Newcastle vs Arsenal – stats and best bets Monday 16th May

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Newcastle

Scored – 40
Conceded – 61
Both teams scored – 20/36
Home games both teams scored – 11/18
Over 2.5 goals – 17/36
Home games over 2.5 goals – 9/18
Corners – 4.06
Corners per home game – 3.61
Yellow cards – 2.19
Yellow cards per home game – 1.89

Arsenal

Scored – 56
Conceded – 45
Both teams scored – 15/36
Away games both teams scored – 6/18
Over 2.5 goals – 21/36
Away games over 2.5 goals – 11/18
Corners – 5.22
Corners per Away game – 4.06
Yellow cards – 1.78
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.67

Arsenal come here on the back of seeing their 4 game winning run ended by Spurs in their last game as they were beaten 3-0 after going down to 10 men in the first half. They now sit in 5th, 2 points behind 4th placed Spurs, but they do have a game in hand so are still in control of their own fate, but anything other than a win here will see them go into the final day knowing that they will need a favour. Newcastle are in 14 at the time of writing and are all set to finish in a pretty bunched mid table set of teams,  with just 8 points separating 9th and 15th. Arsenal have an incredible head to head record against Newcastle, having won 18 of the last 19 head to head matches in all competitions. The last 7 head to head matches have seen Arsenal win them all without conceding a single goal, so this is a fixture that Arsenal have dominated, with just 1 win for Newcastle in the last 12 years against The Gunners. This could be a very entertaining game,Newcastle can play with freedom, but in their final home game of the season, they would love to give their fans a memorable and rare victory against Arsenal, and Arsenal simply have to win, anything less and Spurs go into the final day in control of 4th spot. Despite the recent form, I feel there is a good chance both teams score in this game,Newcastle have struggled against Arsenal recently, but Arsenal have conceded in all of their last 8 league games in a row, and Newcastle, especially at home will create chances. I see it being a tight relatively high scoring game, and feel we could see a draw, though I would not be surprised if Arsenal pinch this by the odd goal. They seem to have always just done enough to hold on to 4th spot this season Arsenal, and when they need a result to tend to find something. I feel corners and cards are both good potential angles as well. Newcastle are a proud team and in front of home fans they are definitely not the type to turn up with a nothing to play for attitude, and it would be a nightmare for Arsenal to lose 4th spot now, so they will be right up for it. I see this being a good game to watch and feel Arsenal will just sneak past Newcastle in a high scoring game.

Arsenal to win 3-2 – 25/1 Bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 6/1 Skybet (1 point)

2+ corners each team in each half – 7/2 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray