Burnley vs Southampton – Stats and best bets – Thursday 21st April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Burnley

Scored – 26
Conceded – 45
Both teams scored – 14/31
Home games both teams scored – 6/15
over 2.5 goals – 11/31
Home games over 2.5 goals – 5/15
Corners – 4.65
Corners per home game – 5.13
Yellow cards – 1.81
Yellow cards per home game – 1.80

Southampton

Scored – 38
Conceded – 52
Both teams scored – 19/32
Away games both teams scored – 10/15
over 2.5 goals – 17/32
Away games over 2.5 goals – 11/15
Corners – 6.25
Corners per Away game – 6.20
Yellow cards – 1.81
Yellow cards per Away game – 1.87

This game is crucial for Burnley whatever happens, but the result of Everton’s match against Leicester on Monday night could have a huge impact on the situation Burnley find themselves in before this game. A win for Everton would have Burbley 6 points behind and 6 points from safety, where as if Everton lose this game could give Burnley the opportunity to move level on points with Everton, and possibly above them on goal difference. Southampton sit in 12th spot at the time of writing, and whilst they are professional footballers so always have something to play for, they have no immediate important goal that they are trying to achieve other than ending the season strong. It ended 2-2 when the sides met earlier this season and Southampton beat Burnley 3-2 in their meeting at the end of last season, so it is a game that has produced goals in recent games. I feel there is a good chance we could see both teams here. Southampton games especially Away from home have been seeing a lot of goals, and Burnley are in a situation where they have to roll the dice and try to win games. So especially if we get an early goal in this game I feel we could see a few goals, as Southampton can play with freedom and Burnley need to score goals. Southampton actually have the 3rd highest Away corner average in the league, and at home Burnley are pretty consistent with corners, so that looks like a very strong angle. Cards is a slightly difficult angle to weigh up as technically really only 1 side have something crucial to play for, I feel we should see a few cards but it’s not a game where I am going ti push card bets too high. I see this being an entertaining game where like recent games between these sides, we see a few goals and a close game.

Both teams to score, 1+ corner each team in each half and 10+ booking points each team – 5/2 Skybet (2 points)

2+ corners each team in each half – 5/2 (2 points)

2-2 correct score – 16/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray