Man United vs Chelsea – stats and best bets – Thursday 28th April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

Man United

Scored – 53
Conceded – 51
Both teams scored – 21/34
Home games both teams scored – 9/17
Over 2.5 goals – 17/34
Home games over 2.5 goals – 7/17
Corners – 5.29
Corners per home game – 5.29
Yellow cards – 2.06
Yellow cards per home game – 1.76

Chelsea

Scored – 67
Conceded – 27
Both teams scored – 15/32
Away games both teams scored – 6/16
Over 2.5 goals – 17/32
Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/16
Corners – 6.31
Corners per home game – 5.13
Yellow cards – 1.63
Yellow cards per home game – 1.56

United come here having won just 1 of their last 6 games in all competitions, and that was a 3-2 home win against Norwich where they needed a hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo to get all 3 points. They were then beaten 4-0 by Liverpool and 3-1 by Arsenal in their last game, where to be fair some key decisions went against them as they looked a little bit better, but ultimately they left with nothing. Chelsea beat West Ham 1-0 in their last league game to bounce back from a 4-2 home defeat to Arsenal. Tuchel’s side have the FA Cup final to focus on, but they have only won 1 of the last 10 head to head meetings with Man United in all competitions so they will be desperate to improve that recent statistic. The last 3 meetings between these sides have all ended in draws, with a 1-1 last time out coming after back to back 0-0 draws. Chelsea will be clear favourites here but at home I feel United could easily at least get a draw. United have got a battle on to get any kind of European Football for next season, so whilst Chelsea are the better team, United need the points more in this one. Chelsea’s defensive stability under Tuchel has been missing in recent games, with them uncharacteristically getting involved in end to end high scoring games. I feel we could see another one here. Both teams scoring looks a very good angle on the game. Corners and cards also look solid as there are plenty of players on both sides who know what this fixture means. Chelsea have only won once at Old Trafford in the last 9 years, so they would love to give their fans a rare victory here. I see this being end to end, United’s best hope will be their pace on the counter attack, which can definitely cause Chelsea problems. Chelsea will look to use their overlapping wing backs to out number United in attacking situations, which sets this game up nicely as Chelsea’s style will play into United’s hands and give them chances to counter. I see a close game that ends in a 2-2 draw, with lots of attacking action and opportunity for winning bets.

2-2 correct score – 14/1 bet365 (1 point)

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 20+ booking points each team – 5/1 Skybet (1 point)

A goal in each half and 3+ corners in each half – 5/4 Skybet (3 points)

Author: Eva Gray