Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 12th March

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Brighton vs Liverpool

 

Brighton

Scored – 26

Conceded – 32

Both teams scored – 14/27

Home games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals – 7/27

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/13

Corners – 5.33

Corners per home game – 5.85

Yellow cards – 1.89

Yellow cards per home game – 1.85

 

Liverpool

Scored – 71

Conceded – 20

Both teams scored – 11/27

Away games both teams scored – 6/13

over 2.5 goals – 19/27

Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/13

Corners – 7.59

Corners per Away game – 7.85

Yellow cards – 1.22

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.38

Newcastle come here having lost their last 4 league games in a row, against Man United, Burnley, Villa and Newcastle. This will be a worry for the Seagulls as they now enter a tough run of games which sees them play Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs twice in their next 5 games. Liverpool sit 6 points behind league leaders Man City with a game in hand, and they will be desperate to keep that gap at 3 points or lower so that they only need 1 slip up from City to get back on level terms. Liverpool have won their last 7 league games in a row, though they did lose at home 1-0 to Inter Milan in their last game, but with a 2-0 lead from the first leg they still progressed to the Quarter Finals of The Champions League. Brighton are actually unbeaten in their last 3 games against Liverpool, as they drew 1-1 with them at home last season before they capitalized on an out of form Liverpool side to win 1-0 away at Anfield last season. The meeting earlier this season ended in a 2-2 draw. Unfortunately for Brighton I see this streak coming to an end today. Brighton have lost their form these last few games, and the last side they would want to be playing now is an in-form Liverpool side. They conceded 2 goals against VillaMan United and Newcastle, plus 3 against Burnley, so the Liverpool attackers will be eyeing up some goals this afternoon. Goals and corners are the angles I feel you should focus on for bets here. On current form it would be no surprise to see Liverpool score 3 or more goals today. I would expect Liverpool to take the lead in corners, but Brighton also should contribute there as I do think they will have their moments where they cause Liverpool problems. I think this could be a pretty routine win for Liverpool today, as the tables have completely switched fro. When Brighton beat them 1-0 last season, at that stage Liverpool were struggling for form and all over the place and Brighton were flying high. Today with roles reversed it could be a long afternoon for Graham Potter’s side.

Liverpool to score 3+ goals – 13/8 Skybet (2 points)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 1/1 Skybet (2 points)

Brentford vs Burnley

 

Brentford

Scored – 30

Conceded – 45

Both teams scored – 15/28

Home games both teams scored – 7/14

over 2.5 goals – 15/28

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/14

Corners – 3.82

Corners per home game – 4.50

Yellow cards – 1.86

Yellow cards per home game – 1.71

 

Burnley

Scored – 22

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 12/26

Away games both teams scored – 7/13

over 2.5 goals – 10/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/13

Corners – 4.38

Corners per Away game – 3.62

Yellow cards – 1.88

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.92 

Brentford snapped an 8 game winless run in the league in their last game as they beat Norwich 3-1. Thomas Frank’s side sit in 15th spot at the time of writing, 6 points ahead of today’s opponents Burnley, but Burnley do have 2 games in hand on The Bee’s. Sedan Dyches side occupy the last relegation spot in 18th place, and come here having lost their last two league games after they were beaten 2-0 by Leicester and 4-0 by Chelsea last time out. Burnley won 3-1 when the sides met earlier in the season, and Burnley will be desperate for another win here would could see them climb out of the relegation places. I don’t know why but I feel like of all the sides in real relegation trouble, there is a sense of calm at Burnley. Their players have been in situations like this before, and they are one of those sides who always seem to pop up with a few results here and there. I was a bit surprised that Brentford beat Norwich last time out. Brentford have been struggling for form and I have felt for the last few weeks that they would be dragged deeper into a relegation fight. Even after beating Norwich a loss here would be very bad news for Brentford. You look at the sides around them who are also fighting relegation, Newcastle have turned a massive corner thanks to January signings and look to be safe, Everton also brought players in January and have more than enough quality to stay in the league, Leeds have the quality and with players returning from injury they will feel they can start picking up some results, and then Burnley have been here before and done it. Norwich and Watford look like the two sides in most trouble but someone has to join them, and I still feel there is a good chance Brentford could go down. When the sides met earlier this season Burnley took complete control of the game as they scored 3 first half goals, I don’t see it being that easy this time, especially with Brentford having home advantage, but I fancy Burnley to get the result in a low scoring game. Corners look a pretty safe bet as both sides will get chances to get forward and attack, neither one of these sides is good enough to dominate possession and territory against the other. I feel cards could be the best angle though. There were only 2 yellows when the sides played earlier this season, but that game was over after almost 30 minutes as Burnley were 3-0 up. I don’t see this  game going the same way and with Leeds playing Norwich on Sunday, both sides will know this could be a huge weekend in the relegation battle. I see Burnley just coming out on top in a hard fought game where there are quite a few bookings.

Burnley to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 5/6 Skybet (3 points)

60+ match booking points – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

Man United vs Spurs

 

Man Utd

Scored – 45

Conceded – 38

Both teams scored – 17/28

Home games both teams scored – 6/14

over 2.5 goals – 13/28

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/14

Corners – 5.29

Corners per home game – 5.29

Yellow cards – 2.07

Yellow cards per home game – 1.86

 

Spurs

Scored – 40

Conceded – 32

Both teams scored – 9/26

Away games both teams scored – 5/13

over 2.5 goals – 15/26

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/13

Corners – 5.38

Corners per Away game – 4.85

Yellow cards – 1.85

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.92

United come here on the back of a humiliating 4-1 loss to Man City, where they were in the game for a long time and in the first half were the better team for a large portion. However, that counted for nothing as City went 3-1 up in the second half and then dominated the last 20 minutes of the game where many Man United players were accused of downing tools and giving up. There is no time for United to feel sorry for themselves as they have a crucial game in the race for top 4 here and then the second leg of their Champions League tie. Spurs come here in as usual, up and down form. Their last 5 games have seen them beat Man City away from home 3-2, to then lose to Burnley next time out, they then beat Leeds 4-0, then they were humiliated by Middlesbrough in the FA Cup as they were dumped  out 1-0 by The Championship Club, then in their last game they beat Everton 5-0. Whilst there have been some good performances and moments, ultimately it has been a frustrating time for Spurs fans as they are set to end another season with no trophy, and even finishing top 4 looks difficult as them, Arsenal, West Ham and Man United look set to have a real scrap for that 4th spot in what’s remaining of this season. United won 3-0 when the sides met earlier in the season, and they know how important a win is here. Spurs sit just 2 points behind United but have 2 games in hand, stretching that lead to 5 points would mean Spurs have to win both games in hand to go above United which would be huge. I expect to see a few goals in this game. United’s defense still needs a lot of work, and whilst Spurs have been inconsistent they have scored 12 goals in their last 4 league games, despite being held out by Burnley. At home United should be able to score as I don’t think Spurs have the defensive quality to keep out the likes of Ronaldo, Fernandes and Rashford for 90 minutes. Corners also look a solid bet from the stats with both sides consistently averaging over 5 corners per game. Cards would not be a huge shock. Both these sides know how important this game is and United will be desperate for a response after losing 4-1 to City. It’s interesting that when these sides met earlier this season, United were coming off a humiliating 5-0 defeat at home to Liverpool. We are in a similar situation here so it will be interesting if we see a response from United similar to last time. I see this being an entertaining game where both teams score, and feel United will come out on top with a 3-1 win.

Man United to win 3-1 – 16/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 11/2 Skybet (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 5/4 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

50+ match booking points – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray