Premier League Final Day – Stats and previews

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Arsenal vs Everton

Arsenal

Scored – 56
Conceded – 47
Both teams scored – 15/37
Home games both teams scored – 9/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/18
Corners – 5.30
Corners per home game – 6.39
Yellow cards – 1.81
Yellow cards per home game – 1.89

Everton

Scored – 42
Conceded – 61
Both teams scored – 19/37
Away games both teams scored – 10/18
Over 2.5 goals – 20/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 11/18
Corners – 4.30
Corners per Away game – 3.67
Yellow cards – 2.16
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.06

Arsenal have lost control of the top 4 race and whatever the result here they will be hoping Norwich can do them a favour and take points off Spurs, otherwise Arsenal will be in The Europa League next season. It will be a disappointing end to the season as top 4 was always the main goal and for much of the season they looked to be on course and in control, but defeats to Spurs and Newcastle have left them needing a favor from Norwich. Everton gained survival in their last game against Palace so can come here and play with a bit of freedom now they are not playing with the threat of relegation hanging over them. This is a difficult game to weigh up, as Arsenal looked very poor against Newcastle, whilst Everton have been poor all season, but they now have a huge weight lifted and for the first time in a long time can approach a game without the anxiety and worry of being in a fight for their lives. I cans see both teams scoring but Arsenal coming out on top. I feel this will not be enough for Arsenal as I expect Spurs to beat Norwich, but I see them ending the season with a win here.

Arsenal to win 3-1 – 11/1 bet365 (1 point)

 

Brentford vs Leeds

Brentford

Scored – 47
Conceded – 54
Both teams scored – 19/37
Home games both teams scored – 7/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 8/18
Corners – 4.22
Corners per home game – 3.74
Yellow cards – 1.65
Yellow cards per home game – 1.50

Leeds

Scored – 40
Conceded – 78
Both teams scored – 21/37
Away games both teams scored – 10/18
Over 2.5 goals – 24/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 12/18
Corners – 4.54
Corners per Away game – 4
Yellow cards – 2.68
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.61

Leeds are level on points with Burnley right now, but they surely have ti better Burnleys result to have any chance of staying up here as they are way behind on goal difference. Even a point for Burnley at home to Newcastle would leave Leeds needing to win here to stay up. It ended in a 2-2 draw when these sides met earlier in the season, and they also have some history from playing each other in The Championship, and I feel like Brentford would love to be the ones to send Leeds down. There is a nice subplot as well with Pontus Jansson having the opportunity to send his old club down to the championship. I can see this being one of the most entertaining games of the day. An early goal could be absolutely huge in this game. If Leeds can score early then they could cause some panic at Burnley as they know they need to win and that could open the Burnley vs Newcastle game up. Where as if Brentford score early, then Burnley know a draw is highly likely to keep them up as Leeds would have to win to go above them, so then Burnley can slow the game down and amble their way to survival. Brentford have surprised me this season as I expected them to go down, and I don’t see them being particularly generous to Leeds here. I see this being one of the best games for bets across the board today. Leeds know they are highly unlikely to keep a clean sheet and defend their way to a win, so I’m hoping they will go on the attack and look to win the game. I can see the game ending in an entertaining draw, similar to the last time they played earlier this season, but ultimately I feel that may not be enough to keep Leeds up.

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

2-2 correct score –  12/1 bet365 (1 point)

70+ match booking points – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Brighton vs West Ham

Brighton

Scored – 39
Conceded – 43
Both teams scored – 17/37
Home games both teams scored – 6/18
Over 2.5 goals – 12/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/18
Corners – 5.27
Corners per home game – 6.28
Yellow cards – 1.92
Yellow cards per home game – 1.72

West Ham

Scored – 59
Conceded – 48
Both teams scored – 23/37
Away games both teams scored – 8/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/18
Corners – 5.24
Corners per Away game – 4.94
Yellow cards – 1.35
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.22

Brighton are unbeaten in their last 4 league games, with draws against Southampton and then Leeds in their last game, but in the middle of those draws they beat Wolves 3-0 and Man United 4-0, so they have ended the season with some very strong results. West Ham drew 2-2 with Man City in their last home game, and what was also the last home game for Mark Noble. The club will be upset that they couldn’t make the final of The Europa League, but they have had a very strong season and now could have an eventful summer in the transfer market, with many of their players like Jarod Bowen and Declan Rice being touted for big money moves. West Ham stoll have something to play for here, they sit 2 points behind Man United who play Crystal Palace on the last day. West Ham have a much better goal difference, so a win here for the Hammers and Man United losing or drawing at Palace would mean West Ham get 6th spot and another shot at The Europa League, rather than the European Conference League that 7th space will get. A win for Brighton would see them break 50 Premier League points in a season which would be a good way to to the season, but ultimately they have nothing major to play for here. Amazingly the last 6 head to head meetings between these sides, all in the Premier League have all ended in score draws, with three 1-1’s, two 2-2’s and a 3-3 in there as well. This is not a game where I have an overly strong opinion but that trend is too clear to ignore and It is definitely worth having a bet on both teams to score and the match to be a draw. Other than that it’s not a game where I have a very strong opinion. It should be entertaining and attacking as both sides will go for the win, but as the stats show this is usually a close game, and I can’t find much to split them here either.

The match to be a Draw and both teams to score – 7/2 BetVictor (1 point)

2-2 correct score – 12/1 bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 11/4 Skybet (1 point)

 

Burnley vs Newcastle

Burnley

Scored – 33
Conceded – 51
Both teams scored – 17/37
Home games both teams scored – 7/18
Over 2.5 goals – 13/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/18
Corners – 4.73
Corners per home game – 5.22
Yellow cards – 1.81
Yellow cards per home game –  1.83

Newcastle

Scored – 42
Conceded – 61
Both teams scored – 20/37
Away games both teams scored – 9/18
Over 2.5 goals – 17/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/18
Corners – 4.27
Corners per Away game – 4.50
Yellow cards – 2.14
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.50

Burnley come here in safety but only thanks to their goal difference. They are level on 35 points with Leeds but a 20 goal better goal difference could be what keeps them in the top flight. They drew with Aston Vills in their last league game and they know that a win here will definitely keep them up. There is a time where this could have been a huge final day relegation decider with Newcastle involved in the relegation picture, but January reinforcements in the transfer window along with the appointment of Wddie Howe has done the job for Newcastle who technically could finish in the top half of the table if they win and other results go their way. I think the main thing here for Burnley is to not lose the game, even a draw here would force Leeds to win their game Away at Brentford and give them a huge chance of staying up. In the last 7 league meetings between these sides Newcastle have won 5, so it won’t be easy for Burnley. Newcastle are a professional side who will want to end in a high, but you have to feel Newcastle will have more intensity and desire in their play. There is no doubt the Burnley dug out will be getting word from Leeds game so will know what they need to do, and if Leeds are not winning then we could see Burnley start to sit in as they know that a point will keep them up. I can see this being a tight game that ends in a draw which I feel will be good enough to keep Burnley up. Other than that it’s not a game where I am going to be backing much as I feel Burnley will be quite happy with a stop/start and disjointed game. I will have a bet in Burnley cards as whether it’s time wasting, professional fouls or kicking the ball away, I can see them doing whatever it takes here.

1-1 draw correct score – 6/1 bet365 (1 point)

40+ Burnley booking points – 10/3 Skybet (1 point)

 

Chelsea vs Watford

Chelsea

Scored – 74
Conceded – 32
Both teams scored – 18/37
Home games both teams scored – 11/18
Over 2.5 goals – 19/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/18
Corners – 6.43
Corners per home game – 7.50
Yellow cards – 1.70
Yellow cards per home game – 1.70

Watford

Scored – 33
Conceded – 75
Both teams scored – 18/37
Away games both teams scored – 7/18
Over 2.5 goals – 20/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 7/18
Corners – 4.27
Corners per Away game – 4.17
Yellow cards – 1.70
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.56

With Watford being already relegated and Chelsea having surely secured 3rd spot, ad they are 3 points ahead of Spurs with an 18 better goal difference, this is another game that really doesn’t have too much riding on it, which makes it slightly difficult to weigh up. Chelsea will want to end the season in a high and are clearly the better side, so we should see a pretty routine win for them in front of their home fans. They drew 1-1 with Leicester in their last home league game as Watford also played Leicester in their last league game, but were beaten 5-1. I feel we could see Chelsea score a few goals here and put Watford to the sword. Both sides will almost be glad to see the end of this season as Watford prep for another push for promotions from the championship next season, and Chelsea have pressing off the field matters to deal with as well. This could be the final Chelsea game for a few players, such as Azpilicueta, Rudiger and Christensen, so I expect them to look to end with a big home win. I can see Rudiger being willing ti pull the trigger if he gets the chance to shoot, so a couple of bets on him with shots on target or to score may not be the worst bet here as well.

Chelsea to score 4+ goals – 15/8 Skybet (2 points)

Chelsea to win 5-0 – 18/1 bet365 (1 point)

Antonio Rudiger to have 1+ shot on target – 7/4 Skybet (2 points)

Antonio Rudiger to have 2+ shots on target – 11/1 Skybet (1 point)

Antonio Rudiger to score from outside the penalty are – 16/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Crystal Palace vs Man United

Crystal Palace

Scored – 49
Conceded – 46
Both teams scored – 19/37
Home games both teams scored – 9/18
Over 2.5 goals -19/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/18
Corners – 4.65
Corners per home game – 4.89
Yellow cards –  1.81
Yellow cards per home game – 1.78

Man United

Scored – 57
Conceded – 56
Both teams scored – 22/37
Away games both teams scored – 12/18
Over 2.5 goals –  19/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 11/18
Corners – 5.16
Corners per Away game – 5.33
Yellow cards – 1.97
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.33

In their last 5 league games United have had 4 put past them by Liverpool, 3 by Arsenal and then in their last league game a couple of weeks ago they were beaten 4-0 by Brighton Away from home. It’s been a rough season for United fans and it’s ending the same way, with the only glimmer of light being that Erik Ten Haag is coming in this summer, so they know what the future looks like as they search for the man who can lead the rebuild at Old Trafford. Palace have been in the headlines for off the field issues since their loss to Everton, with the Premier League and Merseyside Police investigating the incident that saw Patrick Viera kick out at an Everton fan after the pitch invasion that followed his clubs 3-2 defeat away at Everton. Both clubs will want to end the season on a high, but ultimately there really isn’t anything riding on this game. The last 7 head to head matches, all in the Premier League have seen 3 wins for United, 2 wins for Palace and 2 draws, so it’s been an evenly matched fixture in recent times. United haven’t played for 2 weeks so could be rusty, and their players will just want this season to end so that they can have a break and focus on next season. Palace will have some frustration from their last game and will want to end the season on  a high in front of their own fans, so I feel this could be an entertaining game. We could also see a lot of Man United players make their final appearance for the club before moving on. This is not a game where I’m going to back anything at short odds, but I feel we could see United win a high scoring game, and I feel it could be end to end to corners is not a bad bet either, but with both these teams there is a lot of question marks, so I won’t be backing anything at short odds here.

Man United to win 3-2 – 25/1 bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 3/1 Skybet (1 point)

 

Leicester vs Southampton

Leicester

Scored – 58
Conceded – 58
Both teams scored – 25/37
Home games both teams scored – 9/18
Over 2.5 goals – 23/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 11/18
Corners – 4.92
Corners per home game – 5
Yellow cards – 1.46
Yellow cards per home game – 1.22

Southampton

Scored – 42
Conceded – 63
Both teams scored – 22/37
Away games both teams scored – 11/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 13/18
Corners – 6.22
Corners per Away game – 6.44
Yellow cards – 1.73
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.72

This is not a game that I am going to be focusing on too much. I feel it could be quite an entertaining game to watch. Just both sides have been pretty inconsistent this season and on the final day with nothing to play for, I really don’t know what to expect here. Leicester are unbeaten in their last 3 league games, ad they put 3 past already relegated Norwich and then 5 past Watford who are also championship bound, they then drew 1-1 with Chelsea in their last league game. Southampton have lost their last 3 league games, to Brentford, Palace and then less surprisingly Liverpool, so I guess on form you have to make Leicester favourites. I will have a small bet on Leicester to win an exciting game with a few goals, and also on corners as both sides have very respectable corner averages, but other than that this is not a game where I’m going to be having many bets.

Leicester to win 3-1 – 14/1 bet365 (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

 

Liverpool vs Wolves

Liverpool

Scored – 91
Conceded – 25
Both teams scored – 15/37
Home games both teams scored – 6/18
Over 2.5 goals – 23/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 10/18
Corners – 7.49
Corners per home game – 8.06
Yellow cards – 1.32
Yellow cards per home game – 1.22

Wolves

Scored – 37
Conceded – 40
Both teams scored – 13/37
Away games both teams scored – 5/18
Over 2.5 goals – 13/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/18
Corners – 4.46
Corners per Away game – 4.28
Yellow cards – 1.68
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.61

Liverpool come here 1 point behind City in the league table, and they also have the champions League final next weekend against Real Madrid. Liverpool are relying on a favor from a club legend as Steven Gerrard takes his Aston Villa side to The Etihad to play Man City, and should he manage to take points off City with either a win or a draw, then Liverpool would win the league with a win here. Liverpool should focus in the task at hand though, as whilst it’s fair to question what mindset Wolves will have when they show up here, they are no mugs are were very close to taking points off Liverpool earlier this season  and would have done so but for an injury time winner from Liverpool. I expect Liverpool to win this game, but ultimately I do not see them winning the title as I expect City to take care of Villa. I don’t see this being a vintage game, as whilst Wolves have had a good season they have put in some performances lately that make it fair to question if they are still 100% switched on mentally. Should Liverpool take the lead early then I feel we could see quite  a slow game as Liverpool control possession not wanting to risk too much. I don’t think it will be a cricket score, but I see this being a clean home win for Liverpool ad they just come up short in the title race, but they turn their attention to The Champions League final and gaining revenge on Real Madrid.

Liverpool to win 3-0 – 6/1 bet365 (1 point)

Liverpool to win both halves – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

 

Man City vs Aston Villa

Man City

Scored – 96
Conceded – 24
Both teams scored – 14/37
Home games both teams scored – 6/18
Over 2.5 goals – 22/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 12/18
Corners – 8.19
Corners per home game – 8.72
Yellow cards – 1.14
Yellow cards per home game – 0.89 

Aston Villa

Scored – 50
Conceded – 51
Both teams scored – 19/37
Away games both teams scored – 8/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 10/18
Corners – 5.27
Corners per Away game – 5.83
Yellow cards – 2.11
Yellow cards per Away game – 2.56

City come here chasing another Premier League title, and they know that a win here will guarantee they are lifting the trophy. City have won all of the last 8 and 11 of the last 12 head to head meetings against Villa, though 3 of the last 4 wins have all been by 2-1 scorelines, so it’s not a game that they have dominated. There are a couple of fascinating sub plots to this game with Liverpool chasing City for the title, and Villa being managed by Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard makes it a very interesting match up, then we also have Jack Grealish potentially winning his first ever league title against the club he joined City from, which would be a fairytale for him, but we could also see his boyhood club deny him winning his first league title, which would arguably be a better and definitely more surprising story. In some ways I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see much drama here. I can see City coming out all guns blazing and feel we could see them a goal or 2 up early. They will not want the game to go into the second half or later with the sides level, especially if Liverpool were in the lead against Wolves, so I expect a fast start from Peps men and even if they go 1 goal up, I do not see them stopping there as they press for the 2 goal advantage. Other than that it’s not a game where I am going to be putting up lots of different bets, ad I feel we will see a routine win for Peps side who lift another Premier League trophy

City to score 3+ goals – 8/11 Skybet (3 points)

City to win both halves – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

 

Norwich vs Spurs

Norwich

Scored – 23
Conceded – 79
Both teams scored – 14/37
Home games both teams scored – 8/18
Over 2.5 goals – 22/37
Home games over 2.5 goals – 12/18
Corners – 4.38
Corners per home game – 5.39
Yellow cards – 1.46
Yellow cards per home game – 1.44 

Spurs

Scored – 64
Conceded – 40
Both teams scored – 14/37
Away games both teams scored – 7/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/37
Away games over 2.5 goals – 8/18
Corners – 5.16
Corners per Away game – 4.83
Yellow cards – 1.84
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.89

Spurs know that a win here will see them qualify for next seasons Champions League, ahead of rivals Arsenal. They couldn’t ask for a better opponent on the final day as they take on, as all Norwich have to play for is to avoid finishing bottom of the table, as whatever happens they will be back in The Championship next season. Spurs have won 4 of the last 5 league meetings against Norwich and I see them keeping up that trend here. There has been a lot of talk about Antonio Conte and will he stay at Spurs next season, he has made it clear that he will make certain demands in the transfer window, and Champions League football will only help him as that should lead to more funds available and a bigger pull in the transfer market as they can offer premium European football to potential targets. Its another final day of the season where we question could this be the last time we see Harry Kane in a Spurs shirt, he turns 29 this summer and whilst he is on course to break all sorts of goal scoring records, he is yet to win any notable Silverware at Club level and you have to think that he will be looking to fix that, and if Spurs are not the best Club for him to do that at them he may move. Though with Haaland signing for City you would have to think the only English Clubs that could be potential options for him are Chelsea, Liverpool and possibly Man United, though whether Kane would want to be part of a rebuild at a club like United right now is an entirely different question. Whatever happens in the summer he will want to end the season on a high here and securing top 4 will be something at least. I see this being a pretty routine win for Spurs, they should be able to control the game and when they get their chances the likes of Kane and Son can be deadly. I see Spurs scoring after goals here as they pip their London Rivals Arsenal to a spot in The Champions League next season.

Spurs to score 3+ goals – 10/11 Skybet (2 points)

Spurs to win both halves – 6/4 Skybet (2 points)

Spurs to win 4-0 – 12/1 bet365 (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray