Burnley vs Watford – Stats and best bets – Saturday 5th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

 

Burnley

Scored – 16

Conceded – 27

Both teams scored – 10/18

Home games both teams scored – 4/7

over 2.5 goals – 8/18

Home games over 2.5 goals – 3/7

Corners – 4.50

Corners per home game – 6

Yellow cards – 2.06

Yellow cards per home game – 2.57

 

Watford

Scored – 23

Conceded – 40

Both teams scored – 11/20

Away games both teams scored – 5/9

over 2.5 goals – 11/20

Away games over 2.5 goals – 4/9

Corners – 4.35

Corners per Away game – 4.11

Yellow cards – 1.95

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.78

The bottom two sides in the Premier League meet in what could be a crucial game in terms of who goes down this season. It has to be said there is a quite realistic chance that this could be a Championship game next season. Picking up points here could be crucial for both sides as many of the teams around them have either found new form or have used the transfer window to strengthen their squad. Newcastle and Everton have both made new signings which they hope will move them clear of the relegation fight, with Norwich winning their last 2 and looking a new side from their early season exploits, plus Leeds will have players returning from injury and they themselves have won 2 of their last 3 games, so both these sides will know they have their work cut out. Burnley find themselves bottom of the table but have a minimum of 2 games in hand on every other side in the league, and as many as 4 or even 5 games in hand on others, and a win here would see them move off the bottom of the table. Burnley did manage a draw in their last game away at Arsenal where as usual Sean Dyche set his team up to be very difficult to break down. Watford suffered a crushing 3-0 home defeat to Norwich in their last league game, and know that another defeat here could be a crushing blow come the end of the season. The revolving managerial door at Watford saw the defeat to Norwich be the last straw for Claudio Ranieri as he was axed shortly after with Roy Hodgson being given the wheel at Vicarage Road. Hodgson will need to use all of his experience if he is to see Watford playing premier league football again next season. I see this being quite a cagey game where neither side takes any risks early. Watford with a new manager will likely set up to be tough to beat and play on the counter, as they have the pace to hurt Burnley. Burnley always set up to be difficult to break down, but I do feel this is a game where Sean Dyche would look at a point as a disappointing result, and feel he will be desperate for all 3 points here. I see a relatively low scoring and old fashioned game of football with neither side giving an inch, though I do favour Burnley to get the win in front of their home fans. This should be quite an even game so both sides should at least match their corner average, though the stats suggest cards could be the standout bet, and with the nature of this game I expect both sides to be bang up for it and that can easily spill over and see the referee reaching for his pocket.

Burnley to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/6 Skybet (3 points)

60+ match booking points – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray