Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th March

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

 

Aston Villa

Scored – 41

Conceded – 39

Both teams scored – 14/28

Home games both teams scored – 8/13

over 2.5 goals – 17/28

Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/13

Corners – 5.07

Corners per home game – 4.38

Yellow cards – 2.18

Yellow cards per home game – 1.69

 

Arsenal

Scored – 43

Conceded – 31

Both teams scored – 10/27

Away games both teams scored – 4/12

over 2.5 goals – 14/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 5.30

Corners per Away game – 4

Yellow cards – 1.56

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.33

Villa had their 3 game winning run in the league ended last time out as they lost 2-1 away to West Ham. Arsenal also had an unbeaten run ended last time out as their 5 game winning streak was broken by Liverpool who beat them 2-0 at the Emirates. Arsenal won 3-1 when the sides met earlier this season in a game that had 11 corners and 7 yellow cards. Villa have won 3 of the last 4 head to head meetings with Arsenal. This should be a good game with Villa able to play with freedom in the back end of the season as the best they could achieve this season now is a top half finish.Arsenal know that they cannot afford to drop points with the battle for top 4 really heating up now. I feel there is a good chance that both sides will score in this game, but I am finding the result difficult to call. Arsenal have been the more consistent side but Villa especially at home are not the type of side to lie down without a fight, so I feel we could see a hard fought game that ends in a score draw. Corners look a good angle for bets with both sides consistently averaging 4 or 5 corners a game all season. Arsenal are a bit low in the booking averages to consider cards a banker, but there were lots of bookings when these sides met earlier this season and it’s the type of game where you wouldn’t be surprised if there was a bit of needle from both sides. I see this being an entertaining and very good game for bets, and feel we could see an entertaining 2-2 draw.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 7/1 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

3+corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 10/11 Skybet (3 points)

Leicester vs Brentford

 

Leicester

Scored – 40

Conceded – 45

Both teams scored – 16/26

Home games both teams scored – 6/13

over 2.5 goals – 16/26

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/13

Corners – 5.15

Corners per home game – 4.77

Yellow cards – 1.38

Yellow cards per home game – 1.08

 

Brentford

Scored – 32

Conceded – 45

Both teams scored – 15/29

Away games both teams scored – 8/14

over 2.5 goals – 15/29

Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/14

Corners – 3.76

Corners per Away game – 3.14

Yellow cards – 1.83

Yellow cards per Away game – 2

Leicester have won 2 of their last 3 league games, beating Leeds and Burnley, but they lost their last league games against Arsenal. Brentford have won their last two league games, beating Norwich and Burnley. Brentford are only 3 points below Leicester so could go level on points with them with a win here today. Leicester won 2-1 when the sides met earlier this season. Leicester will be pretty disappointed with how their league campaign has gone this season, and The Europa Conference League looks to be their only opportunity to end the season on a high. These last couple of games have been huge for Brentford as the 6 points they have collected from their last couple of outings have moved them 8 points clear of the relegation spaces. This is not a game that I am overly excited about from a betting perspective. I favor Leicester to get the win, but it is not a massively strong opinion that I would be looking to back heavily. Brentford will be happy with how their season has gone so far as survival would always have been the goal, and I feel that they would be more than happy with a point here. I see this being quite a low scoring game where Leicester just edge out their opponents. The stats on corners and cards are not really anything to get too excited about either. I don’t see this being a game for big bets as Leicester are inconsistent and Brentford are solid but unspectacular, but I feel there is a chance that we see Leicester come out on top in a low scoring and at times low quality affair.

Leicester to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

Spurs vs West Ham

 

Spurs

Scored – 44

Conceded – 35

Both teams scored – 10/28

Home games both teams scored – 4/13

over 2.5 goals – 16/28

Home games over 2.5 goals -9/13

Corners – 5.29

Corners per home game – 5.92

Yellow cards – 1.82

Yellow cards per home game – 1.77

 

West Ham

Scored – 48

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 18/29

Away games both teams scored – 7/14

over 2.5 goals – 16/29

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/14

Corners – 5.41

Corners per Away game – 5.29

Yellow cards – 1.34

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.36

Spurs come here having won 3 of their  last 4 league games as they beat Leeds, Everton and Brighton last time out. West Ham had  a huge result in midweek where they beat Sevilla in The Europa League. They have won 2 of their last 3 league games, beating Wolves and Villa, either side of a 1-0 loss to Liverpool. These sides are level on 48 points, with Spurs having a game in hand. Both sides will know how important this game could be in terms of who gets European football next season and who misses out. No one will need to tell West Ham how much it means to play European football given the night they had against Sevilla in mid week. Spurs may feel that this game being played just days after that could favor them, as West Ham will surely have some sore legs and a possible hangover from that game. West Ham won 1-0 when the sides met earlier this season, and will be desperate to do the double over their local rivals. The head to head form recently has been very even between these sides, with only 1 of the last 7 meetings in all competitions being decided by more than 1 goal. I see this game being similar to those, in the way that it’s difficult to split these two sides. Only 1 of Spurs last 7 games in all competitions have been home games, so they will be happy to be back at home in front of their home fans. The midfield battle in this game could be crucial, with Declan Rice for West Ham and Piere Hojbjerg for Spurs both being the leaders in the middle of the park for their sides. Both teams have quality attacking players who will take chances, and I feel stopping that at source by winning the midfield battle will be very high on both sides agenda. I am leaning slightly towards Spurs, as I feel with home advantage and the fact that West Ham went to extra time with Sevilla on Thursday meaning they should be the fresher side, despite only playing on Wednesday themselves. Corners look a very good betting angle, and it’s the type of game where you expect to see a few cards. I see this being an even game for long periods, but feel that Spurs will take control as the game goes on and I expect them to just come out on top in a hard fought game.

Spurs to win 2-1 – 8/1 Bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 match booking points – 6/5 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray