have the first leg of their Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid on Tuesday next week, but Pep Guardioa and his teams are not a complacent bunch, so they will be fully focused on this game. I feel they could run up quite a score on Watford here. It took them a while to get going against Brighton in their last game but when they did they scored 3 goals in half an hour and were always in control. Corners and cards is not an angle that I am very excited about in this game. Corners will almost completely rely on City as I don’t see Watford contributing many, and I don’t see a lot of cards in this game as City will control possession and could easily go a couple of goals up early and then the game could become quite slow. I see a routine win for City as Watford continue on their path towards the Championship.

Man City to score 4+ goals – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

Man City to win 7-0 – 60/1 Paddy Power (1 point)

 

Norwich vs Newcastle

Norwich

Scored – 22

Conceded – 66

Both teams scored – 13/32

Home games both teams scored – 8/16

over 2.5 goals – 19/32

Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/16

Corners – 4.47

Corners per home game – 5.38

Yellow cards – 1.53

Yellow cards per home game – 1.56

 

Newcastle

Scored – 37

Conceded – 55

Both teams scored – 20/33

Away games both teams scored – 9/16

over 2.5 goals – 15/33

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/16

Corners – 4.27

Corners per Away game – 4.75

Yellow cards – 2.21

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.50

Norwich sit bottom of the Premier League table, 8 points from safety and will surely have this marked as a must win game if they are to have any chance of staying up. Newcastle could potentially move into the top half of the table with a win here, and whilst the money they spent in January is an obvious reason for their improvement, the club will be looking forward to a new season where they can aim a lot higher than recent years. When these sides met earlier in the season there was a much different feel to the game, as both sides looked destined to be in relegation trouble at this stage of the season. Newcastle received a red card after just 9 minutes in that game, but they took the lead thanks to a Callum Wilson penalty, before Teemu Pukki equalized late on for Norwich. I feel this could be quite a good game to watch, Norwich are sure to go for the win and with the form that Newcastle are in they will see this as a game that they should win. Norwich did beat Burnley in their last home game, so they will be hopeful that they can pull out a result here. I think there is a good chance that both sides score here, but I find it hard to pick a winner. On form it obviously has to be Newcastle, but at home especially, Norwich will not just roll over. I can see both teams having opportunities and the game ending in a score draw. Corners and cards are both good angles as well. I see this being a game that is evenly matched for large periods with both sides having times where they can dominate and keep the other side camped back. I can see this ending in a 2-2 draw as Norwich press for the winner but just fall short.

2-2 draw correct score – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corners each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 11/2 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (2 points)

 

Brentford vs Spurs

Brentford

Scored – 41

Conceded – 49

Both teams scored – 18/33

Home games both teams scored – 7/16

over 2.5 goals – 18/32

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/16

Corners – 3.94

Corners per home game – 4.31

Yellow cards – 1.70

Yellow cards per home game – 1.56

 

Spurs

Scored – 56

Conceded – 38

Both teams scored – 12/32

Away games both teams scored – 6/16

over 2.5 goals – 19/32

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/16

Corners – 5.06

Corners per Away game – 4.63

Yellow cards – 1.84

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.94

Brentford sit in 12th spot at the time of writing, and if they could end the season strong their is a chance they could end the season in the top half of the table. Spurs are in 4th spot right now, level on points with Arsenal and 3 points ahead of Man United, they will be desperate for a win here as they still have a couple of tricky looking games left on paper where it’s easy to see them dropping points. Spurs won 2-0 when the sides met earlier this season, in a game that had 15 corners  with 10 for Spurs and 5 for Brentford, and no yellow cards. I feel we are in for a similar game here. At home Brentford will fancy their chances of getting on the score sheet, but I see this being a relatively low scoring game where Spurs just come out on top. Corners are the other angle that I will involve in some bets, but cards is an area I would avoid in this game.  It’s not a game that screams bad blood, and with christian Eriksen taking on his former club, I feel at times this may have the feel of a friendly type of game. Spurs need the points so they definitely will not be approaching it in that way, but my gut feeling is this is not a game that is going to be the type to deliver a lot of cards. It’s a game that will be good to match, mainly as it could be crucial in the race for top 4, but it is a game that I feel could be quite slow and methodical at times, as Spurs just edge out Brentford to stay on track for Champions League qualification.

Spurs to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 2/1 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 7/2 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray