Premier League stats and best bets – Boxing Day

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Burnley vs Everton

 

Burnley have played 15 games this season

Scored – 14

Conceded – 21

Both teams scored –  8/15

Home games both teams scored – 4/7

over 2.5 goals – 6/15

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/7

Corners – 4.60

Corners per home game – 6

Yellow cards – 2.27

Yellow cards per home game – 2.57

 

Everton have played 17 league games this season

Scored – 21

Conceded – 29

Both teams scored – 10/17

Away games both teams scored – 5/9

over 2.5 goals – 10/17

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/9 

Corners – 3.59 (league low)

Corners per Away game – 2.78 (league low)

Yellow cards – 2.06

Yellow cards per Away game – 2

Burnley held West Ham to a 0-0 draw in their last league game but still find themselves in the relegation zone. Everton held Chelsea to a 1-1 draw way at Stamford Bridge in their last league game and sit in 14th. I expect this to be a very close game with neither side having hit top form this season. The even nature of the game could make this a good game for bets though as although neither have been performing well, that should lead to both sides getting opportunities to get forward. Everton average a league low amount of corners but in this game I would take that statistic with a pinch of salt as they are sure to get attacking opportunities against this Burnley side. Cards look a good bet with both sides on the higher end of the card stats this season. I do feel there is a decent chance both sides could score, as Everton have the edge in quality of players and have players who can create and take goal scoring opportunities, but Burnley are always a threat at home especially from set pieces, and at time I can see them almost bullying this Everton defence. I feel we could easily see a 1-1 draw here with both sides having corners and getting players carded. So in some ways it’s a game where I am going against the stats, but I feel we will see a very even game, which should make it an interesting watch.

The match to be a draw – 9/4 bet365 (2 points)

Over 1.5 goals, 3+ corners each team and 30+ match booking points – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

30+ booking points each team – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

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Man City vs Leicester

 

Man City have played 18 games this season

Scored – 44

Conceded – 9

Both teams scored – 5/18

Home games both teams scored – 1/9

over 2.5 goals – 10/18

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/9

Corners – 8.56 (league high)

Corners per home game – 8.44 (league high)

Yellow cards – 1.50

Yellow cards per home game – 1.33

 

Leicester have played 16 league games this season

Scored – 27

Conceded – 27

Both teams scored – 11/16

Away games both teams scored – 8/8

over 2.5 goals – 12/16

Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/8

Corners – 5.13

Corners per Away game – 4.75

Yellow cards – 1.44

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.50

City have scored 11 goals in their last 2 league games after putting 7 past Leeds and 4 past Newcastle. Leicester themselves put 4 past Newcastle as well in their last league game. City will be out for revenge as not only did Leicester beat them 1-0 in the Community Shield at the start of this season, they also won this fixture last year by a 5-2 scoreline, though it’s fair to say Leicester were in better form last season than this. I feel this should be a good watch, all of Leicesters away games this season have had both teams score and 7 out of 8 of them have had at least 3 goals. I expect both teams to score and City to come out on top. Corners also look a good bet with City as usual leading the league in corner stats and Leicester are no slouches as they average over 5 per game on the season. I see City winning 3-1 in a game that has plenty of corners and attacking action to enjoy.

3-1 City correct score – 11/1 bet365 (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 4/5 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/2 Skybet (1 point)

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Norwich vs Arsenal

 

Norwich have played 17 league games this season

Scored – 8

Conceded – 34

Both teams scored – 6/17

Away games both teams scored – 2/8

over 2.5 goals – 9/17

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/8

Corners – 4.59

Corners per home game – 5.89

Yellow cards – 1.94

Yellow cards per Home game – 1.89

 

Arsenal have played 18 league games this season

Scored – 27

Conceded – 23

Both teams scored – 6/18

Away games both teams scored – 3/9

over 2.5 goals – 9/18

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/9

Corners – 5.06

Corners per Away game – 3.89

Yellow cards – 1.44

Yellow cards per Away game – 0.78 (league low)

Norwich lost to Villa in their last league game and come here in the bottom spot on goal difference. Arsenal beat Leeds 4-1 in their last league game and have won their last 3 league games in a row. Arsenal are in good form after bouncing back from a late defeat at Everton with 3 wins, and whilst it remains to be seen if they can mix it with the top teams in the league, they should put Norwich to bed here quite comfortably. Norwich look in massive trouble this season as they are just not showing enough as an attacking threat to give any confidence that they can score the goals to keep them up. I see Arsenal running out comfortable winners by 3 or 4 goals. Corners look a good bet with both sides on the high end of the season averages, cards is a bet I would look to avoid as Arsenal are surprisingly averaging a league low 0.78 yellow cards per away game.

Arsenal to win 3-0 – 10/1 bet365 (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners each half – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

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Spurs vs Crystal Palace

 

Spurs have played 15 games this season

Scored – 18

Conceded – 19

Both teams scored – 5/15

Home games both teams scored – 3/9

over 2.5 goals – 9/15

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/9

Corners – 5.60

Corners per home game – 6.56

Yellow cards – 1.93

Yellow cards per home game – 1.67

 

Palace have played 17 league games this season

Scored – 24

Conceded – 24

Both teams scored – 9/17

Away games both teams scored – 3/8

over 2.5 goals –  10/17

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/8

Corners – 4.35

Corners per Away game – 3.75

Yellow cards – 1.88

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.63

Palace sit in 11th with Spurs in 7th and 6 points separating the two sides. Spurs drew 2-2 at home with Liverpool in their last game which was a thrilling encounter, whilst Palace played out their own entertaining 2-2 draw at home to Southampton. I feel this could be a very good  game to watch as when the sides met earlier in the season Palace beat Spurs 3-0 in a game that had a red card for Tanganga, 3 yellow cards and 10 corners, so I’m hopeful that we could see an entertaining game here today. This will actually be Spurs 5th home league game in a row, and they are unbeaten in the other 4 with 3 wins and 1 draw. I can see Spurs winning as both teams score here in a game where I feel we could see fireworks and cards. Tanganga’s red card in their last game came as a result of Palace not kicking the ball out when Spurs had a man down injured, Wifired Zaha ran with the ball and Tanganga basically rugby tackled him to the floor which sparked a big argument with players from both sides getting involved. Tanganga then made a sloppy change moments later and was sent off. Both these sides have players who have history of being involved in such events, names like Zaha, Tanganga, Son, Hojberg, Gallagher are all no stranger to arguments and being put in the referee’s book, so I feel we could see quite a few cards here. I see Spurs winning 3-1 in a very entertaining game to watch that has plenty of bookings.

Spurs to win and both teams to score – 37/13 10Bet (2 points)

Gallagher, Hojberg, Tanganga and Zaha all to be carded (Only a recommended bet if all players start) – 275/1 Bet365 (½ point)

60+ match booking points – 5/2 Skybet (2 points)

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 booking points – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

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West Ham vs Southampton

 

West Ham have played 17 games this season

Scored -28

Conceded – 21

Both teams scored –  11/17

Home games both teams scored – 7/8

over 2.5 goals – 10/17

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/8

Corners – 5.71

Corners per home game – 5.25

Yellow cards – 1.18

Yellow cards per home game – 1

 

Southampton have played 17 games this season

Scored – 16

Conceded – 26

Both teams scored – 9/17

Home games both teams scored – 4/8

over 2.5 goals – 9/17

Home games over 2.5 goals – 2/8

Corners – 6.12

Corners per away game – 6.12

Yellow cards – 1.88

Yellow cards per home game – 1.89

West Ham are looking to bounce back after losing to Arsenal in their last game whilst Saints drew 2-2 with Palace in their last game. The game ended 0-0 when the sides met earlier this season when Michail Antonio saw red late on. The result looks tough to call here as if you had to pick 1 side it would be West Ham as Southampton have not won any of their last 6 league games, but Southampton have shown fight in some of their games where they have scrapped for a draw. I feel corners and cards are the markets to focus on here, Both sides are on the high end of the corner stats and the card stats are also promising. I don’t see Southampton winning here but feel they could hold on for a draw in a game where both sides have corners and at least 1 player booked by the referee.

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 5/6 Skybet (3 points)

2+ corners each team in each half -11/4 Skybet (2 points)

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Aston Villa vs Chelsea

 

Villa have played 17 games this season

Scored – 29

Conceded – 25

Both teams scored – 9/17

Home games both teams scored – 5/8

over 2.5 goals – 10/17

Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/8

Corners – 5.18

Corners per home game – 4

Yellow cards – 2.06

Yellow cards per home game – 1.75

 

Chelsea have played 18 league games this season

Scored – 39

Conceded – 12

Both teams scored – 8/18

Away games both teams scored – 3/9

over 2.5 goals – 10/18

Away games over 2.5 goals – 5/9

Corners – 6.56

Corners per Away game – 5.78

Yellow cards – 1.50

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.67

Villa come here in 10th spot with Chelsea in 3rd and now 6 points behind league leaders Man City. Chelsea were convincing 3-0 winners when the sides met early this season, though Steven Gerrard has since come in and put his own stamp on this Villa squad who will not be brushed a side so easily by the reigning European champions this time. Villa have scored in 5 of their last 6 league games and considering that Chelsea have conceded in 5 of their last 6 league games, they will be confident of finding the net here. This should be a good game to watch with a vocal Villa Park crowd getting behind their side and creating a good atmosphere. I feel we could easily see both sides score as there is no doubt Chelsea are in a slump right now. Although only 6 points behind City at the halfway point of the season, Chelsea will know the importance of not letting that gap grow any larger. All angles for bets look good in this game, as we should see goals and the stats also suggest a decent chance of corners and cards. It would be no surprise to see Chelsea pinch the win, though in their current form I don’t feel you could back them with anywhere near full confidence.

Over 1.5 goals, over 8.5 corners and over 25 booking points – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Both teams to score in both halves, 2+ corners each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 150/1 Skybet (½ point)

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Brighton vs Brentford

 

Brighton have played 16 league games this season

Scored – 14

Conceded – 17

Both teams scored – 8/16

Away games both teams scored – 5/8

over 2.5 goals – 4/16

Away games over 2.5 goals – 2/8

Corners – 5.06

Corners per home game – 5.63

Yellow cards – 2.31

Yellow cards per home game – 2.13

 

Brentofrd have played 16 league games this season

Scored – 21

Conceded – 22

Both teams scored – 9/16

Away games both teams scored – 5/8

over 2.5 goals – 8/16

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/8

Corners – 3.81

Corners per Away game – 3.13

Yellow cards – 2.06

Yellow cards per Away game – 2.13

Brentford are in 12th with Brighton in 13th as both sides find themselves on 20 points. Brentford have only lost 1 of their last 5 league games, drawing 2 and winning 2. Brighton have not won any of their last 11 league games, and were beaten by Wolves last time out. I feel this game could easily end in a draw as whilst Brighton haven’t been winning, they have drawn 5 of their last 7 leagues and Brentford are hardly a prolific winning team, and Brenftord probably wouldn’t see a draw as a bad result. I expect Brighton to be on the front foot as their supporters have been very vocal about how they feel about recent results, and they are sure to get behind their team here in what they will see as a very winnable game. Cards look a good bet with both sides on the high end of the averages, and corners look good as well as Brighton are usually good for corners and Brentford should at least be able to match their average as they will get attacking opportunities themselves. I don’t see many goals in this one and feel it will end in a draw, or Brighton may just do enough to pinch it by 1 goal.

20+ booking points each team – 11/8 Skybet (2 points)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 1/1 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray