Arsenal vs Wolves – stats and best bets – Thursday 24th February

Although the best bets in this write up are backed up by statistics they are not certainties and still could lose. I will use the statistics to point out likely events in these games, and the best bets are the types of bets that I believe stand a good chance of coming in. The best bets will vary in price as this is a case of taking what the stats give us, rather than trying to force bets for the sake of it. I will be as transparent as possible in each write up about why I feel each bet is best bet material. All bets are rated on a 1-3 points system of how strong we believe the chance of it happening is, with 3 being the strongest. This is just an indication of my confidence and should not be taken as advice on what amount to place on a bet, you should only bet what you can afford to lose.

Arsenal vs Wolves

 

Arsenal

Scored – 36

Conceded – 26

Both teams scored – 8/23

Home games both teams scored – 5/12

over 2.5 goals – 12/23

Home games over 2.5 goals – 6/12

Corners – 5.65

Corners per home game – 7.25

Yellow cards – 1.70

Yellow cards per home game – 2.08

 

Wolves

Scored – 23

Conceded – 18

Both teams scored – 7/24

Away games both teams scored – 3/12

over 2.5 goals – 6/24

Away games over 2.5 goals – 2/12

Corners – 4.46

Corners per Away game – 4.58

Yellow cards – 1.83

Yellow cards per Away game – 1.83

6th placed Arsenal play 7th placed Wolves, with Bruno Lage’s men knowing that  a win here would see them jump above Mikel Arteta’s side in the table, perhaps just temporarily though as Arsenal do have a game in hand on Wolves. These sides met in the league just 2 weeks ago, where despite going down to 10 men Arsenal clung on for a 1-0 win, and I can see another hard fought and closely contested game here. Wolves have actually won 2 of the last 3 head to head meetings, both in the Premier League as they did the double over Arsenal last season, beating them by a 2-1 scoreline both times. It’s no surprise that the game two weeks ago was soo close. You look at the goal stats of both teams and they have both been low all season. Wolves have an obvious style of play, which whilst it may not be entertaining for the neutral, it has been effective. Arsenal have been a bit surprising as they are not normally the type of side you would associate with grinding out results, but a lot of their wins this season have been based off a good defensive effort to get them over the line. In terms of goals this is a very tough game to call. It’s not a market that I am looking to play. I feel it’s likely we see a very similar game to 2 weeks ago, where 1 goal could easily prove the difference, or we see a draw by a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline. The game two weeks ago saw 11 corners (7 for Wolves and 4 for Arsenal) and 5 yellow and 1 red card (2 yellows for Wolves and 3 yellows plus a red for Arsenal) and I think corners and cards are again the best place to focus bets here. Arsenal’s corner average at home is very good at over 7 corners a game, and I feel we could see them better that total here tonight. Should the game play out as I expect, Wolves will frustrate Arsenal and be very compact and difficult to beat. So I can see Arsenal having a lot of possession in the Wolvess half and around the Wolves box, and the shots and crosses from this pressure could lead to a high Arsenal corner count. Cards are another confident bet as to be blunt, both sides have players who can be nightmares for referee’s. Whilst Arteta seems to have made Arsenal a more defensively solid unit, they still have this streak of players doing stupid or crazy things under pressure. Players like Xhaka and Gabriel are almost ticking timebombs who at any moment could put in a reckless challenge or do something they don’t need to do. Wolves are a physical side but also I think they are the worst team in the league this season when it comes to play acting, diving, time wasting and trying to get other teams in trouble with the referee, you add in a hard fought football game which should be close throughout, and you have a recipe for cards. In my opinion the most likely result is a either a draw, or Arsenal pinch it by 1 goal, but that opinion is not strong enough for me to be betting on it, instead I will focus on corners and cards, in what should be at times an old fashioned game of football with neither side giving an inch.

9+ Arsenal corners – 9/4 Skybet (1 point)

60+ match booking points – 5/2 Skybet (1 point)

20+ booking points each team – 11/10 Skybet (2 points)

Author: Eva Gray