Burnley vs Everton stats and best bets – Wednesday 6th April

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

 

Burnley

Scored – 22

Conceded – 40

Both teams scored – 12/28

Home games both teams scored – 5/14

over 2.5 goals – 10/28

Home games over 2.5 goals – 4/14

Corners – 4.43

Corners per home game – 4.86

Yellow cards – 1.82

Yellow cards per home game – 1.79

 

Everton

Scored – 30

Conceded – 49

Both teams scored – 14/28 

Away games both teams scored – 8/14

over 2.5 goals – 16/28

Away games over 2.5 goals – 9/14

Corners – 4.14

Corners per Away game – 3.21 

Yellow cards – 2.18

Yellow cards per Away game – 2

Burnley have lost their last 4 league games without scoring a goal, they sit in 19th spot, 4 points behind Everton. Everton have lost 5 of their last 6 league games, and have had a player sent off in all of their last 3 league games. A lot of people, myself included, expected Everton to start climbing the table after the January transfer window saw them bring players in and Frank Lampard was given the manager’s job. The ex Chelsea midfielder still has a lot of questions to answer about if he is the right man to keep Everton in the top flight, with some of his tactical decisions being met with raised eyebrows by the Everton faithful. Everton won 3-1 when the sides met earlier this season, and this game looks like it could be crucial come the end of the season. Relegation for Everton would be an absolute nightmare, no club likes going down obviously, but it would be a very dark day on the blue side of Merseyside if that did happen. Both these clubs have games in hand on teams around them at the bottom, but both are getting near the make or break stage now. I see this being a very cagey game. Everton undoubtedly have an edge when it comes to the overall class and quality in their squad, but Burnley and the way that they set up will make this a very interesting game. I feel the type of game this will become probably favors Burnley more than it does Everton. I think both sides  will have to go direct at times and both will need to be switched on defensively. On current form it is very difficult to find anything to split the two sides, and I don’t see there being much between them on the pitch. On the face of it a point does not appear to be the worst result for Everton, but they have a pretty horrible run in to their season, as they still have to play Man United, Leicester twice, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal, as well as Crystal Palace who as we saw last night are a tough team to play against. Both these sides know they probably won’t get many better opportunities to get 3 points than this, and I expect both to look for the win. Goals look a tough market, as neither side can be trusted in front of goal. With two inconsistent teams I could be wrong but I don’t see many goals in this one. I feel corners and cards are the angles to focus on in this game. Neither side are putting up massive corner numbers, but they will both get more attacking opportunities against each other than they would against most other teams in the league, and I feel both sides will look to be direct with balls into the box and shots at goal so we should see a few corners here. Cards look to be the best angle. Everton have been given a red card in all of their last 3 league games and with how much both teams have to play for, I feel the referee will be taking a few names in this one. With nothing to split the sides, I feel whilst this game may lack quality, that it should be an enjoyable game to watch from a neutral fans point of view, and I see it ending in a hard fought low scoring draw.

The match to be a draw – 11/5 Skybet (2 points)

3+ corners each team and 10+ booking points each team – 4/6 Skybet (3 points)

20+ booking points each team – 1/1 Skybet (2 points)

70+ match booking points – 4/1 Skybet (1 point)

Author: Eva Gray