Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 19th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

West Ham vs Newcastle

 

West Ham

Scored – 44

Conceded – 33

Both teams scored – 16/25

Home games both teams scored – 9/12

over 2.5 goals – 15/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/12

Corners – 5.60

Corners per home game – 6

Yellow cards – 1.32

Yellow cards per home game – 1.25

 

Newcastle

Scored – 25

Conceded – 44

Both teams scored – 15/23

Away games both teams scored – 6/10

over 2.5 goals – 11/23

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/10

Corners – 4.39

Corners per Away game – 4.60

Yellow cards – 2.43

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.80

West Ham sit 5th in the league table, but the 3 sides directly below them all have multiple games in hand and could overtake them should those games in hand go well. Xo whilst it looks like West Ham are in a very strong position, they could soon find themselves closer to mid-table  than the top 4. Newcastle’s January signings are paying off as they have won their last 3 league games against Leeds, Everton and Aston Villa, to move them 4 points above Norwich who currently occupy the last relegation spot. West Ham won 4-2 away at St James Park when these sides met earlier this season in a very entertaining game, and historically matches between these sides have tended to be very good games to watch, especially in recent times. The last 5 head to head meetings in The Premier League have ended with two 3-2 wins for Newcastle, a 2-0 win for Newcastle, a 2-2 draw and the 4-2 win for West Ham last time out. So in those last 5 meetings that is 22 goals, 12 for Newcastle and 10 for West Ham. So when we add that to the fact that 75% of West Ham home league games have had both teams score this season and 60% of Newcastle away league games have had both teams score, all the stats and trends point to another entertaining game here. The obvious place to start is goals and there looks a very good chance that we see both teams score here. West Ham will be the favorites with most people and on the season as a whole that’s fair, but this is a different Newcastle side to the one that started the season, and their win over Aston Villa in particular was an impressive one and I feel like Newcastle can get something from this game. I see this game becoming very open and stretched at times, and both teams should have plenty of attacking opportunities. I can see this game ending in a 2-2 draw, though in truth I would not be surprised to see either team pinch a win. The one thing I am very confident of is that we should see goals here. The corner stats look promising, with West Ham averaging over 5 corners a game pretty much all season. Whilst Newcastle are a little bit lower in the averages, they have taken 16 corners in their last 3 league games. The card statistics is where it becomes a little bit complicated, as Newcastle have been on the high end of cards all season, but The Hammers have been on the low end. As I pointed out earlier I do see this game becoming very stretched and open at times, this will suit card bets as we should see both sides counter attacking which usually leads to cards as the game wears on with fatigue creeping in and players committing fouls to break up counter attacks, so I do see at least both sides picking up a card. This could be one of the best games of the weekend, and I can see it ending in a 2-2 draw where both sides have the chance to steal it but can’t find the winning goal.

2-2 correct score – 16/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 booking points – 13/8 Skybet (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 13/2 Skybet (1 point)

Arsenal vs Brentford

 

Arsenal

Scored – 34

Conceded – 25

Both teams scored – 7/22

Home games both teams scored – 4/11

over 2.5 goals – 11/22

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/11

Corners – 5.27

Corners per home game – 6.64

Yellow cards – 1.73

Yellow cards per home game – 2.18

 

Brentford

Scored – 26

Conceded – 40

Both teams scored – 13/25

Away games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 13/25

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 3.84

Corners per Away game – 3.25

Yellow cards –  1.72

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.83

Arsenal managed to grind out a 1-0 win away at Wolves in their last league game and sit in 6th spot as they look to secure Champions League, but if not Europa League football for next season. Brentford had lost 5 league games in a row before they drew 0-0 with Crystal Palace in their last game. One of my mid season predictions was that Brentford would struggle in the second half of the season and I feel we are starting to see that already. Brentford beat Arsenal on the opening day of the season, but I feel it is unlikely that they do the double here. From a betting point of view this is one of the tougher games of the weekend, with corners and cards both being difficult to predict, mainly because we don’t know what Brentford will do in terms of their style of play. Brentford have shown at times this season that they can play expansive football and will get involved in end to end games, but at other times they sit deep and look to stay compact and be difficult to beat. I am pretty confident that they will allow Arsenal possession and look to play on the counter, so I feel this could turn into quite a slow game not played at much pace with a lot of side to side passing as Arsenal look for a chink in the Brentford armour. It’s not a game where I would be placing bet builders on goals, corners and cards, but I fancy Arsenal to get the win and feel they could return the favor by beating Brentford by the same scoreline Brentford beat them by on opening day, as Arsenal run out 2-0 winners.

2-0 Arsenal –  6/1 Betvictor (1 point)

Arsenal to win to nil – 6/5 Skybet (2 points)

Aston Villa vs Watford

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 31

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 13/23

Home games both teams scored – 8/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/11

Corners – 4.96

Corners per home game – 3.91

Yellow cards – 2.22

Yellow cards per home game – 1.82

 

Watford

Scored – 23

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 11/23

Away games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 11/23

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/11

Corners – 4.52

Corners per Away game – 4.55

Yellow cards – 1.91

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.64

Villa lost to Newcastle in their last game and have now won just 1 of their last 6 league games. Watford are without a win in their last 11 league games and they lost 2-0 to Brighton in their last game. Watford sit second from bottom and have a real scrap on their hands to stay in the division. Villa sit in 12th and will be targeting a top half finish. Watford have failed to score in their last 4 league games, which instantly puts you off backing both teams to score as whilst Villa are not the best defensive side, they have the quality to keep out an our of form Watford side. Corners and cards both look like good potential bets with both teams similar in terms of their stats for the season. In terms of the result I fancy Villa to score 2 or 3 goals here and get back on track with a home win. Steven Gerrard had a very good start to his time at the club but has gone off the boil in the last few games, having gone out of the FA Cup already. Villa only have the league left to focus on and will be desperate food a top half finish before they look to strengthen in the transfer window and push on next season. Watford are one of the sides I see going down this season and I feel they come up short here against Villa who are ultimately the better side.

Villa to win 3-0 – 13/1 Betvictor (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 booking points – 13/8 Skybet (2 points)

Brighton vs Burnley

 

Brighton

Scored – 25

Conceded – 25

Both teams scored – 13/24

Home games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 5/24

Home games over 2.5 goals – 2/11

Corners – 5.25

Corners per home game – 5.91

Yellow cards – 1.88

Yellow cards per home game – 1.73

 

Burnley

Scored – 17

Conceded – 29

Both teams scored – 11/21

Away games both teams scored – 6/11

over 2.5 goals – 8/21

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/11

Corners – 4.38

Corners per Away game – 3.55

Yellow cards – 1.90

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.73

9th place Brighton host the bottom club Burnley with both sides coming off defeats in their last league games. Brighton lost 2-0 away at Man United where they had Lewis Dunk sent off. Burnley were beaten 1-0 by Liverpool in a game where they will feel they could have got something. Brighton won 2-1 when the sides met earlier this season are the seagulls are undefeated in their last 5 head to head meetings with Sean Dyche’s men. 5  of  the last 6 head to head meetings have seen both teams score, and games between these two sides are usually close with only 1 of the last 14 meetings being decided by more than 1 goal either way. In fact 8 of the last 12 head to head meetings in all competitions have ended in a draw, and I would not be surprised at all to see that happen here. Having already lost Burn to Newcastle, being without Lewis Dunk will be a blow for Brighton as they take on a physical Burnley side who love to get balls into the box. I can see both teams scoring in this game as they play out a 1-1 draw. I think Burnley will have to hang in at times and Brighton will build pressure and have more possession, but we have already seen Brighton struggle to break teams down this season, and whilst on some occasions they managed to find a late goal, Sean Dyche will have his side well drilled to deal with the threat Brighton possess. Both teams  are quite similar in corners and cards so they both look good angles for bets. I actually feel this could be quite a good game to watch as it is sure to be physical with neither giving an inch, and I see it ending in a 1-1 draw.

The match to be a draw – 29/10 Skybet (2 points)

1-1 correct score – 7/1 Mansion Bet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

 

Crystal Palace

Scored – 32

Conceded – 35

Both teams scored –  13/24

Home games both teams scored – 8/12

over 2.5 goals – 14/24

Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/12

Corners – 4.58

Corners per home game – 5.25

Yellow cards – 1.83

Yellow cards per home game – 2

 

Chelsea

Scored – 48

Conceded – 18

Both teams scored – 12/24

Away games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 12/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 6.54

Corners per Away game – 5.42

Yellow cards – 1.63

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.67

Palace are now without a win their last 5 league games, and will be disappointed at having drawn their last 2 games against Brentford and Norwich. They take on 3rd place Chelsea who’s attention has shifted from challenging to the tile to making sure they stay in the top 4, as they find themselves 16 points off the top of the table, and only 6 points ahead of 5th place West Ham. Chelsea haven’t played a league game for nearly a month as they have been off at the Club World Cup where in truth they were pretty disappointing, despite winning the trophy, as they needed an extra time penalty to get past Palmeiras in the final. Chelsea have won all of the last 8 head to head meetings, by an aggregate score of 22-5, and they have scored at least 3 goals in all of the last 4 head to heads. So in recent form this is a fixture that Chelsea have dominated, and whilst former Arsenal captain Patrick Viera being in the Palace dugout adds a little bit of extra spice to the game, it’s still a fixture that I see Chelsea winning. I can see Palace scoring and causing Chelsea problems, plus they will hope that their opponents exploits at The Club World Cup may play a part, but Chelsea have the squad depth and experience to get past Palace here. I see Chelsea winning 3-1 and would not be surprised to see a very even game where Chelsea are 2-1 up, before they then pick Palace off on the counter as the home side press for an equalizer. Corners looks a good bet as Palace’s small and compact ground can lead to their home games having a lot of corners, and Chelsea are always high up on the corner averages. The stats don’t suggest this is a game to go crazy on cards, but I expect a good atmosphere here and with both sides being good on the counter, it is easy to see the referee taking a few names. This should be a good game to watch and I expect Chelsea to win 3-1.

3 -1 Chelsea – 16/1 Smarkets (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 booking points – 13/8 Skybet (2 points)

Liverpool vs Norwich

 

Liverpool

Scored – 61

Conceded – 19

Both teams scored – 10/24

Home games both teams scored – 4/11

over 2.5 goals – 17/24

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/11

Corners – 7.88

Corners per home game – 7.85

Yellow cards – 1.29

Yellow cards per home game – 1.18

 

Norwich

Scored – 14

Conceded – 50

Both teams scored – 8/24

Away games both teams scored – 2/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 4.50

Corners per Away game – 3.27

Yellow cards – 1.71

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.73

Liverpool have won their last 4 league games, conceding just 1 goal in the process, and are coming off a huge win away at Inter Milan in the first leg of their Champions League last 16 tie in midweek. Norwich lost 4-0 to Man City in their last league game, but before that they are unbeaten in their last 3 as they beat Watford and Everton before drawing with Crystal Palace. So Norwich are building in the right direction, but much like the City game last time out, I see them getting outclassed here. Liverpool are unbeaten in the last 16 head to head meetings, winning 14 of those. The last two meetings between the sides have both been won 3-0 by Liverpool, one was in the league and the other the league cup. The main areas to focus bets on here are Liverpool goals and Lverpool corners, as I see them dominating this game. Cards is not an angle I would look to play at all here, as should Liverpool score a couple of early goals then the sting will be completely removed from the game as they can just pass it around and try to break Norwich down whenever they want. I see Liverpool scoring 4 or 5 goals here and would not be surprised if they hit double digits in corners on their own, in what will likely be the most one sided Premier League game of this weekend.

Liverpool to win 5-0 – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Liverpool to score 4+ goals – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

 

10+ Liverpool corners – 2/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Southampton vs Everton

 

Southampton

Scored – 30

Conceded – 37

Both teams scored – 16/24

Home games both teams scored – 7/11

over 2.5 goals – 13/24

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/11

Corners – 5.75

Corners per home game – 5.36

Yellow cards – 2

Yellow cards per home game – 2

 

Everton

Scored – 28

Conceded – 38

Both teams scored – 13/22

Away games both teams scored – 7/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/11

Corners – 4.23

Corners per Away game – 3.18

Yellow cards – 2.09

Yellow cards per Away game – 2

Southampton drew with Man United in their last league game and have been in pretty good form in their last 3 league games as they drew with Man City and Man United, and beat Spurs 3-2. They currently sit in 10th spot and will be looking to finish in the top half this season. Everton had a big 3-0 win against Leeds in their last league game and will now be looking to put some distance between themselves and the relegation fight below them. Everton have 2 games in hand on Southampton and are only 7 points behind them, so a win here would move the Toffee’s to 4 points behind the Saints with 2 games in hand, which gives you an idea of just how congested things are in the bottom half of the table. Everton won 3-1 when the sides met earlier this season. 8 of the last 10 head to head meetings have seen both teams score, so there is reason to be hopeful that this may be an entertaining game to watch. From looking at the stats there is a decent chance both teams will score, the head to head form is strong and 7 out of 11 Saints home games this season have had both teams score, and 7 out of 11 Everton away games have had both teams score. Southampton have the stronger recent form but I really don’t think there is much between these two sides and feel we could see a score draw. The stats suggest that Southampton will be taking the lead with corners, as they average over 2 corners per game more at home, than Everton do away from home. Both sides are pretty high on the booking point averages and the fact this promises to be an evenly matched game should lead to a few bookings. I see this being a close and hard fought game where neither side can find the winning goal and it ends 1-1.

1-1 correct score – 7/1 betvictor (1 point)

The match to be a draw – 13/5 Skybet (2 points)

20+ booking points each team – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

 

Man City vs Spurs

 

Man City

Scored – 61

Conceded – 14

Both teams scored – 8/25

Home games both teams scored – 2/12

over 2.5 goals – 13/25

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 8.76

Corners per home game – 9

Yellow cards – 1.28

Yellow cards per home game – 1.08

 

Spurs

Scored – 28

Conceded – 29

Both teams scored – 8/22

Away games both teams scored – 4/10

over 2.5 goals – 12/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/10

Corners – 5.55

Corners per Away game – 5

Yellow cards – 1.86

Yellow cards per Away game – 2

City have won 13 of their last 14 league games, the only blip coming in a draw against Southampton, but since then they have beaten Brentford, put 4 past Norwich and then went one better than that as they put 5 past Sporting in the Champions League in midweek to all but end their 2 lagged tie at the halfway stage. Spurs lost at home to Wolves in their last league game and have now lost their last 3 league games in a row. Spurs actually won the reverse fixture 1-0 on the opening day of the season, but that seems a long time ago now as Spurs have a new manager and City find themselves 9 points clear at the top of the table. Spurs have actually won 3 of the last 5 head to head meetings, both came in the league in 2020 and both games finished 22-0 to Spurs, so on recent form between the sides you would have to give Spurs a chance. On their recent form though, it is impossible to get away from City, Spurs have lost 3 in a row with City looking unstoppable as they charge towards another Premier League trophy. Only 2 of the last 10 meetings between the sides have seen both teams score, and none of the last 5 have ended with both teams scoring. Right now I don’t feel you can trust Spurs to score, especially taking on the best defense in the league, I see City compounding more misery on Spurs here as they run out convincing winners. Corners looks a good bet, but I would not be banking on Spurs matching their corner average as they could easily find their attacking opportunities limited as City dominate possession. Whilst this is a game that can easily produce cards, I don’t feel it’s the type of game where you want to go crazy on bookings. Games involving City can become quite slow as they keep the ball and move their opponent side to side. Spurs will sit deep and leave no space in behind, which is not what you want if you are backing cards here. Goals and corners are the angles to focus on with City leading in both as they run out 3 or 4-0 winners.

4-0 City – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 5/6 Skybet (3 points)

City to score 3+ goals – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

10+ Man City corners – 2/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray