Premier League stats and best bets – Saturday 12th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Man United vs Southampton

 

Man United

Scored – 37

Conceded – 31

Both teams scored – 14/23

Home games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 11/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/11

Corners – 5.52

Corners per home game – 5.36

Yellow cards – 2.04

Yellow cards per home game – 1.73

 

Southampton

Scored – 29

Conceded – 36

Both teams scored – 15/23

Away games both teams scored – 8/12

over 2.5 goals – 13/23

Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/12

Corners – 5.83

Corners per Away game – 6.25

Yellow cards – 2.09

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.17

United sit in 6th spot with Southampton in 10th. United drew away at Burnley in their last game whilst Southampton beat Spurs 3-2 away from home. United are unbeaten in the last 12 head to head meetings, though they did draw 1-1 when the sides met earlier in the season. This fixture last season was won 9-0 by Man United. Whilst United have not been getting beaten by The Saints in recent H2H matches, it is a fixture that has proven to be tough for United and it has normally produced entertaining games, with 6 of the last 7 H2H meetings having both teams score, and in those 6 games there have been two 3-2 wins for Man United and two 2-2 draws, so there are reasons to expect this to be an entertaining game to watch.All of the last 7 Southampton league games have had both teams score and 5 of the last 8 United league games have had both teams score, so I feel there is a good chance both teams score here. Corners and cards also both look to be very promising bets with both sides well over 5 corners per game on average and both averaging over 2 yellow cards per game this season. I see this being an entertaining game and feel we could be in for recent history repeating itself as United run out 3-2 or 3-1 winners in front of their home fans.

Ronaldo to have 1+ shot on target – 1/1 Skybet (This is a special bet, each person will have a different max stake they are allowed on this bet, but assuming Ronaldo starts the game then I recommend having whatever your max stake allowed is on this bet)

Both teams to score, 1+ corners each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 6/1 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 5/6 Skybet (3 points)

Man United to win 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 – 9/2 Skybet (1 point)

 

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

 

Brentford

Scored – 26

Conceded – 40

Both teams scored – 13/24

Home games both teams scored – 7/12

over 2.5 goals -13/24

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 3.88

Corners per home game – 4.50

Yellow cards – 1.75

Yellow cards per home game – 1.67

 

Crystal Palace

Scored – 32

Conceded – 35

Both teams scored – 13/23

Away games both teams scored – 5/11

over 2.5 goals – 14/23

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/11

Corners – 4.39

Corners per Away game – 3.45

Yellow cards – 1.91

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.82

Brentford were beaten 2-0 by Man City in their last game as Palace were held to a 1-1 draw away at Norwich. This is an interesting game as its 13th plays 14th, with both sides roughly around 8 points away from being dragged firmly into the relegation dogfight that looks set to take place below them in the table. I don’t see Palace being involved in that relegation fight though It would not surprise me at all to see Brentford become embroiled as the season grows. It ended 0-0 when these sides met early in the season, and it would be no surprise to see another draw here. This should be quite an even game, as I don’t think either side is good enough to completely dominate possession or territory against the other.Goals look a very tough market to call but I do feel there is a reason to be confident in corners and cards. Both sides will have opportunities in this game, Place took 6 corners in their last game away at Norwich, and Brentford have taken 15 corners in their last 3 league games, despite 2 of those games coming against Man United and Man City, so whilst the corner averages on the stats don’t exactly make corners a banker, I feel those stats are worth taking with a pinch of salt here. It’s the kind of game that can easily produce cards, with both sides having players who like to get involved in the physical aspect of the game, and both sides have shown this season they are happy to play the game and try to milk the referee into awarding them free kicks and bookings for the other team. I see this game ending in a 0-0 or 1-1 draw, in what will be a physical game of football.

The match to be a draw and under 2.5 goals in the match – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 1/1 Skybet (3 points)

 

Everton vs Leeds

 

Everton

Scored – 25

Conceded – 38

Both teams scored – 13/21

Home games both teams scored – 6/10

over 2.5 goals – 13/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/10

Corners – 4.19

Corners per home game – 5.30

Yellow cards – 2.14

Yellow cards per home game – 2.30

 

Leeds

Scored – 27

Conceded – 43

Both teams scored – 15/22

Away games both teams scored – 8/11

over 2.5 goals – 13/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/11

Corners – 4.86

Corners per Away game – 3.82

Yellow cards – 2.73

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.91

The meeting earlier this season ended 2-2, and 4 of the last 5 head to head meetings between these sides have seen both teams score. Add to that the fact we have Marcelo Bielsa taking on Frank Lampard in the dugouts, who have history after Bielsa was caught spying on Lampard and his training whilst the former Chelsea and Man City midfielder waas manager at Derby, and then Lampard’s Derby side would go on to knock Leeds out of the playoffs. Another huge factor in this game is that it is 15th plays 16th, with Leeds being 4 points ahead of Everton, though The Toffees do have a game in hand on Bielsa’s men. On paper this should be one of the most entertaining and enthralling games to watch this weekend. Lampard will be concerned that Everton have lost their last 4 league games, but he may be more concerned by the fact that those games were against Brighton, Norwich , Villa and Newcastle, who with the greatest of respect towards those clubs, are the type of games Everton would be expecting to win or at the very least draw. Famous last words but I really feel we could be in for a cracking game here, with both sides having so much to play for and both sets of fans sure to be in good voice.I feel there is a very good chance that both teams score and the stats also point to corners and cards both being promising as well. I see this being potentially the game of  the weekend, where I feel there is a good chance we could see these sides play out their second 2-2 draw of the season, but if I had to favor one of them then I would go with Everton, who I feel right now have the stronger squad and may just pinch it.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 30+ booking points each team – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

Both teams to score in both halves, 2+ corners each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 66/1 Skybet (1/2 point)

Draw 2-2 – 13/1 BetVictor (1 point)

70+ match booking points – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

Watford vs Brighton

 

Watford

Scored – 23

Conceded – 41

Both teams scored – 11/21

Home games both teams scored – 6/11

over 2.5 goals – 11/21

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/11

Corners – 4.55

Corners per home game – 4.55

Yellow cards – 1.86

Yellow cards per home game – 2.09

 

Brighton

Scored – 23

Conceded – 23

Both teams scored – 13/22

Away games both teams scored – 8/11

over 2.5 goals – 5/22

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/11

Corners – 5.41

Corners per Away game – 4.91

Yellow cards – 1.91

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.09

Watford are now without a win in their last 10 league games and they sit in 19th spot, with Burnley only below them by 1 point, but Burnley also have 2 games in hand. Brighton have played out three 1-1 draws in a row against Palace, Chelsea and Leicester. Brighton have seen both teams score in all of their last 5 league games, and their last 7 games in all competitions if you include their FA Cup games against West Brom and Spurs. Goals is a difficult market here as Watford have failed to score in their last 3 league games, but they have shown this season that they carry an attacking threat, at home taking on a Brighton side who have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 11 games in all competitions, it is probably worth chancing that they grab a goal. I see this being quite an even game, there is no doubt Brighton are the better side but time and time again this season they fail to take control of games, and whilst they have scored their fair share of late crucial goals, they cannot rely on that happening every week. Watford know how big this game is, these are the type of games they will really be targeting as good opportunities for points. The stats are both promising on corners and cards, so whilst on paper this may not be the most exciting game this weekend, I do feel it will be a good watch and a good game for a bet. I see both teams scoring, and feel the most likely result is either a 1-1 draw or Brighton to edge it 2-1.

Over 1.5 goals, 3+ corners each team and 30+ match booking points – 7/4 Skybet (2 points)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 10/11 Skybet (3 points)

Norwich vs Man City

 

Norwich

Scored – 14

Conceded – 46

Both teams scored – 8/23

Home games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals -13/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/12

Corners – 4.52

Corners per home game – 5.67

Yellow cards – 1.78

Yellow cards per home game – 1.83

 

Man City

Scored – 57

Conceded – 14

Both teams scored – 8/24 

Away games both teams scored – 6/12

over 2.5 goals – 12/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 8.63

Corners per Away game – 8.25

Yellow cards – 1.25

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.42

Norwich are now unbeaten in their last 4 games in all competitions, as they have beaten Everton and Watford in the league, Wolves in the FA Cup and they drew in their most recent game against Crystal Palace. They sit in 18th, one spot and one point below safety. City recovered from a minor blip by their standards where they drew with Southampton, as they beat Brentford last time out and they sit 9 points ahead of Liverpool in 2nd spot, though Liverpool do have a game in hand. Norwich have turned a corner, but even the most optimistic Norwich fans will have to feel they are highly unlikely to get anything from this game today. The only silver lining for Norwich is that City do have their Champions League last 16 tie against Sporting coming up next week,  so Dean Smith can hope that Pep Guardiola’s side may have one eye on that, but with the size of the City squad and competition for places, I personally don’t see it being a factor. I see City winning this without ever having to get out of second gear, and can easily see them putting 4 or 5 goals past Norwich. The last two head to head meetings were both won 5-0 by Man City, though back in 2019 Norwich did beat City 3-2, so there is a glimmer of hope for the Canaries. I don’t see it happening again though and feel City could make it three 5-0 wins in a row.

City to score 4+ goals – 7/4 Skybet (2 points)

10+ Man City corners – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray